Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Input diffusion and the evolution of production networks

What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted in the productionof new or improved goods? Why are some inputs much more prominent than others? We modelthe evolution of input linkages as a process where new producers first search for potentially usefulinputs and then decide which ones to adopt. A new product initially draws a set of 'essentialsuppliers'. The search stage is then confined to the network neighborhood of the latter, i.e., to theinputs used by the essential suppliers. The adoption decision is driven by a tradeoff between thebenefits accruing from input variety and the costs of input adoption. This has important implicationsfor the number of forward linkages that a product (input variety) develops over time. Inputdiffusion is fostered by network centrality ? an input that is initially represented in many networkneighborhoods is subsequently more likely to be adopted. This mechanism also delivers a powerlaw distribution of forward linkages. Our predictions continue to hold when varieties are aggregatedinto sectors. We can thus test them, using detailed sectoral US input-output tables. We showthat initial network proximity of a sector in 1967 significantly increases the likelihood of adoptionthroughout the subsequent four decades. The same is true for rapid productivity growth in aninput-producing sector. Our empirical results highlight two conditions for new products to becomecentral nodes: initial network proximity to prospective adopters, and technological progress thatreduces their relative price. Semiconductors met both conditions.

Electrochemical synthesis of mesoporous CoPt nanowires for methanol oxidation

A new electrochemical method to synthesize mesoporous nanowires of alloys has been developed. Electrochemical deposition in ionic liquid-in-water (IL/W) microemulsion has been successful to grow mesoporous CoPt nanowires in the interior of polycarbonate membranes. The viscosity of the medium was high, but it did not avoid the entrance of the microemulsion in the interior of the membrane"s channels. The structure of the IL/W microemulsions, with droplets of ionic liquid (4 nm average diameter) dispersed in CoPt aqueous solution, defined the structure of the nanowires, with pores of a few nanometers, because CoPt alloy deposited only from the aqueous component of the microemulsion. The electrodeposition in IL/W microemulsion allows obtaining mesoporous structures in which the small pores must correspond to the size of the droplets of the electrolytic aqueous component of the microemulsion. The IL main phase is like a template for the confined electrodeposition. The comparison of the electrocatalytic behaviours towards methanol oxidation of mesoporous and compact CoPt nanowires of the same composition, demonstrated the porosity of the material. For the same material mass, the CoPt mesoporous nanowires present a surface area 16 times greater than compact ones, and comparable to that observed for commercial carbon-supported platinum nanoparticles.

Morphological and functional variability in the root system of Quercus ilex L. subject to confinement: consequences for afforestation

We examined root morphological and functional differences caused by restrictions imposed to vertical growth in the root system of holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) seedlings to assess the consequences of using nursery containers in the development of a confined root system for this species. Thus, root morphological, topological and functional parameters, including hydraulic conductance per leaf unit surface area (K $_{\rm RL})$, were investigated in one-year seedlings cultivated in three PVC tubes differing in length (20, 60 and 100 cm). Longer tubes showed greater projected root area, root volume, total and fine root lengths, specific root length (SRL) and K$_{\rm RL}$ values than did shorter tubes. On the other hand, the length of coarse roots (diameter > 4.5 mm) and the average root diameter were greater in shorter tubes. The strong positive correlation found between K$_{\rm RL}$ and SRL (r=+0.69; P<0.001) indicated that root thickness was inversely related to water flow through the root system. We concluded that root systems developed in longer tubes are more efficient for plant water uptake and, therefore, changes in root pattern produced in standard forest containers (i.e. about 20 cm length) may in fact prevent a proper establishment of the holm oak in the field, particularly in xeric environments.

A New Mechanism of Quark Energy Loss

We show that a heavy quark moving sufficiently fast through a quark-gluon plasma may lose energy by Cherenkov-radiating mesons. We demonstrate that this takes place in all strongly coupled, large-Nc plasmas with a gravity dual. The energy loss is exactly calculable in these models despite being an O(1/Nc)-effect. We discuss phenomenological implications for heavy-ion collision experiments.

Clinical management and burden of bipolar disorder: a multinational longitudinal study (WAVE-bd Study)

BACKGROUND: Studies in bipolar disorder (BD) to date are limited in their ability to provide a whole-disease perspective--their scope has generally been confined to a single disease phase and/or a specific treatment. Moreover, most clinical trials have focused on the manic phase of disease, and not on depression, which is associated with the greatest disease burden. There are few longitudinal studies covering both types of patients with BD (I and II) and the whole course of the disease, regardless of patients' symptomatology. Therefore, the Wide AmbispectiVE study of the clinical management and burden of Bipolar Disorder (WAVE-bd) (NCT01062607) aims to provide reliable information on the management of patients with BD in daily clinical practice. It also seeks to determine factors influencing clinical outcomes and resource use in relation to the management of BD. METHODS: WAVE-bd is a multinational, multicentre, non-interventional, longitudinal study. Approximately 3000 patients diagnosed with BD type I or II with at least one mood event in the preceding 12 months were recruited at centres in Austria, Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, Portugal, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine and Venezuela. Site selection methodology aimed to provide a balanced cross-section of patients cared for by different types of providers of medical aid (e.g. academic hospitals, private practices) in each country. Target recruitment percentages were derived either from scientific publications or from expert panels in each participating country. The minimum follow-up period will be 12 months, with a maximum of 27 months, taking into account the retrospective and the prospective parts of the study. Data on demographics, diagnosis, medical history, clinical management, clinical and functional outcomes (CGI-BP and FAST scales), adherence to treatment (DAI-10 scale and Medication Possession Ratio), quality of life (EQ-5D scale), healthcare resources, and caregiver burden (BAS scale) will be collected. Descriptive analysis with common statistics will be performed. DISCUSSION: This study will provide detailed descriptions of the management of BD in different countries, particularly in terms of clinical outcomes and resources used. Thus, it should provide psychiatrists with reliable and up-to-date information about those factors associated with different management patterns of BD. TRIAL REGISTRATION NO: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01062607.

