Una comparación de la selección de los ratios contables en los modelos contable-financieros de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial : la literatura previa frente al analisis factorial

En los últimos 30 años la proliferación de modelos cuantitativos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial en la literatura contable y financiera ha despertado un gran interés entre los especialistas e investigadores de lamateria. Lo que en un principio fueron unos modelos elaborados con un único objetivo, han derivado en una fuente de investigación constante.En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. A través de un procedimiento por etapas se selecciona e interpreta cuáles son las más relevantes en cuanto a aportación de información.Una vez formulado este primer tipo de modelos se busca una alternativa a las variables anteriores a través de la técnica factorial del análisis de componentes principales. Con ella se hace una selección de variables y se aplica, junto conlos ratios anteriores, el análisis univariante. Por último, se comparan los modelos obtenidos y se concluye que aunque la literatura previa ofrece mejores porcentajes de clasificación, los modelos obtenidos a través del análisis decomponentes principales no deben ser rechazados por la claridad en la explicación de las causas que conducen a una empresa a la insolvencia.

Creació musical i improvisació. Crèdit variable per a primer cicle d'ESO

Document en què es proposen una sèrie d'activitats pràctiques ordenades i agrupades en sessions, per tal de treballar la creativitat i la improvisació musical amb els alumnes de secundària.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

A comparative long-memory Analysis between Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interest rates

Evidence exists that many natural facts are described better as a fractal. Although fractals are very useful for describing nature, it is also appropiate to review the concept of random fractal in finance. Due to the extraordinary importance of Brownian motion in physics, chemistry or biology, we will consider the generalization that supposes fractional Brownian motion introduced by Mandelbrot.The main goal of this work is to analyse the existence of long range dependence in instantaneous forward rates of different financial markets. Concretelly, we perform an empirical analysis on the Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interbanking interest rate. We work with three time series of daily data corresponding to 1 day operations from 28th March 1996 to 21st May 2002. From among all the existing tests on this matter we apply the methodology proposed in Taqqu, Teverovsky and Willinger (1995).

Term structure of interest rates. European financial integration

In this paper we estimate, analyze and compare the term structures of interest rates in six different countries over the period 1992-2004. We apply the Nelson-Siegel model to obtain the term structures of interest rates at weekly intervals. A total of 4,038 curves are estimated and analyzed. Four European Monetary Union countries¿Spain, France, Germany and Italy¿are included. The UK is also included as a European non-member of the Monetary Union. Finally the US completes the analysis. The goal is to determine the differences in the shapes of the term structure of interest rates among these countries. Likewise, we can determine the most usual term structure shapes that appear for each country.*****

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

Una comparación de la selección de los ratios contables en los modelos contable-financieros de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial : la literatura previa frente al analisis factorial

En los últimos 30 años la proliferación de modelos cuantitativos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial en la literatura contable y financiera ha despertado un gran interés entre los especialistas e investigadores de lamateria. Lo que en un principio fueron unos modelos elaborados con un único objetivo, han derivado en una fuente de investigación constante.En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. A través de un procedimiento por etapas se selecciona e interpreta cuáles son las más relevantes en cuanto a aportación de información.Una vez formulado este primer tipo de modelos se busca una alternativa a las variables anteriores a través de la técnica factorial del análisis de componentes principales. Con ella se hace una selección de variables y se aplica, junto conlos ratios anteriores, el análisis univariante. Por último, se comparan los modelos obtenidos y se concluye que aunque la literatura previa ofrece mejores porcentajes de clasificación, los modelos obtenidos a través del análisis decomponentes principales no deben ser rechazados por la claridad en la explicación de las causas que conducen a una empresa a la insolvencia.

A new and simple variable-angle accessory for infrared specular reflectance

A simple, low-cost accessory (patent pending) with only two flat mirrors and a new variable-angle mechanism has been developed for infrared specular reflectance measurements. The system allows the angles of incidence to be varied continuously from 15° (near normal incidence) to 85° (near grazing angle) without losing the alignment of the accessory. The reflectivity of boron nitride thin films deposited on metallic substrates has been measured at different angles of incidence to demonstrate the utility of this accessory.

Self-similarity properties of natural images resemble those of turbulent flows

We show that the statistics of an edge type variable in natural images exhibits self-similarity properties which resemble those of local energy dissipation in turbulent flows. Our results show that self-similarity and extended self-similarity hold remarkably for the statistics of the local edge variance, and that the very same models can be used to predict all of the associated exponents. These results suggest using natural images as a laboratory for testing more elaborate scaling models of interest for the statistical description of turbulent flows. The properties we have exhibited are relevant for the modeling of the early visual system: They should be included in models designed for the prediction of receptive fields.

Telegrapher's equation with variable propagation speeds

All derivations of the one-dimensional telegraphers equation, based on the persistent random walk model, assume a constant speed of signal propagation. We generalize here the model to allow for a variable propagation speed and study several limiting cases in detail. We also show the connections of this model with anomalous diffusion behavior and with inertial dichotomous processes.

