Heterogeneity and event dependence in the analysis of sickness absence

Sickness absence (SA) is an important social, economic and public health issue. Identifying and understanding the determinants, whether biological, regulatory or, health services-related, of variability in SA duration is essential for better management of SA. The conditional frailty model (CFM) is useful when repeated SA events occur within the same individual, as it allows simultaneous analysis of event dependence and heterogeneity due to unknown, unmeasured, or unmeasurable factors. However, its use may encounter computational limitations when applied to very large data sets, as may frequently occur in the analysis of SA duration. To overcome the computational issue, we propose a Poisson-based conditional frailty model (CFPM) for repeated SA events that accounts for both event dependence and heterogeneity. To demonstrate the usefulness of the model proposed in the SA duration context, we used data from all non-work-related SA episodes that occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in 2007, initiated by either a diagnosis of neoplasm or mental and behavioral disorders. As expected, the CFPM results were very similar to those of the CFM for both diagnosis groups. The CPU time for the CFPM was substantially shorter than the CFM. The CFPM is an suitable alternative to the CFM in survival analysis with recurrent events,especially with large databases.

A subcritical instability of wave-driven alongshore currents

The development of shear instabilities of a wave-driven alongshore current is investigated. In particular, we use weakly nonlinear theory to investigate the possibility that such instabilities, which have been observed at various sites on the U.S. coast and in the laboratory, can grow in linearly stable flows as a subcritical bifurcation by resonant triad interaction, as first suggested by Shrira eta/. [1997]. We examine a realistic longshore current profile and include the effects of eddy viscosity and bottom friction. We show that according to the weakly nonlinear theory, resonance is possible and that these linearly stable flows may exhibit explosive instabilities. We show that this phenomenon may occur also when there is only approximate resonance, which is more likely in nature. Furthermore, the size of the perturbation that is required to trigger the instability is shown in some circumstances to be consistent with the size of naturally occurring perturbations. Finally, we consider the differences between the present case examined and the more idealized case of Shrira et a/. [ 1997]. It is shown that there is a possibility of coupling between triads, due to the richer modal structure in more realistic flows, which may act to stabilize the flow and act against the development of subcritical bifurcations. Extensive numerical tests are called for.

Maximum likelihood Linear Programming Data Fusion for Speaker Recognition

Biometric system performance can be improved by means of data fusion. Several kinds of information can be fused in order to obtain a more accurate classification (identification or verification) of an input sample. In this paper we present a method for computing the weights in a weighted sum fusion for score combinations, by means of a likelihood model. The maximum likelihood estimation is set as a linear programming problem. The scores are derived from a GMM classifier working on a different feature extractor. Our experimental results assesed the robustness of the system in front a changes on time (different sessions) and robustness in front a change of microphone. The improvements obtained were significantly better (error bars of two standard deviations) than a uniform weighted sum or a uniform weighted product or the best single classifier. The proposed method scales computationaly with the number of scores to be fussioned as the simplex method for linear programming.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Avalanche-like vortex penetration driven by pulsed microwave fields in an epitaxial LaSrCuO thin film

Different vortex penetration regimes have been registered in the output voltage signal of a magnetometer when single microwave pulses are applied to an epitaxial overdoped La2− x Sr x CuO4 thin film in a perpendicular dc magnetic field. The onset of a significant variation in the sample magnetization which exists below threshold values of temperature, dc magnetic field, and pulse duration is interpreted as an avalanche-type flux penetration. The microwave contribution to the background electric field suggests that the nucleation of this fast vortex motion is of electric origin, which also guarantees the occurrence of vortex instabilities under adiabatic conditions via the enhancement of the flux flow resistivity. Flux creep phenomena and heat transfer effects act as stabilizing factors against the microwave-pulse-induced fast flux diffusion.

Knowledge Licensing in a Model of R&D-driven Endogenous Growth

In this paper I present an endogenous growth model where the engine of growth is in-house R&D performed by high-tech firms. I model knowledge (patent) licensing among high-tech firms. I show that if there is knowledge licensing, high-tech firms innovate more and economic growth is higher than in cases when there are knowledge spillovers or there is no exchange of knowledge among high-tech firms. However, in case when there is knowledge licensing the number of high-tech firms is lower than in cases when there are knowledge spillovers or there is no exchange of knowledge.

Asymmetric stochastic switching driven by intrinsic molecular noise

Low-copy-number molecules are involved in many functions in cells. The intrinsic fluctuations of these numbers can enable stochastic switching between multiple steady states, inducing phenotypic variability. Herein we present a theoretical and computational study based on Master Equations and Fokker-Planck and Langevin descriptions of stochastic switching for a genetic circuit of autoactivation. We show that in this circuit the intrinsic fluctuations arising from low-copy numbers, which are inherently state-dependent, drive asymmetric switching. These theoretical results are consistent with experimental data that have been reported for the bistable system of the gallactose signaling network in yeast. Our study unravels that intrinsic fluctuations, while not required to describe bistability, are fundamental to understand stochastic switching and the dynamical relative stability of multiple states.

