Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Distribution of events of positive selection and population differentiation in a metabolic pathway: the case of asparagine N-glycosylation

Asparagine N-Glycosylation is one of the most important forms of protein post-translational modification in eukaryotes. This metabolic pathway can be subdivided into two parts: an upstream sub-pathway required for achieving proper folding for most of the proteins synthesized in the secretory pathway, and a downstream sub-pathway required to give variability to trans-membrane proteins, and involved in adaptation to the environment and innate immunity. Here we analyze the nucleotide variability of the genes of this pathway in human populations, identifying which genes show greater population differentiation and which genes show signatures of recent positive selection. We also compare how these signals are distributed between the upstream and the downstream parts of the pathway, with the aim of exploring how forces of population differentiation and positive selection vary among genes involved in the same metabolic pathway but subject to different functional constraints. Our results show that genes in the downstream part of the pathway are more likely to show a signature of population differentiation, while events of positive selection are equally distributed among the two parts of the pathway. Moreover, events of positive selection are frequent on genes that are known to be at bifurcation points, and that are identified as being in key position by a network-level analysis such as MGAT3 and GCS1. These findings indicate that the upstream part of the Asparagine N-Glycosylation pathway has lower diversity among populations, while the downstream part is freer to tolerate diversity among populations. Moreover, the distribution of signatures of population differentiation and positive selection can change between parts of a pathway, especially between parts that are exposed to different functional constraints. Our results support the hypothesis that genes involved in constitutive processes can be expected to show lower population differentiation, while genes involved in traits related to the environment should show higher variability. Taken together, this work broadens our knowledge on how events of population differentiation and of positive selection are distributed among different parts of a metabolic pathway.

Cultural events and tourist development in Catalonia (Spain)

From the point of view of local development cultural tourism events represent an opportunity since they are distributed homogeneously by the Catalan territory and are experiencing a vertiginous growth as a way to differentiate the existing supply. In our study a sample of 264 telephone surveys made to organizers of events in Catalonia has been compiled, with the purpose of characterizing the existing supply, thematic typologies, management models, commercialization inputs and economic impact. The results allow us to characterize events from the point of view of their tourist potential. Finally some recommendations are set out to develop future tourism policies based on events according to product differentiation, seasonality, competitiveness and creativity.

Cultural events as tourism supply in coastal Catalan resorts

During the last three decades, the number of tourism events has been growing in Catalan coastal resorts because of the recover of Catalan cultural traditions, festivals and folklore, and also because of tourism growth. Catalan tourism resorts use events as catalysers for new supply and as a mean to differentiate and singularize themselves from their competitors. The tourism potential of cultural events is undeniable but there are some problems that prevent a more effective impact as economic and regional development agents. This paper reflects some discussions and conclusions obtained from the analysis of 264 valid responses of a survey made to different Catalan event organizers in 2008 and 2009. We describe and characterize cultural event supply in coastal resorts in order to study the events tourism importance, their capacity to generate and spread economic development, and their managerial model. The analysis is made in a geographical basis, comparing the results of the territorial organization of events of the city of Barcelona, coastal and inland municipalities. Finally some considerations about event regional tourism policy and tourism development are discussed.

Social Media in health. What are the safety concerns for healthcare consumers?

Recent literature has discussed the unintended consequences of clinical information technologies (IT) on patient safety, yet there has been little discussion about the safety concerns in the area of consumer health IT. This paper presents a range of safety concerns for consumers in social media, with a case study on YouTube. We conducted a scan of abstracts on 'quality criteria' related to YouTube. Five areas regarding the safety of YouTube for consumers were identifi ed: (a) harmful health material targeted at consumers (such as inappropriate marketing of tobaccoor direct-to-consumer drug advertising); (b) public display of unhealthy behaviour (such as people displaying self-injury behaviours or hurting others); (c) tainted public health messages (i.e. the rise of negative voices againstpublic health messages); (d) psychological impact from accessing inappropriate, offensive or biased social media content; and (e) using social media to distort policy and research funding agendas. The examples presented should contribute to a better understanding about how to promote a safe consumption and production of social media for consumers, and an evidence-based approach to designing social media interventions for health. The potential harm associated with the use of unsafe social media content on the Internet is a major concern. More empirical and theoretical studies are needed to examine how social media infl uences consumer health decisions, behaviours and outcomes, and devise ways to deter the dissemination of harmful infl uences in social media.

Análisis arqueomorfológico y dinámica territorial en el Vallés Oriental (Barcelona) de la Protohistoria s. VI-V a.C.) a la alta Edad Media (s. IX-X)

La investigación sobre el paisaje en zonas urbanas o periurbanas implica importantes limitaciones metodológicas. En el presente estudio, el trabajo se centra en un llano pre-litoral próximo a la ciudad de Barcelona, el Vallès Oriental, profundamente urbanizado en las últimas dos décadas, hecho que condiciona la recuperación de nuevos datos arqueológicos y la implementación de programas de prospección arqueológica. Asimismo, la particular topografía que presenta el llano, caracterizado por unos relieves suaves, ha obligado a adaptar la metodología del análisis arqueomorfológico a este contexto geográfico. El artículo presenta los resultados del análisis arqueomorfológico realizado, que han sido cruzados con la documentación histórica y arqueológica para caracterizar —desde una perspectiva diacrónica— la red viaria, la estructuración territorial y la evolución del poblamiento de esta área y, finalmente, determinar las dinámicas del paisaje en época romana. La investigación sobre la morfología del territorio se ha llevado a cabo a partir de un intenso trabajo de fotointerpretación y análisis de la cartografía histórica en entorno SIG, especialmente útil en un paisaje marcado por las importantes trasformaciones del medio rural. Igualmente, los datos generados en los últimos años por la investigación arqueológica han sido revisados de forma detallada, a fin de contribuir a la planificación de las prospecciones arqueológicas y arqueomorfológicas desarrolladas.

