Eliciting preferences for collectively financed health programmes : the "willingness to assign" approach

Improving public involvement in health system decision making stands as a primary goal in health systems reform. However, still limited evidence is found on how best to elicit preferences for health care programs. This paper examines a contingent choice technique to elicit preferences among health programs so called, willingness to assign (WTAS): Moreover, we elicited contingents rankings as well as the willingness to pay extra taxes for comparative purposes. We argue that WTAS reveals relative ( monetary-based) values of a set of competing public programmes under a hypothetical healthcare budget assessment. Experimental evidence is reported from a delibertive empirical study valuing ten health programmes in the context of the Catalan Health Services. Evidence from a our experimental study reveals that perferences are internally more consistent and slightly less affected by "preference reversals" as compared to values revealed from the willingness to pay (WTP) extra taxes approach. Consistent with prior studies, we find that the deliberative approach helped to avoid possible misunderstandings. Interestingly, although programmes promoting health received the higher relative valuation, those promoting other health benefits also ranked highly

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

El reemplazo por las migraciones: natalidad y fecundidad de los extranjeros en España

Resulta muy difícil estimar el aporte al crecimiento natural de las personas venidas de fueras y nuevos residentes, de acuerdo con la propuesta de Naciones Unidas. Históricamente, No ha habido acuerdo acerca de la fecundidad de los migrantes. Andorka consideró que la migración producía un efecto depresor en la fecundidad. Estudios sobre la fecundidad de los migrantes internos en la sociedad catalana han mostrado el contraste entre un creciente indicador sintético de fecundidad (ISF) y un efecto reducido en la fecundidad longitudinal. Un intento de explicación basado en el tiempo, nacimientos pospuestos y adaptación, se presenta. Se trata de una combinación de la propuesta de Andorka del efecto depresor de la fecundidad, con un segundo tiempo de recuperación en destino. Esta Hipótesis en dos Tiempos (H2T) tiene carácter tentativo. Considera sólo un efecto de calendario. Se utilizan datos oficiales de la Encuesta de Fecundidad de 1999, de un Censo anterior y de natalidad. La H2T se considera una explicación posible de las altas tasas de natalidad de Europa y América.Estimaciones sobre la evolución de los nacimientos futuros de mujeres extranjeras, en al menos dos escenarios, son contemplados al final del artículo.

The Upper Oligocene of Montgat (Catalan Coastal Ranges, Spain): new age constraints to the western Mediterranean Basin opening

The Oligocene deposits of Montgat are integrated in a small outcrop made up of Cenozoic and Mesozoic rocks located in the Garraf-Montnegre horst, close to the major Barcelona fault. The Oligocene of Montgat consists of detrital sediments of continental origin mainly deposited in alluvial fan environments; these deposits are folded and affected by thrusts and strike-slip faults. They can be divided in two lithostratigraphic units separated by a minor southwest-directed thrust: (i) the Turó de Montgat Unit composed of litharenites and lithorudites with high contents of quartz, feldspar, plutonic and limestone rock fragments; and (ii) the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit composed of calcilitharenites and calcilithorudites with high contents of dolosparite and dolomicrite rock fragments. The petrological composition of both units indicates that sediments were derived from the erosion of Triassic (Buntsandstein, Muschelkalk and Keuper facies), Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous rocks (Barremian to Aptian in age). Stratigraphic and petrological data suggest that these units correspond to two coalescent alluvial fans with a source area located northwestwards in the adjoining Collserola and Montnegre inner areas. Micromammal fossils (Archaeomys sp.) found in a mudstone layer of the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit assign a Chattian age (Late Oligocene) to the studied materials. Thus, the Montgat deposits are the youngest dated deposits affected by the contractional deformation that led to the development of the Catalan Intraplate Chain. Taking into account that the oldest syn-rift deposits in the Catalan Coastal Ranges are Aquitanian in age, this allows to precise that the change from a compressive to an extensional regime in this area took place during latest Oligocene-earliest Aquitanian times. This age indicates that the onset of crustal extension related to the opening of the western Mediterranean Basin started in southern France during latest Eocene-early Oligocene and propagated southwestward, affecting the Catalan Coastal Ranges and the northeastern part of the Valencia trough during the latest Chattian-earliest Aquitanian times.

SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC: A new approach to mathematical 3D forward simulation modelling for terrigenous and carbonate marine sedimentation

Most sedimentary modelling programs developed in recent years focus on either terrigenous or carbonate marine sedimentation. Nevertheless, only a few programs have attempted to consider mixed terrigenous-carbonate sedimentation, and most of these are two-dimensional, which is a major restriction since geological processes take place in 3D. This paper presents the basic concepts of a new 3D mathematical forward simulation model for clastic sediments, which was developed from SIMSAFADIM, a previous 3D carbonate sedimentation model. The new extended model, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, simulates processes of autochthonous marine carbonate production and accumulation, together with clastic transport and sedimentation in three dimensions of both carbonate and terrigenous sediments. Other models and modelling strategies may also provide realistic and efficient tools for prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution of sedimentary deposits. However, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC becomes an innovative model that attempts to simulate different sediment types using a process-based approach, therefore being a useful tool for 3D prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution in sedimentary basins. This model is applied to the neogene Vallès-Penedès half-graben (western Mediterranean, NE Spain) to show the capacity of the program when applied to a realistic geologic situation involving interactions between terrigenous clastics and carbonate sediments.

