Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods includeKolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram?r-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification ofpredictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the testscan detect mis-specification in the predictive densities even if it appears only overa fraction of the sample, due to the presence of instabilities. Our results indicatethat our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification inpredictive densities, even when it is time-varying. An application to density forecastsof the Survey of Professional Forecasters demonstrates the usefulness of the proposedmethodologies.

Deposition and residues of azoxystrobin and imidacloprid on greenhouse lettuce with implications for human consumption

Lettuce greenhouse experiments were carried out from March to June 2011 in order to analyze how pesticides behave from the time of application until their intake via human consumption taking into account the primary distribution of pesticides, field dissipation, and post-harvest processing. In addition, experimental conditions were used to evaluate a new dynamic plant uptake model comparing its results with the experimentally derived residues. One application of imidacloprid and two of azoxystrobin were conducted. For evaluating primary pesticide distribution, two approaches based on leaf area index and vegetation cover were used and results were compared with those obtained from a tracer test. High influence of lettuce density, growth stage and type of sprayer was observed in primary distribution showing that low densities or early growth stages implied high losses of pesticides on soil. Washed and unwashed samples of lettuce were taken and analyzed from application to harvest to evaluate removal of pesticides by food processing. Results show that residues found on the Spanish preharvest interval days were in all cases below officially set maximum residue limits, although it was observed that time between application and harvest is as important for residues as application amounts. An overall reduction of 40–60% of pesticides residues was obtained from washing lettuce. Experimentally derived residues were compared with modeled residues and deviate from 1.2 to 1.4 for imidacloprid and azoxystrobin, respectively, presenting good model predictions. Resulting human intake fractions range from... for imidacloprid to ... for azoxystrobin.

Exemplar-based interpolation of sparsely sampled images

A nonlocal variational formulation for interpolating a sparsel sampled image is introduced in this paper. The proposed variational formulation, originally motivated by image inpainting problems, encouragesthe transfer of information between similar image patches, following the paradigm of exemplar-based methods. Contrary to the classical inpaintingproblem, no complete patches are available from the sparse imagesamples, and the patch similarity criterion has to be redefined as here proposed. Initial experimental results with the proposed framework, at very low sampling densities, are very encouraging. We also explore somedepartures from the variational setting, showing a remarkable ability to recover textures at low sampling densities.

Sequentially aerated membrane biofilm reactors for autotrophic nitrogen removal: microbial community composition and dynamics

Membrane-aerated biofilm reactors performing autotrophic nitrogen removal can be successfully applied to treat concentrated nitrogen streams. However, their process performance is seriously hampered by the growth of nitrite oxidizing bacteria (NOB). In this work we document how sequential aeration can bring the rapid and long-term suppression of NOB and the onset of the activity of anaerobic ammonium oxidizing bacteria (AnAOB). Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction analyses confirmed that such shift in performance was mirrored by a change in population densities, with a very drastic reduction of the NOB Nitrospira and Nitrobacter and a 10-fold increase in AnAOB numbers. The study of biofilm sections with relevant 16S rRNA fluorescent probes revealed strongly stratified biofilm structures fostering aerobic ammonium oxidizing bacteria (AOB) in biofilm areas close to the membrane surface (rich in oxygen) and AnAOB in regions neighbouring the liquid phase. Both communities were separated by a transition region potentially populated by denitrifying heterotrophic bacteria. AOB and AnAOB bacterial groups were more abundant and diverse than NOB, and dominated by the r-strategists Nitrosomonas europaea and Ca. Brocadia anammoxidans, respectively. Taken together, the present work presents tools to better engineer, monitor and control the microbial communities that support robust, sustainable and efficient nitrogen removal

Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs

We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management.

A performance lower bound for quadratic timing recovery accounting for the symbol transition density

The symbol transition density in a digitally modulated signal affects the performance of practical synchronization schemes designed for timing recovery. This paper focuses on the derivation of simple performance limits for the estimation of the time delay of a noisy linearly modulated signal in the presence of various degrees of symbol correlation produced by the varioustransition densities in the symbol streams. The paper develops high- and low-signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) approximations of the so-called (Gaussian) unconditional Cramér–Rao bound (UCRB),as well as general expressions that are applicable in all ranges of SNR. The derived bounds are valid only for the class of quadratic, non-data-aided (NDA) timing recovery schemes. To illustrate the validity of the derived bounds, they are compared with the actual performance achieved by some well-known quadratic NDA timing recovery schemes. The impact of the symbol transitiondensity on the classical threshold effect present in NDA timing recovery schemes is also analyzed. Previous work on performancebounds for timing recovery from various authors is generalized and unified in this contribution.