Measurement of a Structured Backflow in an Open Small Channel Induced by Surface-Tension Gradients

We present experiments in which the laterally confined flow of a surfactant film driven by controlled surface tension gradients causes the subtended liquid layer to self-organize into an inner upstream microduct surrounded by the downstream flow. The anomalous interfacial flow profiles and the concomitant backflow are a result of the feedback between two-dimensional and three-dimensional microfluidics realized during flow in open microchannels. Bulk and surface particle image velocimetry data combined with an interfacial hydrodynamics model explain the dependence of the observed phenomena on channel geometry.

Electrochemical synthesis of mesoporous CoPt nanowires for methanol oxidation

A new electrochemical method to synthesize mesoporous nanowires of alloys has been developed. Electrochemical deposition in ionic liquid-in-water (IL/W) microemulsion has been successful to grow mesoporous CoPt nanowires in the interior of polycarbonate membranes. The viscosity of the medium was high, but it did not avoid the entrance of the microemulsion in the interior of the membrane"s channels. The structure of the IL/W microemulsions, with droplets of ionic liquid (4 nm average diameter) dispersed in CoPt aqueous solution, defined the structure of the nanowires, with pores of a few nanometers, because CoPt alloy deposited only from the aqueous component of the microemulsion. The electrodeposition in IL/W microemulsion allows obtaining mesoporous structures in which the small pores must correspond to the size of the droplets of the electrolytic aqueous component of the microemulsion. The IL main phase is like a template for the confined electrodeposition. The comparison of the electrocatalytic behaviours towards methanol oxidation of mesoporous and compact CoPt nanowires of the same composition, demonstrated the porosity of the material. For the same material mass, the CoPt mesoporous nanowires present a surface area 16 times greater than compact ones, and comparable to that observed for commercial carbon-supported platinum nanoparticles.

Uncovering the functional constraints underlying the genomic organisation of the Odorant-Binding Protein genes

Animal olfactory systems have a critical role for the survival and reproduction of individuals. In insects, the odorant-binding proteins (OBPs) are encoded by a moderately sized gene family, and mediate the first steps of the olfactory processing. Most OBPs are organized in clusters of a few paralogs, which are conserved over time. Currently, the biological mechanism explaining the close physical proximity among OBPs is not yet established. Here, we conducted a comprehensive study aiming to gain insights into the mechanisms underlying the OBP genomic organization. We found that the OBP clusters are embedded within large conserved arrangements. These organizations also include other non-OBP genes, which often encode proteins integral to plasma membrane. Moreover, the conservation degree of such large clusters is related to the following: 1) the promoter architecture of the confined genes, 2) a characteristic transcriptional environment, and 3) the chromatin conformation of the chromosomal region. Our results suggest that chromatin domains may restrict the location of OBP genes to regions having the appropriate transcriptional environment, leading to the OBP cluster structure. However, the appropriate transcriptional environment for OBP and the other neighbor genes is not dominated by reduced levels of expression noise. Indeed, the stochastic fluctuations in the OBP transcript abundance may have a critical role in the combinatorial nature of the olfactory coding process.

Dual activation of pathways regulated by steroid receptors and peptide growth factors in primary prostate cancer revealed by Factor Analysis of microarray data

Background: We use an approach based on Factor Analysis to analyze datasets generated for transcriptional profiling. The method groups samples into biologically relevant categories, and enables the identification of genes and pathways most significantly associated to each phenotypic group, while allowing for the participation of a given gene in more than one cluster. Genes assigned to each cluster are used for the detection of pathways predominantly activated in that cluster by finding statistically significant associated GO terms. We tested the approach with a published dataset of microarray experiments in yeast. Upon validation with the yeast dataset, we applied the technique to a prostate cancer dataset. Results: Two major pathways are shown to be activated in organ-confined, non-metastatic prostate cancer: those regulated by the androgen receptor and by receptor tyrosine kinases. A number of gene markers (HER3, IQGAP2 and POR1) highlighted by the software and related to the later pathway have been validated experimentally a posteriori on independent samples. Conclusion: Using a new microarray analysis tool followed by a posteriori experimental validation of the results, we have confirmed several putative markers of malignancy associated with peptide growth factor signalling in prostate cancer and revealed others, most notably ERRB3 (HER3). Our study suggest that, in primary prostate cancer, HER3, together or not with HER4, rather than in receptor complexes involving HER2, could play an important role in the biology of these tumors. These results provide new evidence for the role of receptor tyrosine kinases in the establishment and progression of prostate cancer.