Proyecto para la unificación de la red de media tensión de la ciudad de Lleida

El projecte, proposa el canvi de 11 a 25 Kv de la xarxa de mitja tensió de la ciutat de Lleida, amb l'objectiu d'unificar sistemes, avançar cap a una convergència d'unificació de tensions, homogeneïtzar l'explotació, eliminar equips obsolets, reducció d'estocs, etc.

Relación entre variables de personalidad e interés por temas morbosos y sexuales en los mass media: réplica del estudio de Zuckerman y Litle en una muestra española

Este trabajo pretende replicar con muestras españolas un estudio americano diseñado para evaluar las relaciones entre el rasgo Búsquesa de Sensaciones, Extraversión, Neuroticismo y Psicoticismo, con el interés por la contemplación o lectura de sucesos violentos, morbosos y sexuales en los medios de comunicación (o reales). El estudio se realizó a partir de inventarios autoinformados de curiosidad morbosa, cuestionarios de personalidad y autopuntuaciones de asistencia a películas pornográficas y de terror. Los resultados obtenidos informan de una relación positiva entre las escalas de Búsqueda de Sensaciones (EBS) y las escalas de Curiosidad Morbosa (CTM-CTS). Ello sugiere como hipótesis que los altos buscadores de sensaciones podrían estar interesados en estímulos que aumentan la actividad del sistema central de catecolaminas. Para ello se parte de hallazgos experimentales previos que apuntan que películas morbosas de terror o sexuales aumentan los niveles de las catecolaminas periféricas.

La "Materia de Bretaña" en las culturas hispánicas de la Edad Media y el Renacimiento : textos, ediciones y estudios

La publicación en 1977 de "A critical bibliography of Hispanic Arthurial material", de Harvey L. Sharrer (Londres, Grant & Cutler) contribuyó a un mejor conocimiento de los textos conservados, ediciones y estudios de la literatura artúrica y tristaniana medieval en España y Portugal. Treinta años después, este artículo amplía los contenidos de aquel volumen, al recoger los resultados del descubrimiento de nuevos testimonios y de las últimas investigaciones sobre este ámbito, en lengua catalana, gallego-portuguesa y castellana de la Edad Media.

The first SEPServer event catalogue 68-MeV solar proton events observed at 1 AU in 1996-2010

SEPServer is a three-year collaborative project funded by the seventh framework programme (FP7-SPACE) of the European Union. The objective of the project is to provide access to state-of-the-art observations and analysis tools for the scientific community on solar energetic particle (SEP) events and related electromagnetic (EM) emissions. The project will eventually lead to better understanding of the particle acceleration and transport processes at the Sun and in the inner heliosphere. These processes lead to SEP events that form one of the key elements of space weather. In this paper we present the first results from the systematic analysis work performed on the following datasets: SOHO/ERNE, SOHO/EPHIN, ACE/EPAM, Wind/WAVES and GOES X-rays. A catalogue of SEP events at 1 AU, with complete coverage over solar cycle 23, based on high-energy (~68-MeV) protons from SOHO/ERNE and electron recordings of the events by SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM are presented. A total of 115 energetic particle events have been identified and analysed using velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) for protons and time-shifting analysis (TSA) for electrons and protons in order to infer the SEP release times at the Sun. EM observations during the times of the SEP event onset have been gathered and compared to the release time estimates of particles. Data from those events that occurred during the European day-time, i.e., those that also have observations from ground-based observatories included in SEPServer, are listed and a preliminary analysis of their associations is presented. We find that VDA results for protons can be a useful tool for the analysis of proton release times, but if the derived proton path length is out of a range of 1 AU < s[3 AU, the result of the analysis may be compromised, as indicated by the anti-correlation of the derived path length and release time delay from the asso ciated X-ray flare. The average path length derived from VDA is about 1.9 times the nominal length of the spiral magnetic field line. This implies that the path length of first-arriving MeV to deka-MeV protons is affected by interplanetary scattering. TSA of near-relativistic electrons results in a release time that shows significant scatter with respect to the EM emissions but with a trend of being delayed more with increasing distance between the flare and the nominal footpoint of the Earth-connected field line.

Geofluid behaviour in successive extensional and compressional events: a case study from the southwestern end of the Vallès-Penedès Fault (Catalan Coastal Ranges, NE Spain)

The structural position of the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous carbonates located in the central part of the Catalan Coastal Ranges corresponds to the southwestern end of the Vallès-Penedès Fault. This fault was reactivated at different times during successive extensional and compressional events and several generations of fractures and cementations were formed.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...