Wealth, financial intermediation and growth

This paper presents empirical support for the existence of wealth effects in the contribution of financial intermediation to economic growth, and offers a theoretical explanation for these effects. Using GMM dynamic panel data techniques applied to study the growth-promoting effects of financial intermediation, we show that the exogenous contribution of financial development on economic growth has different effects for different levels of income per capita. We find that this contribution is generally increasing with thelevel of income per capita of the economy, up to a relatively high level of income. This contribution is consistently lower for poor countries; and for some low levels of income per capita it can be negative. We provide a model to account for these wealth effects. The model is a overlapping generations growth model where financial intermediaries implement liquidity risk sharing among depositors. We show that at early stages of economic development, a bank can increase welfare of its depositors only at the cost of lowering investment and growth. However, once the economy has crossed certain wealth threshold, the liquidity role of banks becomes unambiguously growth enhancing. As wealth increases, banks offer improving liquidity insurance, and higher growth; however, for high levels of wealth, growth generated byfinancial intermediation declines as the economy attains the optimal level of consumption risk sharing.

The transmission of US shocks to Latin America

I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin American economies. Posterior estimates for individual and average effects are constructed. US monetary shocks produce significant fluctuations in Latin America, but real demand and supply shocks do not. Floaters and currency boarders display similar output but different inflation and interest rate responses. The financial channel plays a crucial role in the transmission. US disturbances explain important portions of the variability of LatinAmerican macrovariables, producing continental cyclical fluctuations and, in two episodes, destabilizing nominal exchange rate effects. Policy implications are discussed.

Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning can do better than a model of rational expectations, we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data through a switching regime process. We findthat the rational expectations model and the model of learning both offer very good explanations for the joint behavior of money and prices.

The dot-com bubble, the Bush deficits and the US current account

Over the past decade the US has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming US stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing US government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is thatstock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. We challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the dot-com bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the Bush deficits). The benevolent view holds that a change in investorsentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The cynical view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. We discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the US economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position.

Killing by lung cancer or by diabetes? The trade-off between smoking and obesity

As the prevalence of smoking has decreased to below 20%, health practitioners interest has shifted towards theprevalence of obesity, and reducing it is one of the major health challenges in decades to come. In this paper westudy the impact that the final product of the anti-smoking campaign, that is, smokers quitting the habit, had onaverage weight in the population. To these ends, we use data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System,a large series of independent representative cross-sectional surveys. We construct a synthetic panel that allows us tocontrol for unobserved heterogeneity and we exploit the exogenous changes in taxes and regulations to instrumentthe endogenous decision to give up the habit of smoking. Our estimates, are very close to estimates issued in the 90sby the US Department of Health, and indicate that a 10% decrease in the incidence of smoking leads to an averageweight increase of 2.2 to 3 pounds, depending on choice of specification. In addition, we find evidence that the effectovershoots in the short run, although a significant part remains even after two years. However, when we split thesample between men and women, we only find a significant effect for men. Finally, the implicit elasticity of quittingsmoking to the probability of becoming obese is calculated at 0.58. This implies that the net benefit from reducingthe incidence of smoking by 1% is positive even though the cost to society is $0.6 billions.

Wage inequality in a frictional labor market

Wage inequality in the United States has grown substantially in thepast two decades. Standard supply-demand analysis in the empiricsof inequality (e.g.Katz and Murphy (1992)) indicates that we mayattribute some of this trend to an outward shift in the demand forhigh skilled labor. In this paper we examine a simple static channelin which the wage premium for skill may grow -increased firm entry.We consider a model of wage dispersion where there are two types ofworkers and homogeneous firms must set wages and preferences forwhat type of worker they would like to hire. We find that both thewage differential and the demand for high skill workers can increasewith the proportion of high skill workers -these high skill workerstherefore 'create' their own demand without exogenous factors. Inaddition, within group wage inequality can increase in step with thebetween group wage inequality. Simulations of the model are providedin order to compare the findings with empirical results.