A comparative long-memory Analysis between Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interest rates

Evidence exists that many natural facts are described better as a fractal. Although fractals are very useful for describing nature, it is also appropiate to review the concept of random fractal in finance. Due to the extraordinary importance of Brownian motion in physics, chemistry or biology, we will consider the generalization that supposes fractional Brownian motion introduced by Mandelbrot.The main goal of this work is to analyse the existence of long range dependence in instantaneous forward rates of different financial markets. Concretelly, we perform an empirical analysis on the Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interbanking interest rate. We work with three time series of daily data corresponding to 1 day operations from 28th March 1996 to 21st May 2002. From among all the existing tests on this matter we apply the methodology proposed in Taqqu, Teverovsky and Willinger (1995).

Term structure of interest rates. European financial integration

In this paper we estimate, analyze and compare the term structures of interest rates in six different countries over the period 1992-2004. We apply the Nelson-Siegel model to obtain the term structures of interest rates at weekly intervals. A total of 4,038 curves are estimated and analyzed. Four European Monetary Union countries¿Spain, France, Germany and Italy¿are included. The UK is also included as a European non-member of the Monetary Union. Finally the US completes the analysis. The goal is to determine the differences in the shapes of the term structure of interest rates among these countries. Likewise, we can determine the most usual term structure shapes that appear for each country.*****

The development of a web page for lipid science and research. Main web sites of interest

En internet encontramos gran cantidad de información científico-técnica cuya validez no suele estar controlada por comités correctores. Para aprovechar estos recursos es necesario filtrar y facilitar el acceso del usuario a la información. En este artículo se expone la experiencia práctica en el desarrollo de una página WEB centrada en las actividades del grupo de investigación «Calidad Nutricional y Tecnología de los Lípidos». Los objetivos de esta página WEB fueron los siguientes: difusión de las actividades del grupo de investigación, aprovechar los recursos que ofrece internet y fomentar y facilitar su uso. Esta experiencia permitió presentar una metodología de trabajo eficaz para conseguir estos objetivos. Finalmente, se presentan un gran número de direcciones WEB agrupadas por apartados en el ámbito de los lípidos. Estas direcciones han sido rigurosamente seleccionadas, entre un gran número de referencias consultadas, siguiendo una serie de criterios que se discuten en este trabajo, para ofrecer aquellas que presentan un mayor interés práctico.

Surface-dependent strategies and energy flux in benthic marine communities or, why corals do not exist in the Mediterranean

Most structure-building organisms in rocky benthic communities are surface-dependent because their energy inputs depend mainly on the surface they expose to water. Two photosynthetic strategies, divided into calcareous and non calcareous algae, strict suspension-feeders and photosynthetic suspension feeders (e.g. hermatypic corals) are the four main strategies evolutively acquired by benthic organisms. Competition between those strategies occur in relation to productivity of the different species, in such a way that, for given environmental conditions, species with a higher growth (P/B ratio) would dominate. At a worldwide scale, littoral marine benthos can he considered to fit into the four fields defined by two main axes: the first, relates to productivity and relies atrophic and oligotrophic waters and the second is defined by the degree of environmental variability or seasonality (from high to low). Coral reefs (marine ecosystems dominated by photosynthetic suspension feeders) develop in the space of oligotrophic areas with low variability, while kelp beds (marine ecosystem dominated by large, non calcareous algae) are to be found only in eutrophic places with a high variability. The space of eutrophic waters with a low variability do not has specially adapted, high structured, benthic marine ecosystems, and in these conditions opportunistic algae and animals predominate. Finally, photophilic mediterranean benthos -devoid of kelps and without hermatypic corals- typifies the field of oligotrophic areas with high variability; in its more genuine aspect, Mediterranean benthos is represented by small algae with a high percentage of calcareous thallii. In all cases strict suspension-feeders compete successfully with photosynthetic organisms only in situations of low irradiances or very high inputs of POM. In its turn, Mediterranean rocky benthos, in spite of its relative uniformity, is geographically organized along the same axes. The Gulf of Lions and the insular bottoms (Balearic Islands, for example) would correspond to the extremes of eutrophic-high variability areas and oligotrophic-low variability areas, respectively. Irradiance, nutrient and POM concentration, and hydrodynamism are the three variables which mainly affect the distribution of the different surface-dependent strategies, and thus, these parameters are of paramount interest for understanding the trophic structure of Mediterranean benthic communities. In environments non limited by light, nutrient availability, defined as the product between nutrient -POM concentration and hydrodynamism, states the dominance of calcareous versus non calcareous algae. Calcareous algae dominate in oligotrophic waters while non-calcareous algae dominate in moderately eutrophic waters. In light-limited environments, passive suspension feeders (octocorallaria, gorgonians) become dominant species if POM availability is enhanced by a high hydrodynamism (strong currents); in waters with a low charge of POM organisms of other groups, mainly active suspension feeders, predominate (sponges, bryozoans, scleractiniarians). In any case, there always exists a very variable bathymetric zone, depending on light attenuation and nutrient-POM availability, where encrusting calcareous algae strongly compete with suspension feeders (coralligenous).

Multivariate prediction

The problem of prediction is considered in a multidimensional setting. Extending an idea presented by Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, a predictive density for a multivariate random variable of interest is proposed. This density has the form of an estimative density plus a correction term. It gives simultaneous prediction regions with coverage error of smaller asymptotic order than the estimative density. A simulation study is also presented showing the magnitude of the improvement with respect to the estimative method.