Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Neural networks complemented with genetic algorithms and fuzzy systems for predicting nitrogenous effluent variables in wastewater treatment plants

This work focuses on the prediction of the two main nitrogenous variables that describe the water quality at the effluent of a Wastewater Treatment Plant. We have developed two kind of Neural Networks architectures based on considering only one output or, in the other hand, the usual five effluent variables that define the water quality: suspended solids, biochemical organic matter, chemical organic matter, total nitrogen and total Kjedhal nitrogen. Two learning techniques based on a classical adaptative gradient and a Kalman filter have been implemented. In order to try to improve generalization and performance we have selected variables by means genetic algorithms and fuzzy systems. The training, testing and validation sets show that the final networks are able to learn enough well the simulated available data specially for the total nitrogen

Social factors related to the clinical severity of influenza cases in Spain during the A(H1N1)2009 virus pandemic

Background During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a change in the type of patients most often affected by influenza was observed. The objective of this study was to assess the role of individual and social determinants in hospitalizations due to influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods We studied hospitalized patients (cases) and outpatients (controls) with confirmed influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data. Variables that might be related to the hospitalization of influenza cases were compared by estimation of the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and the variables entered into binomial logistic regression models. Results Hospitalization due to pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections was associated with non-Caucasian ethnicity (OR: 2.18, 95% CI 1.17 − 4.08), overcrowding (OR: 2.84, 95% CI 1.20 − 6.72), comorbidity and the lack of previous preventive information (OR: 2.69, 95% CI: 1.50 − 4.83). Secondary or higher education was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization (OR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.36 − 0.87) Conclusions In addition to individual factors such as comorbidity, other factors such as educational level, ethnicity or overcrowding were associated with hospitalization due to A (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus infections.

Effects of nutrients and turbulence on the production of transparent exopolymer particles: a mesocosm study

The production of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) in response to several environmental variables was studied in 2 mesocosm experiments. The first (Expt 1) examined a gradient of 4 nutrient levels; the second (Expt 2) examined different conditions of silicate availability and zooplankton presence. Tanks were separated in 2 series, one subjected to turbulence and the other not influenced by turbulence. In tanks with nutrient addition, TEP were rapidly formed, with net apparent production rates closely linked to chl a growth rates, suggesting that phytoplankton cells were actively exuding TEP precursors. High nutrient availability increased the absolute concentration of TEP; however, the relative quantity of TEP produced was found to be lower, as TEP concentration per unit of phytoplankton biomass was inversely related to the initial nitrate dose. In Expt 1, an increase in TEP volume (3 to 48 µm equivalent spherical diameter) with nutrient dose was observed; in Expt 2, both silicate addition and turbulence enhanced TEP production and favored aggregation to larger TEP (>48 µm). The presence of zooplankton lowered TEP concentration and changed the size distribution of TEP, presumably by grazing on TEP or phytoplankton. For lower nutrient concentrations, the ratio of particulate organic carbon (POC) to particulate organic nitrogen (PON) followed the Redfield ratio. At higher nutrient conditions, when nutrients were exhausted during the post-bloom, a decoupling of carbon and nitrogen dynamics occurred and was correlated to TEP formation, with a large flow of carbon channeled toward the TEP pool in turbulent tanks. TEP accounted for an increase in POC concentration of 50% in high-nutrient and turbulent conditions. The study of TEP dynamics is crucial to understanding the biogeochemical response of the aquatic system to forcing variables such as nutrient availability and turbulence intensity.

Major variables influencing correct antibiotic prescription by primary care physicians in acute pharyngitis: a cross-sectional study

Objectives:To analyse which are the main variables that influence primary care professionals, in the prescription of antibiotics in patients with acute pharyngitis.To analyse which is the diagnosis pattern used by primary care professionals towards cutepharyngitis. To recognize the clinical and analytical criteria that primary care professionals use, to determine antibiotic treatment in acute pharyngitis.To identify the main clinical variables related with the prescription of antibiotics by primary care professionals, in acute pharyngitis treatment. Design: Cross-­‐sectional study Participants:165 primary care professionals from the Sanitary Region of Girona not attending paediatric patients and randomly selected from 29 ABS managed by two of the main health care providers: Insitut Català de la Salut (ICS) and Institut d’Assistència Sanitària (IAS) Main outcome measures: Each participant will fill out a questionnaire with personal and workplace questions, as well as about knowledge and attitude in front of the acute pharyngitis caused by group A streptococci. They will also answer 4 clinical questions about correct treatment and diagnosis of acute pharyngitis caused by group A streptococci