The risk of divorce and household saving behavior

We analyze the impact of an increase in the risk of divorce on the savingbehaviour of married couples. From a theoretical perspective, the expected sign of theeffect is ambiguous. We take advantage of the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996as an exogenous increase in the likelihood of marital dissolution. We analyze the savingbehaviour over time of couples who were married before the law was passed. We proposea difference-in-differences approach where we use as comparison groups either marriedcouples in other European countries (not affected by the law change), or Irish familieswho did not experience a significant increase in the expected risk of divorce (such as veryreligious families, or single individuals). Our results suggest that the increase in the riskof divorce brought about by the law was followed by an increase in the propensity to saveof married couples, consistent with a rise in precautionary savings interpretation. Anincrease in the risk of marital dissolution of about 40 percent led to a 7 to 13 percent risein the proportion of married couples reporting positive savings.

Externalities and interdependent growth: Theory and evidence

I formulate and estimate a model of externalities within countriesand technological interdependence across countries. I find that externalreturns to scale to physical capital within countries are 8 percent; thata 10 percent increase of total factor productivity of a country's neighborsraises its total factor productivity by 6 percent; and that a 2 percentannual growth rate of labor productivity can be explained as an endogenousresponse to an exogenous 0.2 percent annual growth rate of total factorproductivity in the steady--state.

Radial measures of public services deficit for regional allocation of public funds

The goal of this paper is to present an optimal resource allocation model for the regional allocation of public service inputs. Theproposed solution leads to maximise the relative public service availability in regions located below the best availability frontier, subject to exogenous budget restrictions and equality ofaccess for equal need criteria (equity-based notion of regional needs). The construction of non-parametric deficit indicators is proposed for public service availability by a novel application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models, whose results offer advantages for the evaluation and improvement of decentralised public resource allocation systems. The method introduced in this paper has relevance as a resource allocation guide for the majority of services centrally funded by the public sector in a given country, such as health care, basic and higher education, citizen safety, justice, transportation, environmental protection, leisure, culture, housing and city planning, etc.

Endogenous information structures

Many models in the economics literature deal with strategic situations withprivately informed agents. In those models the information structure isassumed to be exogenous and common knowledge. We consider whether suchmodels, and the results they produce, are robust with respect theendogenization of the information structure. The results depend on whetherinformation acquisition is secret or private, and on whether the strategicsituation involves simultaneous or sequential moves. In particular we findthat only when information is secretly acquired and moves are simultaneous,the results are fully robust. When information is acquired secretly butmoves are sequential additional equilibria may appear. Instead, privateinformation acquisition may make the equilibrium set smaller.

Intergenerational justice when future worlds are uncertain

Let there be a positive (exogenous) probability that, at each date, the human species will disappear.We postulate an Ethical Observer (EO) who maximizes intertemporal welfare under thisuncertainty, with expected-utility preferences. Various social welfare criteria entail alternativevon Neumann- Morgenstern utility functions for the EO: utilitarian, Rawlsian, and an extensionof the latter that corrects for the size of population. Our analysis covers, first, a cake-eating economy(without production), where the utilitarian and Rawlsian recommend the same allocation.Second, a productive economy with education and capital, where it turns out that the recommendationsof the two EOs are in general different. But when the utilitarian program diverges, thenwe prove it is optimal for the extended Rawlsian to ignore the uncertainty concerning the possibledisappearance of the human species in the future. We conclude by discussing the implicationsfor intergenerational welfare maximization in the presence of global warming.

Job search and asset accumulation under borrowing constraints

In this paper I show how borrowing constraints and job search interact.I fit a dynamic model to data from the National Longitudinal Survey(1979-cohort) and show that borrowing constraints are significant. Agentswith more initial assets and more access to credit attain higher wagesfor several periods after high school graduation. The unemployed maintaintheir consumption by running down their assets, while the employed saveto buffer against future unemployment spells. I also show that, unlikein models with exogenous income streams, unemployment transfers, byallowing agents to attain higher wages do not 'crowd out' but increasesaving.

Ultrastructural studies of oogenesis in Bolinus brandaris(Gastropoda: Muricidae).

