Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

Towards smart user models in open environments

Our work is concerned with user modelling in open environments. Our proposal then is the line of contributions to the advances on user modelling in open environments thanks so the Agent Technology, in what has been called Smart User Model. Our research contains a holistic study of User Modelling in several research areas related to users. We have developed a conceptualization of User Modelling by means of examples from a broad range of research areas with the aim of improving our understanding of user modelling and its role in the next generation of open and distributed service environments. This report is organized as follow: In chapter 1 we introduce our motivation and objectives. Then in chapters 2, 3, 4 and 5 we provide the state-of-the-art on user modelling. In chapter 2, we give the main definitions of elements described in the report. In chapter 3, we present an historical perspective on user models. In chapter 4 we provide a review of user models from the perspective of different research areas, with special emphasis on the give-and-take relationship between Agent Technology and user modelling. In chapter 5, we describe the main challenges that, from our point of view, need to be tackled by researchers wanting to contribute to advances in user modelling. From the study of the state-of-the-art follows an exploratory work in chapter 6. We define a SUM and a methodology to deal with it. We also present some cases study in order to illustrate the methodology. Finally, we present the thesis proposal to continue the work, together with its corresponding work scheduling and temporalisation

Application of the european customer satisfaction index to postal services. Structural equation models versus partial least squars

Customer satisfaction and retention are key issues for organizations in today’s competitive market place. As such, much research and revenue has been invested in developing accurate ways of assessing consumer satisfaction at both the macro (national) and micro (organizational) level, facilitating comparisons in performance both within and between industries. Since the instigation of the national customer satisfaction indices (CSI), partial least squares (PLS) has been used to estimate the CSI models in preference to structural equation models (SEM) because they do not rely on strict assumptions about the data. However, this choice was based upon some misconceptions about the use of SEM’s and does not take into consideration more recent advances in SEM, including estimation methods that are robust to non-normality and missing data. In this paper, both SEM and PLS approaches were compared by evaluating perceptions of the Isle of Man Post Office Products and Customer service using a CSI format. The new robust SEM procedures were found to be advantageous over PLS. Product quality was found to be the only driver of customer satisfaction, while image and satisfaction were the only predictors of loyalty, thus arguing for the specificity of postal services

Bayesian nash equilibrium in ''linear'' cournot models with private information about costs

Calculating explicit closed form solutions of Cournot models where firms have private information about their costs is, in general, very cumbersome. Most authors consider therefore linear demands and constant marginal costs. However, within this framework, the nonnegativity constraint on prices (and quantities) has been ignored or not properly dealt with and the correct calculation of all Bayesian Nash equilibria is more complicated than expected. Moreover, multiple symmetric and interior Bayesianf equilibria may exist for an open set of parameters. The reason for this is that linear demand is not really linear, since there is a kink at zero price: the general ''linear'' inverse demand function is P (Q) = max{a - bQ, 0} rather than P (Q) = a - bQ.

Avalanche dynamics of fiber bundle models

We present a detailed analytical and numerical study of the avalanche distributions of the continuous damage fiber bundle model CDFBM . Linearly elastic fibers undergo a series of partial failure events which give rise to a gradual degradation of their stiffness. We show that the model reproduces a wide range of mechanical behaviors. We find that macroscopic hardening and plastic responses are characterized by avalanche distributions, which exhibit an algebraic decay with exponents between 5/2 and 2 different from those observed in mean-field fiber bundle models. We also derive analytically the phase diagram of a family of CDFBM which covers a large variety of potential avalanche size distributions. Our results provide a unified view of the statistics of breaking avalanches in fiber bundle models

Epidemic models with an infected-infectious period

The introduction of an infective-infectious period on the geographic spread of epidemics is considered in two different models. The classical evolution equations arising in the literature are generalized and the existence of epidemic wave fronts is revised. The asymptotic speed is obtained and improves previous results for the Black Death plague

PSyscal: disseny i implementació d'un sistema paral·lel per al calibratge automàtic de models P-Sistema

Es tracta d'un projecte que proposa una aplicació per al calibratge automàtic de models P-sistema. Per a fer-ho primer es farà un estudi sobre els models P-sistema i el procediment seguit pels investigadors per desenvolupar aquest tipus de models. Es desenvoluparà una primera solució sèrie per al problema, i s'analitzaran els seus punts febles. Seguidament es proposarà una versió paral·lela que millori significativament el temps d'execució, tot mantenint una alta eficiència i escalabilitat.

