Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Performance Analysis of Two Quantum Reaction Dynamics Codes: Time-Dependent and Time-Independent Strategies

The computer simulation of reaction dynamics has nowadays reached a remarkable degree of accuracy. Triatomic elementary reactions are rigorously studied with great detail on a straightforward basis using a considerable variety of Quantum Dynamics computational tools available to the scientific community. In our contribution we compare the performance of two quantum scattering codes in the computation of reaction cross sections of a triatomic benchmark reaction such as the gas phase reaction Ne + H2+ %12. NeH++ H. The computational codes are selected as representative of time-dependent (Real Wave Packet [ ]) and time-independent (ABC [ ]) methodologies. The main conclusion to be drawn from our study is that both strategies are, to a great extent, not competing but rather complementary. While time-dependent calculations advantages with respect to the energy range that can be covered in a single simulation, time-independent approaches offer much more detailed information from each single energy calculation. Further details such as the calculation of reactivity at very low collision energies or the computational effort related to account for the Coriolis couplings are analyzed in this paper.

Persistent random walk model for transport trough thin slabs

We present a model for transport in multiply scattering media based on a three-dimensional generalization of the persistent random walk. The model assumes that photons move along directions that are parallel to the axes. Although this hypothesis is not realistic, it allows us to solve exactly the problem of multiple scattering propagation in a thin slab. Among other quantities, the transmission probability and the mean transmission time can be calculated exactly. Besides being completely solvable, the model could be used as a benchmark for approximation schemes to multiple light scattering.

Does Rigidity of Prices Hide Collusion?

Cartel detection is one of the most basic and most complicated tasks of competition authorities. In recent years, however, variance filters have provided a fairly simple tool for rejecting the existence of price-fixing, with the added advantage that the methodology requires only a low volume of data. In this paper we analyze two aspects of variance filters: 1- the relationship established between market structure and price rigidity, and 2- the use of different benchmarks for implementing the filters. This paper addresses these two issues by applying a variance filter to a gasoline retail market characterized by a set of unique features. Our results confirm the positive relationship between monopolies and price rigidity, and the variance filter's ability to detect non-competitive behavior when an appropriate benchmark is used. Our findings should serve to promote the implementation of this methodology among competition authorities, albeit in the awareness that a more exhaustive complementary analysis is required.

La cultura marittima nei progetti di rigenarazione urbana del porto vecchio, Barcellona

Port cities have represented one of the first forms of urbanization in which maritime culture has had an important role in the construction of the city. This culture has often been the foundation of an evolving tendency confronted with other lines of development, against which it has alternately integrated itself creatively, or has had to compete. The study of the multiplicity of these evolving processes, with their corresponding conflicts, can be useful to develop a critical vision of the grand transformations of industrial ports in urban areas and to initiate a critical reflection which would help to interpret current tendencies. The Barcelona case seems to be exemplary because the new projects for the transformation of the old port, focused on providing a service for luxury boats, have reopened a discussion on urban transformation works carried out in the past and have mostly revealed that the relationship between the port and the city is in constant evolution.For this reason there is a discussion about the extent to which large scale port transformations can have repercussions on maritime culture in a locality and what the role of maritime culture is with respect to fundamental economic strategies linked mostly to the construction of the post-Fordist city

Pots&Plants Aplicació de Realitat Augmentada

Joc de Realitat Augmentada on l’usuari haurà de complir petits reptes interactuant amb els elements virtuals de l’escena. Aquests elements es presentaran fent us de marcadors. El projecte és un joc on l’usuari ha de cuidar unes plantes. Per a poder fer aquesta feina el jugador realitzarà 3 tipus de reptes. Aquests reptes són petits jocs, és a dir, que hi ha tres tipus de “mini-jocs” dintre de la Aplicació. Degut a que cada jugador té preferències diferents, aquesta divisió́ de jocs permet accedir a un major nombre d’usuaris. Pel seu desenvolupament s'ha fet un recull d’informació i evolució històrica de la Realitat Augmentada. S'han agafant referents de jocs similars en el mercat: PC, Apps i videoconsoles com a base d’inspiració per a la creació de la historia del joc. I finalment una recollida de requeriments tècnics per al desenvolupament tecnològic a nivell de programació i disseny. Amb tota aquesta informació i tenint com a medis de desenvolupament Blender, Unity + Vuforia s'ha complert la implementació del joc.

Monte Carlo simulation of x-ray spectra generated by kilo-electron-volt electrons

We present a general algorithm for the simulation of x-ray spectra emitted from targets of arbitrary composition bombarded with kilovolt electron beams. Electron and photon transport is simulated by means of the general-purpose Monte Carlo code PENELOPE, using the standard, detailed simulation scheme. Bremsstrahlung emission is described by using a recently proposed algorithm, in which the energy of emitted photons is sampled from numerical cross-section tables, while the angular distribution of the photons is represented by an analytical expression with parameters determined by fitting benchmark shape functions obtained from partial-wave calculations. Ionization of K and L shells by electron impact is accounted for by means of ionization cross sections calculated from the distorted-wave Born approximation. The relaxation of the excited atoms following the ionization of an inner shell, which proceeds through emission of characteristic x rays and Auger electrons, is simulated until all vacancies have migrated to M and outer shells. For comparison, measurements of x-ray emission spectra generated by 20 keV electrons impinging normally on multiple bulk targets of pure elements, which span the periodic system, have been performed using an electron microprobe. Simulation results are shown to be in close agreement with these measurements.

Canalització de l'oferta i la demanda d'esdeveniments

Aquest projecte pretén mostrar l'estudi previ realitzat per crear una pàgina web dedicada a la canalització de l'oferta i la demanda d'esdeveniments.