Ultrastructural studies of oogenesis in Bolinus brandaris are described. Although the initial phase of oogenesis is common to most animal species, vitellogenesis can be considered a species-specific characteristic. In the vitellogenesis of B.brandaris, mitochondria and endoplasmic reticula play a relevant role in the formation of myelinised membranous systems. Nuclear envelope, Golgi body and the oocyte plasma membrane invaginations are three possible origins for annulate lamellae. The latter can be considered membranous reservoirs. There are two sources for the vitellum: exogenous (from follicular cells) and endogenous (from the endoplasmic reticulum of the same oocyte).

Cholesterol transport from late endosomes to the Golgi regulates t-SNARE trafficking, assembly, and function

Cholesterol regulates plasma membrane (PM) association and functioning of syntaxin-4 and soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive fusion protein 23 (SNAP23) in the secretory pathway. However, the molecular mechanism and cellular cholesterol pools that determine the localization and assembly of these target membrane SNAP receptors (t-SNAREs) are largely unknown. We recently demonstrated that high levels of annexin A6 (AnxA6) induce accumulation of cholesterol in late endosomes, thereby reducing cholesterol in the Golgi and PM. This leads to an impaired supply of cholesterol needed for cytosolic phospholipase A2 (cPLA2) to drive Golgi vesiculation and caveolin transport to the cell surface. Using AnxA6-overexpressing cells as a model for cellular cholesterol imbalance, we identify impaired cholesterol egress from late endosomes and diminution of Golgi cholesterol as correlating with the sequestration of SNAP23/syntaxin-4 in Golgi membranes. Pharmacological accumulation of late endosomal cholesterol and cPLA2 inhibition induces a similar phenotype in control cells with low AnxA6 levels. Ectopic expression of Niemann-Pick C1 (NPC1) or exogenous cholesterol restores the location of SNAP23 and syntaxin-4 within the PM. Importantly, AnxA6-mediated mislocalization of these t-SNAREs correlates with reduced secretion of cargo via the SNAP23/syntaxin-4¿dependent constitutive exocytic pathway. We thus conclude that inhibition of late endosomal export and Golgi cholesterol depletion modulate t-SNARE localization and functioning along the exocytic pathway.

PDMP blocks brefeldin a-induced retrograde membrane transport from Golgi to ER: evidence for involvement of calcium homeostasis and dissociation from sphingolipid metabolism

In this study, we show that an inhibitor of sphingolipid biosynthesis, d,l-threo-1-phenyl-2- decanoylamino-3-morpholino-1-propanol (PDMP), inhibits brefeldin A (BFA)-induced retrograde membrane transport from Golgi to endoplasmic reticulum (ER). If BFA treatment was combined with or preceded by PDMP administration to cells, disappearance of discrete Golgi structures did not occur. However, when BFA was allowed to exert its effect before PDMP addition, PDMP could not ¿rescue¿ the Golgi compartment. Evidence is presented showing that this action of PDMP is indirect, which means that the direct target is not sphingolipid metabolism at the Golgi apparatus. A fluorescent analogue of PDMP, 6-(N-[7-nitro-2,1,3-benzoxadiazol-4-yl]amino)hexanoyl-PDMP (C6-NBD-PDMP), did not localize in the Golgi apparatus. Moreover, the effect of PDMP on membrane flow did not correlate with impaired C6-NBD-sphingomyelin biosynthesis and was not mimicked by exogenous C6-ceramide addition or counteracted by exogenous C6-glucosylceramide addition. On the other hand, the PDMP effect was mimicked by the multidrug resistance protein inhibitor MK571. The effect of PDMP on membrane transport correlated with modulation of calcium homeostasis, which occurred in a similar concentration range. PDMP released calcium from at least two independent calcium stores and blocked calcium influx induced by either extracellular ATP or thapsigargin. Thus, the biological effects of PDMP revealed a relation between three important physiological processes of multidrug resistance, calcium homeostasis, and membrane flow in the ER/ Golgi system.