Intergenerational justice when future worlds are uncertain

Let there be a positive (exogenous) probability that, at each date, the human species will disappear.We postulate an Ethical Observer (EO) who maximizes intertemporal welfare under thisuncertainty, with expected-utility preferences. Various social welfare criteria entail alternativevon Neumann- Morgenstern utility functions for the EO: utilitarian, Rawlsian, and an extensionof the latter that corrects for the size of population. Our analysis covers, first, a cake-eating economy(without production), where the utilitarian and Rawlsian recommend the same allocation.Second, a productive economy with education and capital, where it turns out that the recommendationsof the two EOs are in general different. But when the utilitarian program diverges, thenwe prove it is optimal for the extended Rawlsian to ignore the uncertainty concerning the possibledisappearance of the human species in the future. We conclude by discussing the implicationsfor intergenerational welfare maximization in the presence of global warming.

When "hope springs eternal": The role of chance in risk taking

In most naturally occurring situations, success depends on both skill and chance. We contrastexperimental market entry decisions where payoffs depend on skill as opposed tocombinations of skill and chance. Our data show differential attitudes toward chance by thosewhose self-assessed skills are low and high. Making chance more important induces greateroptimism for the former who start taking more risk, while the latter maintain a belief that highlevels of skill are sufficient to overcome the vagaries of chance. Finally, although weobserved excess entry (i.e., too many participants entered markets), this could not beattributed to overconfidence.

Non-stationary job search when jobs are not forever: A structural estimation

This paper considers a job search model where the environment is notstationary along the unemployment spell and where jobs do not lastforever. Under this circumstance, reservation wages can be lower thanwithout separations, as in a stationary environment, but they can alsobe initially higher because of the non-stationarity of the model. Moreover,the time-dependence of reservation wages is stronger than with noseparations. The model is estimated structurally using Spanish data forthe period 1985-1996. The main finding is that, although the decrease inreservation wages is the main determinant of the change in the exit ratefrom unemployment for the first four months, later on the only effect comesfrom the job offer arrival rate, given that acceptance probabilities areroughly equal to one.

When are layoffs acceptable? Evidence from a quasi-experiment

Many authors have discussed a decline in internal labor markets and an apparent shift to a new employment contract, characterized by less commitment between employer and employee and more portable skills. These discussions occur without much evidence on what employment contract employees currently feel is fair. We perfomed quasi-experimental surveys to study when employees in the U.S. andCanada feel that layoffs are fair.Layoffs were perceived as more fair if they were due to lower product demand than if the result of employee suggestions. This result appears to be solely due to norms of reciprocity (companiesshould not punish employees for their efforts), rather than norms of sharing rents, as new technology was also considered a justification for layoffs.Consistent with theories of distributive and procedural equity, layoffs were perceived as more fair if the CEO voluntarily shared the pain. CEO bonuses due to layoffs lowered their reported fairness only slightly.Respondents in Silicon Valley were not more accepting of layoffsthan were those in Canada on average, although the justificationsconsidered valid differed slightly.

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Using the HEGY Procedure When Not All Roots Are Present

Empirical studies have shown little evidence to support the presence of all unit roots present in the $^{\Delta_4}$ filter in quarterly seasonal time series. This paper analyses the performance of the Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) (HEGY) procedure when the roots under the null are not all present. We exploit the Vector of Quarters representation and cointegration relationship between the quarters when factors $(1-L),(1+L),\bigg(1+L^2\bigg),\bigg(1-L^2\bigg) y \bigg(1+L+L^2+L^3\bigg)$ are a source of nonstationarity in a process in order to obtain the distribution of tests of the HEGY procedure when the underlying processes have a root at the zero, Nyquist frequency, two complex conjugates of frequency $^{\pi/2}$ and two combinations of the previous cases. We show both theoretically and through a Monte-Carlo analysis that the t-ratios $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_1}}$ and $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_2}}$ and the F-type tests used in the HEGY procedure have the same distribution as under the null of a seasonal random walk when the root(s) is/are present, although this is not the case for the t-ratio tests associated with unit roots at frequency $^{\pi/2}$.

Modifications in the Si valence band after ion-beam-induced oxidation

The changes undergone by the Si surface after oxygen bombardment have special interest for acquiring a good understanding of the Si+-ion emission during secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) analysis. For this reason a detailed investigation on the stoichiometry of the builtup surface oxides has been carried out using in situ x-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS). The XPS analysis of the Si 2p core level indicates a strong presence of suboxide chemical states when bombarding at angles of incidence larger than 30°. In this work a special emphasis on the analysis and interpretation of the valence band region was made. Since the surface stoichiometry or degree of oxidation varies with the angle of incidence, the respective valence band structures also differ. A comparison with experimentally measured and theoretically derived Si valence band and SiO2 valence band suggests that the new valence bands are formed by a combination of these two. This arises from the fact that Si¿Si bonds are present on the Si¿suboxide molecules, and therefore the corresponding 3p-3p Si-like subband, which extends towards the Si Fermi level, forms the top of the respective new valence bands. Small variations in intensity and energy position for this subband have drastic implications on the intensity of the Si+-ion emission during sputtering in SIMS measurements. A model combining chemically enhanced emission and resonant tunneling effects is suggested for the variations observed in ion emission during O+2 bombardment for Si targets.