Disseny i implementació d'una API en Python per el processament de models de poblacions simulats mitjançant PlinguaCore

En aquest projecte, tractarem de crear una aplicació que ens permeti d'una forma ràpida i eficient, el processament dels resultats obtinguts per un eina de simulació d'ecosistemes naturals anomenada PlinguaCore .L'objectiu d'aquest tractament és doble. En primer lloc, dissenyar una API que ens permeti de forma eficient processar la gran quantitat de dades generades per simulador d'ecosistemes PlinguaCore. En segon lloc, fer que aquesta API es pugui integrar en altres aplicacions, tant de tractament de dades, com de cal·libració dels models.

Predictions from information-theoretical models of nonequilibrium radiation

The radiation distribution function used by Domínguez and Jou [Phys. Rev. E 51, 158 (1995)] has been recently modified by Domínguez-Cascante and Faraudo [Phys. Rev. E 54, 6933 (1996)]. However, in these studies neither distribution was written in terms of directly measurable quantities. Here a solution to this problem is presented, and we also propose an experiment that may make it possible to determine the distribution function of nonequilibrium radiation experimentally. The results derived do not depend on a specific distribution function for the matter content of the system

Hypoxia and vasculature in models of lung cancer: implications for targeted therapeutics

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada a la Stanford University School of Medicine. Division of Radiation Oncology, Estats Units, entre 2010 i 2012. Durant els dos anys de beca postdoctoral he estat treballant en dos projectes diferents. En primer lloc, i com a continuació d'estudis previs del grup, volíem estudiar la causa de les diferències en nivells d'hipòxia que havíem observat en models de càncer de pulmó. La nostra hipòtesi es basava en el fet que aquestes diferències es devien a la funcionalitat de la vasculatura. Vam utilitzar dos models preclínics: un en què els tumors es formaven espontàniament als pulmons i l'altre on nosaltres injectàvem les cèl•lules de manera subcutània. Vam utilitzar tècniques com la ressonància magnètica dinàmica amb agent de contrast (DCE-MRI) i l'assaig de perfusió amb el Hoeschst 33342 i ambdues van demostrar que la funcionalitat de la vasculatura dels tumors espontanis era molt més elevada comparada amb la dels tumors subcutanis. D'aquest estudi, en podem concloure que les diferències en els nivells d'hipòxia en els diferents models tumorals de càncer de pulmó podrien ser deguts a la variació en la formació i funcionalitat de la vasculatura. Per tant, la selecció de models preclínics és essencial, tant pels estudi d'hipòxia i angiogènesi, com per a teràpies adreçades a aquests fenòmens. L'altre projecte que he estat desenvolupant es basa en l'estudi de la radioteràpia i els seus possibles efectes a l’hora de potenciar l'autoregeneració del tumor a partir de les cèl•lules tumorals circulants (CTC). Aquest efecte s'ha descrit en alguns models tumorals preclínics. Per tal de dur a terme els nostres estudis, vam utilitzar una línia tumoral de càncer de mama de ratolí, marcada permanentment amb el gen de Photinus pyralis o sense marcar i vam fer estudis in vitro i in vivo. Ambdós estudis han demostrat que la radiació tumoral promou la invasió cel•lular i l'autoregeneració del tumor per CTC. Aquest descobriment s'ha de considerar dins d'un context de radioteràpia clínica per tal d'aconseguir el millor tractament en pacients amb nivells de CTC elevats.