Análisis de la eficacia de los saques de esquina en la copa del mundo de fútbol 2010. Un intento de identificación de variables explicativas

In soccer, dead-ball moves are those in which the ball is returned to play from a stationary position following an interruption of play. The aim of this study was to analyse the effectiveness of one such dead-ball move, namely corner kicks, and to identify the key variables that determine the success of a shot or header following a corner, thereby enabling a model of successful corner kicks to be proposed. We recorded 554 corner kicks performed during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and carried out a univariate, bivariate and multivariate analysis of the data. The results indicated that corners were of limited effectiveness in terms of the success of subsequent shots or headers. The analysis also revealed a series of variables that were significantly related to one another, and this enabled us to propose an explanatory model. Although this model had limited explanatory power, it nonetheless helps to understand the execution of corner kicks in practical terms.

The effects of regional educational policies on school failure in Spain

This paper presents a regional analysis of the effects of educational policies implemented in Spain between 1992 and 2003, focusing specifically on school failure rates. We consider the impact of expenditure per pupil, class size, and pupil-teacher ratio on dropout rates at the end of compulsory education and on the proportion of early school-leavers in the 18-24 year age group. Our results indicate that higher levels of educational expenditure per pupil and lower class sizes and pupil-teacher ratios reduce rates of dropout and early school-leaving (although class-size is not always significant). However, the magnitude of the effects of these variables is small at the average level.

Safety of intramuscular influenza vaccine in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy: a single blinded multi-centre randomized controlled clinical trial

Influenza vaccines are recommended for administration by the intramuscular route. However, many physicians use the subcutaneous route for patients receiving an oral anticoagulant because this route is thought to induce fewer hemorrhagic side effects. Our aim is to assess the safety of intramuscular administration of influenza vaccine in patients on oral anticoagulation therapy. Methods: Design: Randomised, controlled, single blinded, multi-centre clinical trial. Setting: 4 primary care practices in Barcelona, Spain. Participants: 229 patients on oral anticoagulation therapy eligible for influenza vaccine during the 20032004 season. Interventions: intramuscular administration of influença vaccine in the experimental group (129 patients) compared to subcutaneous administration in the control group (100 patients). Primary outcome: change in the circumference of the arm at the site of injection at 24 hours. Secondary outcomes: appearance of local reactions and pain at 24 hours and at 10 days; change in INR (International Normalized Ratio) at 24 hours and at 10 days. Analysis was by intention to treat using the 95% confidence intervals of the proportions or mean differences. Results: Baseline variables in the two groups were similar. No major side effects or major haemorrhage during the follow-up period were reported. No significant differences were observed in the primary outcome between the two groups. The appearance of local adverse reactions was more frequent in the subcutaneous administration group (37,4% vs. 17,4%, 95% confidence interval of the difference 8,2% to 31,8%). Conclusion: This study shows that the intramuscular administration route of influenza vaccine in patients on anticoagulant therapy does not have more side effects than the subcutaneous administration route

Determinació de l’estat de seguretat alimentària de dues zones d’Etiòpia i de les variables socioeconòmiques que les afecten

L’objectiu d’aquest estudi ha sigut generar dades especifiques locals de dos zones agroecològiques diferents d’Etiòpia ( el woreda Wukro i el woreda Abaya), mesurar l’estat de seguretat alimentària de la seva població, i els determinants socioeconòmics que els afecten, així com identificar els principals problemes metodològics, interpretatius que afecten a aquestes mesures i, en conseqüència, les intervencions que se’n poden derivar.

