'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

The Unemployment Benefit System: a Redistributive or an Insurance Institution?

[eng] In this paper we analyze how the composition of labor taxation affects unemployment in a unionized economy with capital accumulation and an unemployment benefit system. We show that if the unemployment benefit system is gross Bismarckian then the unemployment rate is reduced if wage taxes are decreased (and thus payroll taxes are increased). However, if the unemployment benefit system is net Bismarckian then the unemployment rate does not depend on how the system is financed. Besides, in a Beveridgean system the labor tax composition does not affect the unemployment rate if and only if the unemployed do not pay taxes and the employed pay a constant marginal tax rate. We also analyze when an unemployment benefit budget-balanced rule makes the economy to have a hysteresis process.

An overlapping generations approach to price policies in privatehealthcare insurance. The Catalan case

We analyze premium policies and price dispersion among private healthcare insurance firms from an overlapping-generations model. The model shows that firms that apply equal premium to all policyholders and firms that set premiums according to the risk of insured can coexist in the short run, whereas coexistence is unlikely in the long run because it requires the coincidence of economic growth and interest rates. We find support for the model’s results in the Catalan health insurance industry. Keywords: Economic theory, price policies, health insurance, health economics, overlapping-generations. JEL Classifications: I11 / L11 / L23

Economic and legal analysis of mandatory non-recourse mortgages with applications to Spain

“The liquidity crisis of the Spanish banks is largely due to the lack of confidence of foreign investors and, therefore, the changes that occur in the legislation should not affect the credibility, stability, legal certainty, predictability that markets expect”.Sergio Nasarre (2011)In the current situation of economic crisis, many people have found they can no longer pay back the mortgage loans that were granted to them in order to purchase a dwelling. It is for this reason that, in light of the economic, political and social problems this poses, our paper studies the state of the Spanish real-estate system and of foreclosure, paying special attention to the solution that has been proposed recently as the best option for debtors that cannot make their mort-gage payments: non-recourse mortgaging. We analyze this proposal from legal and economic perspectives in order to fully understand the effects that this change could imply. At the same time, this paper will also examine several alternatives we believe would ameliorate the situation of mortgage-holders, among them legal reforms, mortgage insurance, and non-recourse mortgaging itself.

Reversible and high capacity data hiding in medical images

In this paper we introduce a highly efficient reversible data hiding system. It is based on dividing the image into tiles and shifting the histograms of each image tile between its minimum and maximum frequency. Data are then inserted at the pixel level with the largest frequency to maximize data hiding capacity. It exploits the special properties of medical images, where the histogram of their nonoverlapping image tiles mostly peak around some gray values and the rest of the spectrum is mainlyempty. The zeros (or minima) and peaks (maxima) of the histograms of the image tiles are then relocated to embed the data. The grey values of some pixels are therefore modified.High capacity, high fidelity, reversibility and multiple data insertions are the key requirements of data hiding in medical images. We show how histograms of image tiles of medical images can be exploited to achieve these requirements. Compared with data hiding method applied to the whole image, our scheme can result in 30%-200% capacity improvement and still with better image quality, depending on the medical image content. Additional advantages of the proposed method include hiding data in the regions of non-interest and better exploitation of spatial masking.

Some optimization and decision problems in proportional reinsurance

Reinsurance is one of the tools that an insurer can use to mitigate the underwriting risk and then to control its solvency. In this paper, we focus on the proportional reinsurance arrangements and we examine several optimization and decision problems of the insurer with respect to the reinsurance strategy. To this end, we use as decision tools not only the probability of ruin but also the random variable deficit at ruin if ruin occurs. The discounted penalty function (Gerber & Shiu, 1998) is employed to calculate as particular cases the probability of ruin and the moments and the distribution function of the deficit at ruin if ruin occurs.

Housing Wealth and Housing Decisions in Old Age: Sale and Reversion

Population ageing brings new challenges to long-term household economic decisions. In the event of old-age dependency, housing assets become a key self-insurance device. However, little empirical evidence has been reported regarding an individual"s expectations of having to use their housing wealth for such a purpose. This paper draws upon two complementary data sources to empirically examine: (1) the influence of housing assets on an individual"s willingness-to-sell (WTS) their dwelling for care purposes, and (2) the willingness to take out a reverse mortgage contract loan in the event of old-age dependency. The paper"s findings suggest that homeowners" WTS in old age is unaffected by their income or housing assets and is, rather, determined by socio-environmental housing characteristics and the individual"s health and personal needs. Conversely, the study finds that the uptake of home reversion loans is largely dependent on income or education, but not on a household"s housing assets.

The influence of decision-maker effort and case complexity on appealed rulings subject to multi-categorical selection

This study extends the standard econometric treatment of appellate court outcomes by 1) considering the role of decision-maker effort and case complexity, and 2) adopting a multi-categorical selection process of appealed cases. We find evidence of appellate courts being affected by both the effort made by first-stage decision makers and case complexity. This illustrates the value of widening the narrowly defined focus on heterogeneity in individual-specific preferences that characterises many applied studies on legal decision-making. Further, the majority of appealed cases represent non-random sub-samples and the multi-categorical selection process appears to offer advantages over the more commonly used dichotomous selection models.

Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain

Hospital expenses are a major cost driver of healthcare systems in Europe, with motor injuries being the leading mechanism of hospitalizations. This paper investigates the injury characteristics which explain the hospitalization of victims of traffic accidents that took place in Spain. Using a motor insurance database with 16.081 observations a generalized Tobit regression model is applied to analyse the factors that influence both the likelihood of being admitted to hospital after a motor collision and the length of hospital stay in the event of admission. The consistency of Tobit estimates relies on the normality of perturbation terms. Here a semi-parametric regression model was fitted to test the consistency of estimates, concluding that a normal distribution of errors cannot be rejected. Among other results, it was found that older men with fractures and injuries located in the head and lower torso are more likely to be hospitalized after the collision, and that they also have a longer expected length of hospital recovery stay.

Population structure in a highly pelagic seabird, the Cory's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea): an examination of genetics, morphology and ecology

Increasing evidence suggests oceanic traits may play a key role in the genetic structuring of marine organisms. Whereas genetic breaks in the open ocean are well known in fishes and marine invertebrates, the importance of marine habitat characteristics in seabirds remains less certain. We investigated the role of oceanic transitions versus population genetic processes in driving population differentiation in a highly vagile seabird, the Cory"s shearwater, combining molecular, morphological and ecological data from 27 breeding colonies distributed across the Mediterranean (Calonectris diomedea diomedea) and the Atlantic (C. d. borealis). Genetic and biometric analyses showed a clear differentiation between Atlantic and Mediterranean Cory"s shearwaters. Ringing-recovery data indicated high site fidelity of the species, but we found some cases of dispersal among neighbouring breeding sites (<300 km) and a few long distance movements (>1000 km) within and between each basin. In agreement with this, comparison of phenotypic and genetic data revealed both current and historical dispersal events. Within each region, we did not detect any genetic substructure among archipelagos in the Atlantic, but we found a slight genetic differentiation between western and eastern breeding colonies in the Mediterranean. Accordingly, gene flow estimates suggested substantial dispersal among colonies within basins. Overall, genetic structure of the Cory"s shearwater matches main oceanographic breaks (Almería-Oran Oceanic Front and Siculo-Tunisian Strait), but spatial analyses suggest that patterns of genetic differentiation are better explained by geographic rather than oceanographic distances. In line with previous studies, genetic, phenotypic and ecological evidence supported the separation of Atlantic and Mediterranean forms, suggesting the 2 taxa should be regarded as different species.