On the origin of the North Pacific arcs

We present a new hypothesis that relates global plate tectonics to the formation of marginal basins, island arcs, spreading ridges and arc-shaped mountain belts around the North Pacific Ocean. According to our model, the ellipsoidal-shaped Paleogene basins of the South China Sea, Parece-Vela Basin, Shikoku Basin, Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk in addition to those of the North American Cordillera can be attributed to the change in plate convergence direction at 42 Ma between the Indoaustralian and Eurasian plates. The new direction of convergence was parallel to the eastern continental margin of Asia and resulted in widespread extension perpendicular to this margin and to the western margin of North America. Both margins form part of a circle parallel to the Indoaustralian-Eurasian direction of convergence.

New magnetotelluric data trough the boundary between the Ossa Morena and Centroiberian Zones

The south-western part of the Iberian Peninsula, including the southern branch of the Iberian Massif, has recently been the subject of several magnetotelluric (MT) studies. This area is made up of three different tectonic terranes: the South Portuguese Zone (SPZ), the Ossa Morena Zone (OMZ) and the Central Iberian Zone (CIZ). The boundaries between these zones are considered to be sutures, which appear as high electrical conductivity anomalies in the MT surveys. The OMZ is characterised by a conductive layer at middle-lower crustal levels. To investigate the continuity of this conductive layer into the CIZ, a new MT profile was carried out. This 75-km long ENE profile goes through the boundary between the OMZ and the CIZ. The results of a two-dimensional magnetotelluric inversion revealed a high-conductivity anomaly in the transition OMZ/CIZ (the so-called Central Unit), which is interpreted as due to interconnected graphite along shear planes. High-conductivity anomalies appeared in the middle crust of the CIZ, whose geometry and location are consistent with the conductive layer previously found in the OMZ, thus confirming the prolongation of the conductive layer into the CIZ. The top of this layer correlated spatially with a broad reflector detected by a seismic profile previously acquired in the same area. This, together with other geological and petrological evidence, points to a common origin for both features.

Deep crustal electromagnetic structure of Bhuj earthquake region (India) and its implications

The existence of fluids and partial melt in the lower crust of the seismically active Kutch rift basin (on the western continental margin of India) owing to underplating has been proposed in previous geological and geophysical studies. This hypothesis is examined using magnetotelluric (MT) data acquired at 23 stations along two profiles across Kutch Mainland Uplift and Wagad Uplift. A detailed upper crustal structure is also presented using twodimensional inversion of MT data in the Bhuj earthquake (2001) area. The prominent boundaries of reflection in the upper crust at 5, 10 and 20 km obtained in previous seismic reflection profiles correlate with conductive structures in our models. The MT study reveals 1-2 km thick Mesozoic sediments under the Deccan trap cover. The Deccan trap thickness in this region varies from a few meters to 1.5 km. The basement is shallow on the northern side compared to the south and is in good agreement with geological models as well as drilling information. The models for these profiles indicate that the thickness of sediments would further increase southwards into the Gulf of Kutch. Significant findings of the present study indicate 1) the hypocentre region of the earthquake is devoid of fluids, 2) absence of melt (that is emplaced during rifting as suggested from the passive seismological studies) in the lower crust and 3) a low resistive zone in the depth range of 5-20 km. The present MT study rules out fluidsand melt (magma) as the causative factors that triggered the Bhuj earthquake. The estimated porosity value of 0.02% will explain 100-500 ohm·m resistivity values observed in the lower crust. Based on the seismic velocities and geochemical studies, presence of garnet is inferred. The lower crust consists of basalts - probably generated by partial melting of metasomatised garnet peridotite at deeper depths in the lithosphere - and their composition might be modified by reaction with the spinel peridotites.

Combined use of the GGSFT data base and on Board Marine Collected Data to Model the Moho Beneath the Powell Basin, Antarctica

The Powell Basin is a small oceanic basin located at the NE end of the Antarctic Peninsula developed during the Early Miocene and mostly surrounded by the continental crusts of the South Orkney Microcontinent, South Scotia Ridge and Antarctic Peninsula margins. Gravity data from the SCAN 97 cruise obtained with the R/V Hespérides and data from the Global Gravity Grid and Sea Floor Topography (GGSFT) database (Sandwell and Smith, 1997) are used to determine the 3D geometry of the crustal-mantle interface (CMI) by numerical inversion methods. Water layer contribution and sedimentary effects were eliminated from the Free Air anomaly to obtain the total anomaly. Sedimentary effects were obtained from the analysis of existing and new SCAN 97 multichannel seismic profiles (MCS). The regional anomaly was obtained after spectral and filtering processes. The smooth 3D geometry of the crustal mantle interface obtained after inversion of the regional anomaly shows an increase in the thickness of the crust towards the continental margins and a NW-SE oriented axis of symmetry coinciding with the position of an older oceanic spreading axis. This interface shows a moderate uplift towards the western part and depicts two main uplifts to the northern and eastern sectors.