Cannabinoid addiction: behavioral models and neural correlates

The use of cannabis sativa preparations as recreational drugs can be traced back to the earliest civilizations. However, animal models of cannabinoid addiction allowing the exploration of neural correlates of cannabinoid abuse have been developed only recently. We review these models and the role of the CB1 cannabinoid receptor, the main target of natural cannabinoids, and its interaction with opioid and dopamine transmission in reward circuits. Extensive reviews on the molecular basis of cannabinoid action are available elsewhere (Piomelli et al., 2000;Schlicker and Kathmann, 2001).

From SNPs to pathways: integration of functional effect of sequence variations on models of cell signalling pathways

Background: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are the most frequent type of sequence variation between individuals, and represent a promising tool for finding genetic determinants of complex diseases and understanding the differences in drug response. In this regard, it is of particular interest to study the effect of non-synonymous SNPs in the context of biological networks such as cell signalling pathways. UniProt provides curated information about the functional and phenotypic effects of sequence variation, including SNPs, as well as on mutations of protein sequences. However, no strategy has been developed to integrate this information with biological networks, with the ultimate goal of studying the impact of the functional effect of SNPs in the structure and dynamics of biological networks. Results: First, we identified the different challenges posed by the integration of the phenotypic effect of sequence variants and mutations with biological networks. Second, we developed a strategy for the combination of data extracted from public resources, such as UniProt, NCBI dbSNP, Reactome and BioModels. We generated attribute files containing phenotypic and genotypic annotations to the nodes of biological networks, which can be imported into network visualization tools such as Cytoscape. These resources allow the mapping and visualization of mutations and natural variations of human proteins and their phenotypic effect on biological networks (e.g. signalling pathways, protein-protein interaction networks, dynamic models). Finally, an example on the use of the sequence variation data in the dynamics of a network model is presented. Conclusion: In this paper we present a general strategy for the integration of pathway and sequence variation data for visualization, analysis and modelling purposes, including the study of the functional impact of protein sequence variations on the dynamics of signalling pathways. This is of particular interest when the SNP or mutation is known to be associated to disease. We expect that this approach will help in the study of the functional impact of disease-associated SNPs on the behaviour of cell signalling pathways, which ultimately will lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying complex diseases.

Bilinear models for spatio-temporal point distribution analysis: application to extrapolation of left ventricular, biventricular and whole heart cardiac dynamics

In this work we describe the usage of bilinear statistical models as a means of factoring the shape variability into two components attributed to inter-subject variation and to the intrinsic dynamics of the human heart. We show that it is feasible to reconstruct the shape of the heart at discrete points in the cardiac cycle. Provided we are given a small number of shape instances representing the same heart atdifferent points in the same cycle, we can use the bilinearmodel to establish this. Using a temporal and a spatial alignment step in the preprocessing of the shapes, around half of the reconstruction errors were on the order of the axial image resolution of 2 mm, and over 90% was within 3.5 mm. From this, weconclude that the dynamics were indeed separated from theinter-subject variability in our dataset.

Fading models and metrics for contemporary wireless systems

The purpose of this paper is to examine (1) some of the models commonly used to represent fading,and (2) the information-theoretic metrics most commonly used to evaluate performance over those models. We raise the question of whether these models and metrics remain adequate in light of the advances that wireless systems haveundergone over the last two decades. Weaknesses are pointedout, and ideas on possible fixes are put forth.

Political mobilisation and models of trade unionism : Southern Europe in comparative perspective

The relationship between union membership and political mobilization has been studied under many perspectives, but quantitative cross-national analyses have been hampered by the absence of international comparable survey data until the first round of the European Social Survey (ESS-2002) was made available. Using different national samples from this survey in four moments of time (2002, 2004 and 2006), our paper provides evidence of cross-country divergence in the empirical association between political mobilisation and trade union membership. Cross-national differences in union members’ political mobilization, we argue, can be explained by the existence of models of unionism that in turn differ with respect to two decisive factors: the institutionalisation of trade union activity and the opportunities left-wing parties have available for gaining access to executive power.