Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..

Una infraestructura de metadades bibliogràfiques pel segle XXI

Aquest article tracta l'actual infraestructura bibliogràfica de les biblioteques que va ser creada en els inicis dels ordinadors – abans de la Web, XML, i de la varietat d'altres avenços tecnològics que en l'actualitat ofereixen noves oportunitats. Per una banda, s'identifiquen els requisits generals d'una infraestructura de metadades moderna per a les biblioteques incloent qualitats com: versatilitat, extensibilitat, granularitat i accessibilitat. Per l'altra banda, es proposa un nou tipus d'infraestructura de metadades que mostra, com a mínim, alguna d'aquestes qualitats. S'han identificat alguns temes clau que caldrà superar per tal d'implementar un canvi d'aquesta magnitud.

Political alliances and organisational change in political parties: a framework for analysis

This article sets out a theoretical framework for the study of organisational change within political alliances. To achieve this objective it uses as a starting point a series of premises, the most notable of which include the definition of organisational change as a discrete, complex and focussed phenomenon of changes in power within the party. In accordance with these premises, it analyses the synthetic model of organisational change proposed by Panebianco (1988). After examining its limitations, a number of amendments are proposed to adapt it to the way political alliances operate. The above has resulted in the design of four new models. In order to test its validity and explanatory power in a preliminary manner, the second part looks at the organisational change of the UDC within the CiU alliance between 1978 and 2001. The discussion and conclusions reached demonstrate the problems of determinism of the Panebianco model and suggest, tentatively, the importance of the power balance within the alliance as a key factor.

Response of photosynthetic organisms to global change: an approach based on marker pigments

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Department of Freshwater Ecology, National Environmetal Research Institute, Denmark, from 2006 to 2008. The main objective of the project was to reconstruct photosynthetic organism community composition using pigmentbased methods and to study their response to natural (e.g. climate) or anthropogenic (e.g. eutrophication) perturbations that took place in the system over time. We performed a study in different locations and at different temporal scales. We analysed the pigment composition in a short sediment record (46 cm sediment depth) of a volcanic lake (Lake Furnas) in the Azores Archipelago (Portugal). The lake has been affected during the last century by successive fish introductions. The specific objective was to reconstruct the lake’s trophic state history and to assess the role of land-use, climate and fish introductions in structuring the lake community. Results obtained suggested that whereas trophic cascade and changes in nutrient concentrations have some clear effects on algal and microbial assemblages, interpreting the effects of changes in climate are not straightforward. This is probably related with the rather constant precipitation in the Azores Islands during the studied period. We also analysed the pigment composition in a long sediment record (1800 cm sediment depth) of Lake Aborre (Denmark) covering ca. 8kyr of lake history. The specific objective was to describe changes in lake primary production and lake trophic state over the Holocene and to determine the photosynthetic organisms involved. Results suggested that external forcing (i.e. land use changes) was responsible of erosion and nutrient run off to the lake that contributed to the reported changes in lake primary production along most of the Holocene.

Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Relationship between technological progress, capital elasticity and emissions of industrial pollutants for the production sectors in Catalonia

As is known, the Kyoto Protocol proposes to reinforce national policies for emission reduction and, furthermore, to cooperate with other contracting parties. In this context, it would be necessary to assess these emissions, both in general and specifically, by pollutants and/or among productive sectors. The object of this paper is precisely to estimate the polluting emissions of industrial origin in Catalonia in the year 2001, in a multivariate context which explicitly allows a distinction to be made between the polluter and/or the productive sector causing this emission. Six pollutants considered, four directly related to greenhouse effect. A multi-level model, with two levels, pollutants and productive sectors, was specified. Both technological progress and elasticity of capital were introduced as random effects. Hence, it has been permitted that these coefficients vary according to one or other level. The most important finding in this paper is that elasticity of capital has been estimated as very non-elastic, with a range which varies between 0.162 (the paper industry) and 0.556 (commerce). In fact, and generally speaking, the greater capital the sector has, the less elasticity of capital has been estimated. Key words: Kyoto protocol, multilevel model, technological progress

Technological adoption in health care

This paper addresses the impact of payment systems on the rate of technology adoption. We present a model where technological shift is driven by demand uncertainty, increased patients' benefit, financial variables, and the reimbursement system to providers. Two payment systems are studied: cost reimbursement and (two variants of) DRG. According to the system considered, adoption occurs either when patients' benefits are large enough or when the differential reimbursement across technologies offsets the cost of adoption. Cost reimbursement leads to higher adoption of the new technology if the rate of reimbursement is high relative to the margin of new vs. old technology reimbursement under DRG. Having larger patient benefits favors more adoption under the cost reimbursement payment system, provided that adoption occurs initially under both payment systems.

Technological innovation in creative clusters. The case of laser in conservation of artworks in Florence

The field of laser application to the restoration and cleaning of cultural assets is amongst the most thriving developments of recent times. Ablative laser technological systems are able to clean and protect inestimable works of art subject to atmospheric agents and degradation over time. This new technology, which has been developing for the last forty year, is now available to restorers and has received a significant success all over Europe. An important contribution in the process of laser innovation has been carried out in Florence by local actors belonging to a creative cluster. The objects of the analysis are the genesis of this innovation in this local Florentine context, and the relationships among the main actors who have contributed in it. The study investigates how culture can play a part in the generation of ideas and innovations, and which are the creative environments that can favour it. In this context, the issue of laser technologies for the restoration of cultural heritage has been analysed as a case study in the various paths taken by the Creative Capacity of the Culture (CCC).