La Costa Brava ante los nuevos retos del turismo

The first section of this paper summarises the most relevant charateristics of the contemporary tourist model, also called postfordist or postmodernist. In the second part the traditional tourist model developed in the Costa Brava in the past decades, is reviewed. Emphasising the saturation of tourist facilities on the coast line, expansive urban growth, thanks to a tolerant administration, poor complementary supply and concentrated demand in few markets and the proximity of Barcelona conurbation, stressed by second homes. In the third section, some strategies developed in recent years to readapt the Costa Brava to the new tendencies in tourism, are presented. Incorporation of the inland to the tourist product, new planning policics, lessening urban densities and height, and a change in mind in favour of protected natural areas, diversification of demand with new markets, specially form Eastern Europe (although this might be considered as a continuation ofthe traditional tourist model) and the emergence of local strategies oriented towards the creation of new tourist products based upon natural and cultural resources

Short communication. Mutual pheromone antagonism in two sympatric corn borers, Sesamia nonagrioides and Ostrinia nubilalis, under field conditions

In previous studies, we demonstrated cross-antagonism in pheromone perception between pheromone componentsof the two corn (Zea mays L.) borers Sesamia nonagrioides Lefèbvre (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in the laboratory and in the field. The two pheromone components identified as responsible for this cross-antagonism were Z 11-16:Ald, a minor component of S. nonagrioides pheromone, and Z 11-14:Ac, the main component of the pheromone of the Z-strain of O. nubilalis, which inhibited the response of O. nubilalis and S. nonagrioides, respectively. Here, we study this antagonism phenomenon in the field by air permeation of maize plots with each of the two components separately and measurement of mating in caged couples of the two corn borers on treated and untreated plots during three years. A significant reduction in mating rates was observed on the permeated plots: 7% for S. nonagrioides and 12% for O. nubilalis. When dispenser charges (200 ng) were increased by 50% and 75% in the third year, no decrease in mating rates was recorded at either of the increased concentrations. On the other hand, the use of large cages resulted in an increase of 8% to 12% in the percentage of unmated females in each of the two corn borers suggesting that at more realistic field corn borer densities, 0,1 couples/plant instead of the 2 couples/plant used in this experiment, cross-antagonism in the two corn borers could be higher than that recorded in small cages.

Un nuevo problema en espacios verdes urbanos: el pulgón Myzocallis (Lineomyzocallis) walshii (Hemiptera: Aphididae) y el roble americano (Quercus rubra)

Myzocallis (Lineomyzocallis) walshii (Monell) es un pulgón nativo del este de Nor- teamérica que se detectó por primera vez en España en 1995 y cuyo principal huésped es el roble americano (Quercus rubra L.). Los robles americanos se emplean como árbol ornamental en ambientes urbanos en diversas ciudades españolas, donde las proliferaciones del pulgón generan gran cantidad de melaza provocando daños estéticos y de confort. Durante 2008 y 2009 se efectuó el seguimiento de la fenología y de la densidad de población de M. walshii y de otros pulgones en robles americanos plantados en alineación en la ciudad de Girona y se estimaron los daños producidos. Asimismo se valoró la relación entre la abundancia de pulgones y los daños ocasionados. Finalmente se identificaron los principales grupos de enemigos naturales, a la vez que se cuantificó su abundancia. M. walshii fue la única especie de pulgón que afectó a los robles americanos. Este pulgón pasa el invierno en forma de huevo, las primeras ninfas surgen a la salida de hojas y las distintas generaciones de individuos partenogenéticos se mantienen a niveles variables hasta mediados de otoño, cuando aparecen las formas sexuales. Existe una correlación positiva entre la abundancia del pulgón y los daños de confort, incluso cuando la densidad es baja. Parasitoides y coccinélidos fueron los enemigos naturales más frecuentemente registrados, aunque su abundancia fue relativamente escasa. Se discute el papel de las condiciones climáticas y de los enemigos naturales en la determinación de la abundancia de M. walshii.

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model

Background: The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings: We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.