Prevalencia de la infección tuberculosa y por el VIH en los usuarios de un programa de reducción de riesgos para usuarios de drogas por vía parenteral (UDVP)

FUNDAMENTO: Determinar la prevalencia de la infección tuberculosa y por el VIH, así como los factores asociados, en la población de usuarios del programa de reducción de riesgos de la ciudad de Lleida. MÉTODOS: La muestra la formaron los nuevos usuarios del programa en el período abril-junio de 1996, entre los los cuales se realizó un cuestionario para la recogida de datos de las variables: edad, sexo, resultado de la prueba de la tuberculina, vacunación BCG, conocimiento de la serología frente al VIH, ingreso en prisión y años de consumo de heroína. Se calculó la prevalencia de la infección tuberculosa y por el VIH, con el intervalo de confianza (IC) del 95%. La asociación de ambas variables con el resto de variables del estudio se determinó mediante la odds ratio (OR) y su IC del 95% . RESULTADOS: Acudieron 150 pacientes diferentes, de los cuales 45 eran nuevos usuarios. De ellos, el 80,0% eran varones, con una edad media de 31,1 años. La prevalencia de la coinfección fue del 8,9% (IC 95% 2,8-22,1). La prevalencia de la infección tuberculosa fue de 27,3% (IC 95% 12,4-43,0), siendo superior en los que tenían antecedentes de ingreso en prisión (OR=3,4; IC 95% 0,5-27,4). La prevalencia de la infección por el VIH fue del 36,1% (IC 95% 21,3-53,8), siendo superior en los que tenían una antigüedad, en el consumo de heroína, superior a los 11 años ( OR = 7,3; IC 95% 1,0-65,9). CONCLUSIONES: El antecedente de ingreso en prisión es el principal factor de riesgo de la infección tuberculosa. Los años de consumo se asocian con la infección por el VIH, especialmente a partir de los 11 años. Los programas de reducción de riesgos de nuestro país deberían realizar actividades de control de la infección tuberculosa y por VIH.

Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

Background: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69- 75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.

Relación entre variables de personalidad e interés por temas morbosos y sexuales en los mass media: réplica del estudio de Zuckerman y Litle en una muestra española

Este trabajo pretende replicar con muestras españolas un estudio americano diseñado para evaluar las relaciones entre el rasgo Búsquesa de Sensaciones, Extraversión, Neuroticismo y Psicoticismo, con el interés por la contemplación o lectura de sucesos violentos, morbosos y sexuales en los medios de comunicación (o reales). El estudio se realizó a partir de inventarios autoinformados de curiosidad morbosa, cuestionarios de personalidad y autopuntuaciones de asistencia a películas pornográficas y de terror. Los resultados obtenidos informan de una relación positiva entre las escalas de Búsqueda de Sensaciones (EBS) y las escalas de Curiosidad Morbosa (CTM-CTS). Ello sugiere como hipótesis que los altos buscadores de sensaciones podrían estar interesados en estímulos que aumentan la actividad del sistema central de catecolaminas. Para ello se parte de hallazgos experimentales previos que apuntan que películas morbosas de terror o sexuales aumentan los niveles de las catecolaminas periféricas.

Rendimiento matemático en contextos bilingües: análisis de la incidencia de algunas variables del contexto socio-educativo

El trabajo que se presenta en este artículo se sitúa en el contexto bilingüe de la provincia de Lleida en la que coexisten dos lenguas en contacto, el catalán y el castellano, si bien existe un predominio de uso familiar y escolar de la primera de ellas. En este contexto, nuestro estudio analiza cómo influyen en el rendimiento en matemáticas las variables del contexto educativo de condición lingüística familiar y situación socio-profesional de la familia, así como las variables individuales de conciente intelectual y autoconcepto matemático. Los resultados globales muestran, en primer lugar, la importancia del lenguaje como instrumento mediador de la enseñanza-aprendizaje de contenidos matemáticos, ya que el rendimiento de los alumnos en esta área curricular está en función del dominio y el uso de la lengua vehicular de la enseñanza —el catalán—. En segundo lugar, se constata una correlación significativa entre el rendimiento matemático y las variables individuales de cociente intelectual y el autoconcepto sobre el propio rendimiento matemático.