On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Inflation and output dynamics with firm-owned capital

We model firm-owned capital in a stochastic dynamic New-Keynesian generalequilibrium model à la Calvo. We find that this structure impliesequilibrium dynamics which are quantitatively di¤erent from the onesassociated with a benchmark case where households accumulate capital andrent it to firms. Our findings therefore stress the importance ofmodeling an investment decision at the firm level in addition to ameaningful price setting decision. Along the way we argue that the problemof modeling firm-owned capital with Calvo price-setting has not been solvedin a correct way in the previous literature.

Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allowsfor a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to setprices. The model nests the purely forward looking New KeynesianPhillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginalcosts as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theorysuggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costsare a significant and quantitatively important determinant ofinflation. Backward looking price setting, while statisticallysignificant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we concludethat the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good firstapproximation to the dynamics of inflation.

The variability of money velocity in a generalized cash-in-advance model

This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand wherethe velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant and equal to one as in cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). Despite its simplicity, in terms of paramaters to calibrate, the model performs surprisingly well. In particular, it approximates the variability of money velocity observed in the U.S. for the post-war period. The model is then used to analyze the welfare costs of inflation under uncertainty. This application calculates the errors derived from computing the costs of inflation with deterministic models. It turns out that the size of this difference is small, at least for the levels of uncertainty estimated for the U.S. economy.

Hypernormal densities

We propose a new family of density functions that possess both flexibilityand closed form expressions for moments and anti-derivatives, makingthem particularly appealing for applications. We illustrate its usefulnessby applying our new family to obtain density forecasts of U.S. inflation.Our methods generate forecasts that improve on standard methods based on AR-ARCH models relying on normal or Student's t-distributional assumptions.

Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development

This paper offers empirical evidence that a country's choice of exchange rate regime can have a signifficant impact on its medium-term rate of productivity growth. Moreover, the impact depends critically on the country's level of financial development, its degree of market regulation, and its distance from the global technology frontier. We illustrate how each of these channels may operate in a simple stylized growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. The empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

Which inflation to target? A small open economy with sticky wages indexed to past inflation

In a closed economy context there is common agreement on price inflation stabilization being one of the objects of monetary policy. Moving to an open economy context gives rise to the coexistence of two measures of inflation: domestic inflation (DI) and consumer price inflation (CPI). Which one of the two measures should be the target variable? This is the question addressed in this paper. In particular, I use a small open economy model to show that once sticky wages indexed to past CPI inflation are introduced, a complete inward looking monetary policy is no more optimal. I first, derive a loss function from a secondorder approximation of the utility function and then, I compute the fully optimalmonetary policy under commitment. Then, I use the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to compare the performance of different monetary policy rules. The main result is that once a positive degree of indexation is introduced in the model the rule performing better (among the Taylor type rules considered) is the one targeting wage inflation and CPI inflation. Moreover this rule delivers results very close to the one obtained under the fully optimal monetary policy with commitment.

Will EMU increase eurosclerosis?

In this paper we study the relationship between labor market institutions and monetary policy. We use a simple macroeconomic framework to show how optimal monetary policy rules depend on labor institutions (labor adjustment costs, and nominal and real wage rigitidy) and social preferences regarding inflation, employment, and real wages. We also calibrate our model tocompute how the change in social welfare brought about by giving up monetary policy as a result of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) depends on institutions and preferences. We then use the calibrated model to analyze how EMU affects the incentives for labor market reform, both for reformsthat increase the economy's adjustment potential and for those that affect the long-run unemployment rate.

Fsp27/CIDEC is a CREB target gene induced during early fasting in liver and regulated by FA oxidation rate

FSP27 (CIDEC in humans) is a protein associated with lipid droplets that downregulates the fatty acid oxidation (FAO) rate when it is overexpressed. However, little is known about its physiological role in liver. Here, we show that fasting regulates liver expression of Fsp27 in a time-dependent manner. Thus, during the initial stages of fasting a maximal induction of 800-fold was achieved, while during the later phase of fasting, Fsp27 expression decreased. The early response to fasting can be explained by a canonical PKA-CREB-CRTC2 signaling pathway since: i) CIDEC expression was induced by forskolin, ii) Fsp27 promoter activity was increased by CREB, and iii) Fsp27 expression was upregulated in the liver of Sirt1 knockout animals. Interestingly, pharmacological (etomoxir) or genetic (Hmgcs2 interference) inhibition of the FAO rate increases the in vivo expression of Fsp27 during fasting. Similarly, CIDEC expression was upregulated in HepG2 cells by either etomoxir or HMGCS2 interference. Our data indicate that there is a kinetic mechanism of auto-regulation between short- and long-term fasting, by which free fatty acids delivered to the liver during early fasting are accumulated/exported by FSP27/CIDEC, while over longer periods of fasting they are degraded in the mitochondria through the carnitine palmitoyl transferase (CPT) system.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

An eclectic third generation model of financial and exchange rate crises

[cat] En aquest treball es presenta un model eclèctic que sistematitza la dinàmica de les crisis que s’autoconfimen, usant els principals aspectes de les tres tipologies dels models de crisis canviàries de tercera generació, amb la finalitat de descriure els fets que precipiten la renúncia al manteniment d’una paritat fixada. Les contribucions més notables són les implicacions per a la política econòmica, així com la pèrdua del paper del tipus de canvi com instrument d’ajust macroeconòmic, quan els efectes de balanç són una possibilitat real.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.