Post-market environmental monitoring of Bt maize in Spain: Non-target effects of varieties derived from the event MON810 on predatory fauna

The Spanish Government has established post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) as mandatory for genetically modified (GM) crop varieties cultivated in Spain. In order to comply with this regulation, effects of Bt maize varieties derived from the event MON810 on the predatory fauna were monitored for two years in northeast and central Spain. The study was carried out with a randomized block design in maize fields of 3-4 ha on which the abundance of plant-dwelling predators and the activity-density of soil-dwelling predators in Bt vs. non-Bt near-isogenic varieties were compared. To this end, the plots were sampled by visual inspection of a certain number of plants and pitfall traps 6 or 7 times throughout two seasons. No significant differences in predator densities on plants were found between Bt and non-Bt varieties. In the pitfall traps, significant differences between the two types of maize were found only in Staphylinidae, in which trap catches in non-Bt maize were higher than in Bt maize in central Spain. Based on the statistical power of the assays, surrogate arthropods for PMEM purposes are proposed; Orius spp. and Araneae for visual sampling and Carabidae, Araneae, and Staphylinidae for pitfall trapping. The other predator groups recorded in the study, Nabis sp. and Coccinellidae in visual sampling and Dermaptera in pitfall trapping, gave very poor power results. To help to establish a standardized protocol for PMEM of genetically modified crops, the effect-detecting capacity with a power of 0.8 of each predator group is given.

Extreme-value distributions and renormalization group

In the classical theorems of extreme value theory the limits of suitably rescaled maxima of sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables are studied. The vast majority of the literature on the subject deals with affine normalization. We argue that more general normalizations are natural from a mathematical and physical point of view and work them out. The problem is approached using the language of renormalization-group transformations in the space of probability densities. The limit distributions are fixed points of the transformation and the study of its differential around them allows a local analysis of the domains of attraction and the computation of finite-size corrections.

Diet-related buccal dental microwear patterns in central african pygmy foragers and bantu-speaking farmer and pastoralist populations.

Pygmy hunter-gatherers from Central Africa have shared a network of socioeconomic interactions with non-Pygmy Bantu speakers since agropastoral lifestyle spread across sub-Saharan Africa. Ethnographic studies have reported that their diets differ in consumption of both animal proteins and starch grains. Hunted meat and gathered plant foods, especially underground storage organs (USOs), are dietary staples for pygmies. However, scarce information exists about forager-farmer interaction and the agricultural products used by pygmies. Since the effects of dietary preferences on teeth in modern and past pygmies remain unknown, we explored dietary history through quantitative analysis of buccal microwear on cheek teeth in well-documented Baka pygmies. We then determined if microwear patterns differ among other Pygmy groups (Aka, Mbuti, and Babongo) and between Bantu-speaking farmer and pastoralist populations from past centuries. The buccal dental microwear patterns of Pygmy hunter-gatherers and non-Pygmy Bantu pastoralists show lower scratch densities, indicative of diets more intensively based on nonabrasive foodstuffs, compared with Bantu farmers, who consume larger amounts of grit from stoneground foods. The Baka pygmies showed microwear patterns similar to those of ancient Aka and Mbuti, suggesting that the mechanical properties of their preferred diets have not significantly changed through time. In contrast, Babongo pygmies showed scratch densities and lengths similar to those of the farmers, consistent with sociocultural contacts and genetic factors. Our findings support that buccal microwear patterns predict dietary habits independent of ecological conditions and reflect the abrasive properties of preferred or fallback foods such as USOs, which may have contributed to the dietary specializations of ancient human populations.

Neutron skin thickness in the droplet model with surface width dependence: Indications of softness of the nuclear symmetry energy

We analyze the neutron skin thickness in finite nuclei with the droplet model and effective nuclear interactions. The ratio of the bulk symmetry energy J to the so-called surface stiffness coefficient Q has in the droplet model a prominent role in driving the size of neutron skins. We present a correlation between the density derivative of the nuclear symmetry energy at saturation and the J/Q ratio. We emphasize the role of the surface widths of the neutron and proton density profiles in the calculation of the neutron skin thickness when one uses realistic mean-field effective interactions. Next, taking as experimental baseline the neutron skin sizes measured in 26 antiprotonic atoms along the mass table, we explore constraints arising from neutron skins on the value of the J/Q ratio. The results favor a relatively soft symmetry energy at subsaturation densities. Our predictions are compared with the recent constraints derived from other experimental observables. Though the various extractions predict different ranges of values, one finds a narrow window L∼45-75 MeV for the coefficient L that characterizes the density derivative of the symmetry energy that is compatible with all the different empirical indications.

Effective Electrodiffusion equation for non uniform nanochannels

We derive a one dimensional formulation of the Planck-Nernst-Poisson equation to describe the dynamics of of a symmetric binary electrolyte in channels whose section is of nanometric section and varies along the axial direction. The approach is in the spirit of the Fick-Jacobs di fusion equation and leads to a system of coupled equations for the partial densities which depends on the charge sitting at the walls in a non trivial fashion. We consider two kinds of non uniformities, those due to the spatial variation of charge distribution and those due to the shape variation of the pore and report one and three-dimensional solutions of the electrokinetic equations.