The Evolution of the Climate Change Regime: Beyond a North-South Divide?

This research primarily analyses relevant climate bargaining dynamics that have been informed by a North-South impasse. This working paper argues that the first stage of negotiations for a climate convention indeed witnessed a North-South divide which became institutionalized in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, in subsequent negotiation rounds the key loci of bargaining struggles was centered between developed countries, in which relevant North-South cooperation dynamics were also present. Finally, this paper assesses the unfinished post-Kyoto bargaining process in which two trends are already being observed: both the emergence of a new geopolitics between the United States and major developing countries, and a fragmentation process within the South, in which the Copenhagen Accord itself has begun to institutionalize such fragmentation.

Las nuevas tecnologías en la circulación de los discursos literarios y artísticos

La acelerada invención de nuevos hardware y software van modificando, casi diariamente, la percepción del mundo, y, por lo tanto, la producción cultural, permeabilizando conceptos como arte-literatura, cuadro-libro, imagen-texto. Si bien estas parejas han sido siempre objeto del discurso teórico, la discusión asume hoy una urgencia creciente al momento que las nuevas tecnologías exponen lo que estaba refugiado en el reino de la teoría. La misma forma de comprender la realidad se ve afectada por la inmediatez de estos medios. La investigación analiza la obra de diferentes autores de los nuevos medios que trabajan en torno a la problemática de la representación de la memoria en esta perspectiva contemporánea. El trabajo de investigación desarrollado en la Tesis Doctoral se centra en la forma de representación de la memoria, así como esta planteada en la obra de Chris Marker. Interesan especialmente los últimos dispositivos creados por el autor en el marco de las llamadas nuevas tecnologías y los nuevos espacios de exposición de cine. El proyecto propone un análisis en torno a la memoria que dichos discursos sugieren a través de los temas que les son propios: archivo, identidades culturales, contribución del espectador, base de datos y tratamiento tecnológico de la información. Se ha seleccionado la obra de Chris Marker por las características de realización y de discurso que permiten una amplia discusión sobre las llamadas nuevas tecnologías y el mundo que éstas representan en el nuevo espacio híbrido construido entre las artes visuales, la literatura y la tecnología.

How does monetary policy change? evidence on inflation targeting countries

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) applying moment- based estimator at time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. Using this novel flexible framework, our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules change gradually pointing to the importance of applying time-varying estimation framework. Second, the interest rate smoothing parameter is much lower that what previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules typically report. External factors matter for all countries, albeit the importance of exchange rate diminishes after the adoption of inflation targeting. Third, the response of interest rates on inflation is particularly strong during the periods, when central bankers want to break the record of high inflation such as in the U.K. or in Australia at the beginning of 1980s. Contrary to common wisdom, the response becomes less aggressive after the adoption of inflation targeting suggesting the positive effect of this regime on anchoring inflation expectations. This result is supported by our finding that inflation persistence as well as policy neutral rate typically decreased after the adoption of inflation targeting.

Parents, television and cultural change

This paper develops a model of cultural transmission where television plays a central role for socialization. Parents split their free time between educating their children which is costly and watching TV which though entertaining might socialize the children to the wrong trait. The free to air television industry maximizes advertisement revenue. We show that TV watching is increasing in cultural coverage, cost of education, TV's entertainment value and decreasing in the perceived cultural distance between the two traits. A monopolistic television industry captures all TV watching by both groups if the perceived cultural distance between groups is small relative to the TV's entertainment value. Otherwise, more coverage will be given to the most profitable group where profitability increases in group size, advertisement sensitivity and perceived cultural distance. This leads to two possible steady states where one group is larger but both groups survive in the long run. Competition in the media industry might lead to cultural extinction but only if one group is very insensitive to advertisement and not radical enough not to watch TV. We briefly discuss the existing evidence for the empirical predictions of the model.

A parameter-free approach for solving combinatorial optimization problems through biased randomization of efficient heuristics

This paper discusses the use of probabilistic or randomized algorithms for solving combinatorial optimization problems. Our approach employs non-uniform probability distributions to add a biased random behavior to classical heuristics so a large set of alternative good solutions can be quickly obtained in a natural way and without complex conguration processes. This procedure is especially useful in problems where properties such as non-smoothness or non-convexity lead to a highly irregular solution space, for which the traditional optimization methods, both of exact and approximate nature, may fail to reach their full potential. The results obtained are promising enough to suggest that randomizing classical heuristics is a powerful method that can be successfully applied in a variety of cases.

Contact melting of a three-dimensional phase change material on a flat substrate

In this paper a model is developed to describe the three dimensional contact melting process of a cuboid on a heated surface. The mathematical description involves two heat equations (one in the solid and one in the melt), the Navier-Stokes equations for the flow in the melt, a Stefan condition at the phase change interface and a force balance between the weight of the solid and the countering pressure in the melt. In the solid an optimised heat balance integral method is used to approximate the temperature. In the liquid the small aspect ratio allows the Navier-Stokes and heat equations to be simplified considerably so that the liquid pressure may be determined using an igenfunction expansion and finally the problem is reduced to solving three first order ordinary differential equations. Results are presented showing the evolution of the melting process. Further reductions to the system are made to provide simple guidelines concerning the process. Comparison of the solutions with experimental data on the melting of n-octadecane shows excellent agreement.