Origin of a restraining bend in an evolving strike-slip system: The Cenozoic As Pontes basin (NW Spain)

The As Pontes basin (12 km2), NW Iberian Peninsula, is bounded by a double restraining bend of a dextral strike-slip fault, which is related to the western onshore end of the Pyrenean belt. Surface and subsurface data obtained from intensive coal exploration and mining in the basin since the 1960s together with additional structural and stratigraphic sequence analysis allowed us to determine the geometric relationships between tectonic structures and stratigraphic markers. The small size of the basin and the large amount of quality data make the As Pontes basin a unique natural laboratory for improving our understanding of the origin and evolution of restraining bends. The double restraining bend is the end stage of the structural evolution of a compressive underlapping stepover, where the basin was formed. During the first stage (stepover stage), which began ca. 30 Ma ago (latest Rupelian) and lasted 3.4 My, two small isolated basins bounded by thrusts and normal faults were formed. For 1.3 My, the strike-slip faults, which defined the stepover, grew towards each other until joining and forming the double restraining bend, which bounds one large As Pontes basin (transition stage). The history of the basin was controlled by the activity of the double restraining bend for a further 3.4 My (restraining bend stage) and ended in mid-Aquitanian times (ca. 22 Ma).

Non-conventional water resources in coastal areas: a review of the use of reclaimed water

In an era of increasing concern for limited water resources a wise joint management of conventional and nonconventional water resources must be considered. Water scarcity aggravates in coastal zones which are often characterised by high population density, intense economic activity and tourism; meaning heavy seasonal water demands. The relationships between sea and land-water can also compromise the quality of available freshwater. In this context, the use of non-conventional water increases the availability of water supplies. Non-conventional water resources of low quality could be directed to meet several needs (like watering lawns, washing cars, flushing toilets and cooling systems, among others). Therefore, significantly more potable water would be available to meet human demand for safe water.

Marine and transitional Middle/Upper Eocenen units of the Southeastern Pyrenean Foreland Basin (NE Spain)

The stratigraphic basis of this work has allowed the use of larger foraminifers in the biostratigraphic characterisation of the new Shallow Benthic Zones (SBZ). This part of the volume presents a description of the sedimentary cycles formed by the transgressive-regressive systems of the Lutetian and Bartonian in the southeastern sector of the Ebro Foreland Basin. Concerning the Lutetian deposits studied in the Amer-Vic and Empordà areas, four sedimentary cycles have been characterised. The first and second are found within the Tavertet/Girona Limestone Formation (Reguant, 1967; Pallí, 1972), while the third and fourth cycles cover the Coll de Malla Marl Formation (Clavell et al., 1970), the Bracons Formation (Gich, 1969, 1972), the Banyoles Marl Formation (Almela and Ríos, 1943), and the Bellmunt Formation (Gich, 1969, 1972). In the Bartonian deposits studied in the Igualada area, two transgressive-regressive sedimentary cycles have been characterised in the Collbàs Formation (Ferrer, 1971), the Igualada Formation (Ferrer, 1971), and the Tossa Formation (Ferrer, 1971). The Shallow Benthic Zones (SBZs) recognised within the Lutetian are the following: SBZ 13, from the Early Lutetian, in the transgressive system of the first cycle; SBZ 14, from the Middle Lutetian, in the second cycle and the lower part of the transgressive system of the third cycle; SBZ 15, from the Middle Lutetian, in the remaining parts of the third system; SBZ 16, from the Late Lutetian, throughout the fourth cycle. The association of larger foraminifers in the first and second cycles of the Bartonian in the Igualada area has been used as the basis for the definition of SBZs 17 and 18 recognised in the Bartonian of the western Tethys.

An inventory of the marine and transitional Middle/Upper Eocene deposits of the Southeastern Pyrenean Foreland Basin (NE Spain)

In the southeastern Ebro Foreland Basin, the marine deposits of Lutetian and Bartonian age show excellent outcrop conditions, with a great lateral and horizontal continuity of lithostratigraphic units. In addition, the rich fossil record -mainly larger foraminifers-, provides biostratigraphic data of regional relevance for the whole Paleogene Pyrenean Basin, that can be used for the Middle Eocene biocorrelation of the western Tethys. This contribution is a sedimentary and biostratigraphic synthesis of the basic outcrops and sections of the Lutetian andBartonian marine and transitional deposits in the southeastern sector of the Ebro Foreland Basin.