Knowledge Licensing in a Model of R&D-driven Endogenous Growth

In this paper I present an endogenous growth model where the engine of growth is in-house R&D performed by high-tech firms. I model knowledge (patent) licensing among high-tech firms. I show that if there is knowledge licensing, high-tech firms innovate more and economic growth is higher than in cases when there are knowledge spillovers or there is no exchange of knowledge among high-tech firms. However, in case when there is knowledge licensing the number of high-tech firms is lower than in cases when there are knowledge spillovers or there is no exchange of knowledge.

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Contracting with free software communities

Industry and large Agencies needs ¿agile¿ programming resources, to reinforce their own development staff and take advantage of innovative approaches produced by ¿fresh minds¿ all over the world. At the same time they may be reluctant to engage in classical software development call for tenders and contracts. Such contracts are often ¿trusted¿ by large ICT firms, which will deliver according to their own rigid frameworks (often based on alliances with proprietary software vendors), may propose comfortable quality assurances, but will cover their (real) risks and liability with high contingency costs and will charge for any change request in case the original specifications have not fixed all possible issues. Introducing FLOSS in business implies a new contracting philosophy, based on incentives rather than penalties and liability. Based on 2011 experience with a large Space Agency, Patrice-Emmanuel Schmitz pictures the needed legal instruments for a novel approach.

A programming environment having three levels of complexity for mobile robotics = Entorno de programación con tres niveles de complejidad para robótica móvil

This paper presents a programming environment for supporting learning in STEM, particularly mobile robotic learning. It was designed to maintain progressive learning for people with and without previous knowledge of programming and/or robotics. The environment was multi platform and built with open source tools. Perception, mobility, communication, navigation and collaborative behaviour functionalities can be programmed for different mobile robots. A learner is able to programme robots using different programming languages and editor interfaces: graphic programming interface (basic level), XML-based meta language (intermediate level) or ANSI C language (advanced level). The environment supports programme translation transparently into different languages for learners or explicitly on learners’ demand. Learners can access proposed challenges and learning interfaces by examples. The environment was designed to allow characteristics such as extensibility, adaptive interfaces, persistence and low software/hardware coupling. Functionality tests were performed to prove programming environment specifications. UV BOT mobile robots were used in these tests

"Patron-driven acquisitions": la biblioteca propone y el lector dispone

Reseña de: Esposito, Joseph J.; Walker, Kizer; Ehling, Terry. PDA and the university press. A report prepared for The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. [Baltimore, Md]: The Johns Hopkins University Press; [Ithaca, N.Y.]: Cornell University Library, Sept. 26th 2012. 65 p. Documento de trabajo disponible en línea en: . [Consulta: 10 de mayo de 2013].

Post-market environmental monitoring of Bt maize in Spain: Non-target effects of varieties derived from the event MON810 on predatory fauna

The Spanish Government has established post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) as mandatory for genetically modified (GM) crop varieties cultivated in Spain. In order to comply with this regulation, effects of Bt maize varieties derived from the event MON810 on the predatory fauna were monitored for two years in northeast and central Spain. The study was carried out with a randomized block design in maize fields of 3-4 ha on which the abundance of plant-dwelling predators and the activity-density of soil-dwelling predators in Bt vs. non-Bt near-isogenic varieties were compared. To this end, the plots were sampled by visual inspection of a certain number of plants and pitfall traps 6 or 7 times throughout two seasons. No significant differences in predator densities on plants were found between Bt and non-Bt varieties. In the pitfall traps, significant differences between the two types of maize were found only in Staphylinidae, in which trap catches in non-Bt maize were higher than in Bt maize in central Spain. Based on the statistical power of the assays, surrogate arthropods for PMEM purposes are proposed; Orius spp. and Araneae for visual sampling and Carabidae, Araneae, and Staphylinidae for pitfall trapping. The other predator groups recorded in the study, Nabis sp. and Coccinellidae in visual sampling and Dermaptera in pitfall trapping, gave very poor power results. To help to establish a standardized protocol for PMEM of genetically modified crops, the effect-detecting capacity with a power of 0.8 of each predator group is given.

Formalizing argumentative reasoning in a possibilistic logic programming setting with fuzzy unification

Possibilistic Defeasible Logic Programming (P-DeLP) is a logic programming language which combines features from argumentation theory and logic programming, incorporating the treatment of possibilistic uncertainty at the object-language level. In spite of its expressive power, an important limitation in P-DeLP is that imprecise, fuzzy information cannot be expressed in the object language. One interesting alternative for solving this limitation is the use of PGL+, a possibilistic logic over Gödel logic extended with fuzzy constants. Fuzzy constants in PGL+ allow expressing disjunctive information about the unknown value of a variable, in the sense of a magnitude, modelled as a (unary) predicate. The aim of this article is twofold: firstly, we formalize DePGL+, a possibilistic defeasible logic programming language that extends P-DeLP through the use of PGL+ in order to incorporate fuzzy constants and a fuzzy unification mechanism for them. Secondly, we propose a way to handle conflicting arguments in the context of the extended framework.