Using the HEGY Procedure When Not All Roots Are Present

Empirical studies have shown little evidence to support the presence of all unit roots present in the $^{\Delta_4}$ filter in quarterly seasonal time series. This paper analyses the performance of the Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) (HEGY) procedure when the roots under the null are not all present. We exploit the Vector of Quarters representation and cointegration relationship between the quarters when factors $(1-L),(1+L),\bigg(1+L^2\bigg),\bigg(1-L^2\bigg) y \bigg(1+L+L^2+L^3\bigg)$ are a source of nonstationarity in a process in order to obtain the distribution of tests of the HEGY procedure when the underlying processes have a root at the zero, Nyquist frequency, two complex conjugates of frequency $^{\pi/2}$ and two combinations of the previous cases. We show both theoretically and through a Monte-Carlo analysis that the t-ratios $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_1}}$ and $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_2}}$ and the F-type tests used in the HEGY procedure have the same distribution as under the null of a seasonal random walk when the root(s) is/are present, although this is not the case for the t-ratio tests associated with unit roots at frequency $^{\pi/2}$.

Shell structure in mixed 3He-4He droplets

Due to the immiscibility of 3He into 4He at very low temperatures, mixed helium droplets consist of a core of 4He atoms coated by a 3He layer whose thickness depends on the number of atoms of each isotope. When these numbers are such that the centrifugal kinetic energy of the 3He atoms is small and can be considered as a perturbation to the mean-field energy, a novel shell structure arises, with magic numbers different from these of pure 3He droplets. If the outermost shell is not completely filled, the valence atoms align their spins up to the maximum value allowed by the Pauli principle.

Pulse propagation sustained by noise in arrays of bistable electronic circuits

One-dimensional arrays of nonlinear electronic circuits are shown to support propagation of pulses when operating in a locally bistable regime, provided the circuits are under the influence of a global noise. These external random fluctuations are applied to the parameter that controls the transition between bistable and monostable dynamics in the individual circuits. As a result, propagating fronts become destabilized in the presence of noise, and the system self-organizes to allow the transmission of pulses. The phenomenon is also observed in weakly coupled arrays, when propagation failure arises in the absence of noise.

Gauge transformations in Einstein-Yang-Mills theories

We discuss the relation between spacetime diffeomorphisms and gauge transformations in theories of the YangMills type coupled with Einsteins general relativity. We show that local symmetries of the Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formalisms of these generally covariant gauge systems are equivalent when gauge transformations are required to induce transformations which are projectable under the Legendre map. Although pure YangMills gauge transformations are projectable by themselves, diffeomorphisms are not. Instead, the projectable symmetry group arises from infinitesimal diffeomorphism-inducing transformations which must depend on the lapse function and shift vector of the spacetime metric plus associated gauge transformations. Our results are generalizations of earlier results by ourselves and by Salisbury and Sundermeyer. 2000 American Institute of Physics.

Brane-world creation and black holes

An inflating brane world can be created from ``nothing'' together with its anti-de Sitter (AdS) bulk. The resulting space-time has compact spatial sections bounded by the brane. During inflation, the continuum of KK modes is separated from the massless zero mode by the gap m=(3/2)H, where H is the Hubble rate. We consider the analogue of the Nariai solution and argue that it describes the pair production of ``black cigars'' attached to the inflating brane. In the case when the size of the instantons is much larger than the AdS radius, the 5-dimensional action agrees with the 4-dimensional one. Hence, the 5D and 4D gravitational entropies are the same in this limit. We also consider thermal instantons with an AdS black hole in the bulk. These may be interpreted as describing the creation of a hot universe from nothing or the production of AdS black holes in the vicinity of a pre-existing inflating brane world. The Lorentzian evolution of the brane world after creation is briefly discussed. An additional ``integration constant'' in the Friedmann equation-accompanying a term which dilutes like radiation-describes the tidal force in the fifth direction and arises from the mass of a spherical object inside the bulk. In general, this could be a 5-dimensional black hole or a ``parallel'' brane world of negative tension concentrical with our brane-world. In the case of thermal solutions, and in the spirit of the AdS/CFT correspondence, one may attribute the additional term to thermal radiation in the boundary theory. Then, for temperatures well below the AdS scale, the entropy of this radiation agrees with the entropy of the black hole in the AdS bulk.

When telegrapher's equation furnishes a better approximation to transport equation than the difussion approximation

It has been suggested that a solution to the transport equation which includes anisotropic scattering can be approximated by the solution to a telegrapher's equation [A.J. Ishimaru, Appl. Opt. 28, 2210 (1989)]. We show that in one dimension the telegrapher's equation furnishes an exact solution to the transport equation. In two dimensions, we show that, since the solution can become negative, the telegrapher's equation will not furnish a usable approximation. A comparison between simulated data in three dimensions indicates that the solution to the telegrapher's equation is a good approximation to that of the full transport equation at the times at which the diffusion equation furnishes an equally good approximation.

"When I have holidays": Influència entre llengües i producció escrita. Un estudi amb aprenents adults d'anglès com a llengua estrangera

En aquest article presentem una proposta de tipologia de la transferència lèxica en la producció escrita per tal d¿analitzar la incidència que té en adults aprenents d¿anglès com a llengua estrangera i veure les possibles relacions entre els tipus de transferència i el nivell de competència en anglès, així com les interrelacions entre les llengües prèvies (materna/es) i segones i l¿anglès. Els resultats mostren una influència important de la primera llengua en l¿aprenentatge de les altres i, en el cas dels aprenents bilingües que aprenen una tercera o quarta llengua, influències interessants entre totes les llengües.