Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry applied to the identification of transformation products of quinolones from stability studies and new metabolites of enrofloxacin in chicken muscle tissues

The aim of this work was the identification of new metabolites and transformation products (TPs) in chicken muscle from Enrofloxacin (ENR), Ciprofloxacin (CIP), Difloxacin (DIF) and Sarafloxacin (SAR), which are antibiotics that belong to the fluoroquinolones family. The stability of ENR, CIP, DIF and SAR standard solutions versus pH degradation process (from pH 1.5 to 8.0, simulating the pH since the drug is administered until its excretion) and freeze-thawing (F/T) cycles was tested. In addition, chicken muscle samples from medicated animals with ENR were analyzed in order to identify new metabolites and TPs. The identification of the different metabolites and TPs was accomplished by comparison of mass spectral data from samples and blanks, using liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole time-of-flight (LC-QqToF) and Multiple Mass Defect Filter (MMDF) technique as a pre-filter to remove most of the background noise and endogenous components. Confirmation and structure elucidation was performed by liquid chromatography coupled to linear ion trap quadrupole Orbitrap (LC-LTQ-Orbitrap), due to its mass accuracy and MS/MS capacity for elemental composition determination. As a result, 21 TPs from ENR, 6 TPs from CIP, 14 TPs from DIF and 12 TPs from SAR were identified due to the pH shock and F/T cycles. On the other hand, 14 metabolites were identified from the medicated chicken muscle samples. Formation of CIP and SAR, from ENR and DIF, respectively, and the formation of desethylene-quinolone were the most remarkable identified compounds.

High-resolution mass spectrometry applied to theidentification of transformation products of quinolones from stability studies and new metabolites of enrofloxacin in chicken muscle tissues

The aim of this work was the identification of new metabolites and transformation products (TPs) in chicken muscle from Enrofloxacin (ENR), Ciprofloxacin (CIP), Difloxacin (DIF) and Sarafloxacin (SAR), which are antibiotics that belong to the fluoroquinolones family. The stability of ENR, CIP, DIF and SAR standard solutions versus pH degradation process (from pH 1.5 to 8.0, simulating the pH since the drug is administered until its excretion) and freeze-thawing (F/T) cycles was tested. In addition, chicken muscle samples from medicated animals with ENR were analyzed in order to identify new metabolites and TPs. The identification of the different metabolites and TPs was accomplished by comparison of mass spectral data from samples and blanks, using liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole time-of-flight (LC-QqToF) and Multiple Mass Defect Filter (MMDF) technique as a pre-filter to remove most of the background noise and endogenous components. Confirmation and structure elucidation was performed by liquid chromatography coupled to linear ion trap quadrupole Orbitrap (LC-LTQ-Orbitrap), due to its mass accuracy and MS/MS capacity for elemental composition determination. As a result, 21 TPs from ENR, 6 TPs from CIP, 14 TPs from DIF and 12 TPs from SAR were identified due to the pH shock and F/T cycles. On the other hand, 14 metabolites were identified from the medicated chicken muscle samples. Formation of CIP and SAR, from ENR and DIF, respectively, and the formation of desethylene-quinolone were the most remarkable identified compounds.

Fluid dynamical prediction of changed v1-flow at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Substantial collective flow is observed in collisions between lead nuclei at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) as evidenced by the azimuthal correlations in the transverse momentum distributions of the produced particles. Our calculations indicate that the global v1-flow, which at RHIC peaked at negative rapidities (named third flow component or antiflow), now at LHC is going to turn toward forward rapidities (to the same side and direction as the projectile residue). Potentially this can provide a sensitive barometer to estimate the pressure and transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma. Our calculations also take into account the initial state center-of-mass rapidity fluctuations, and demonstrate that these are crucial for v1 simulations. In order to better study the transverse momentum flow dependence we suggest a new"symmetrized" vS1(pt) function, and we also propose a new method to disentangle global v1 flow from the contribution generated by the random fluctuations in the initial state. This will enhance the possibilities of studying the collective Global v1 flow both at the STAR Beam Energy Scan program and at LHC.

An investigation of the resolution of inflammation (catabasis) in COPD.

Background: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is characterized by an enhanced inflammatory response to smoking that persists despite quitting. The resolution of inflammation (catabasis) is a complex and highly regulated process where tissue resident macrophages play a key role since they phagocytose apoptotic cells (efferocytosis), preventing their secondary necrosis and the spill-over of their pro-inflammatory cytoplasmic content, and release pro-resolution and tissue repair molecules, such as TGFβ, VEGF and HGF. Because inflammation does not resolve in COPD, we hypothesized that catabasis may be abnormal in these patients. Methods: To explore this hypothesis, we studied lung tissue samples obtained at surgery from 21 COPD patients,22 smokers with normal spirometry and 13 non-smokers controls. In these samples we used: (1)immunohistochemistry to assess the expression of CD44, CD36, VEGF and TGFβ in lung macrophages; (2) real time PCR to determine HGF, PPARγ, TGFβ, VEGF and MMP-9 gene expression; and, (3) ELISA to quantify lipoxin A4, a lipid mediator of catabasis. Results: We found that current and former smokers with COPD showed: (1) more inflammation (higher MMP-9 expression); (2) reduced macrophage surface expression of CD44, a key efferocytosis receptor; and, (3) similar levels of TGFβ, VEGF, HGF, PPARγ, and lipoxin A4 than smokers with normal spirometry, despite the presence of inflammation and disease. Conclusions: These results identify several potential abnormalities of catabasis in patients with COPD.

Subjectively adapted high capacity lossless image data hiding based on prediction errors

This article reports on a lossless data hiding scheme for digital images where the data hiding capacity is either determined by minimum acceptable subjective quality or by the demanded capacity. In the proposed method data is hidden within the image prediction errors, where the most well-known prediction algorithms such as the median edge detector (MED), gradient adjacent prediction (GAP) and Jiang prediction are tested for this purpose. In this method, first the histogram of the prediction errors of images are computed and then based on the required capacity or desired image quality, the prediction error values of frequencies larger than this capacity are shifted. The empty space created by such a shift is used for embedding the data. Experimental results show distinct superiority of the image prediction error histogram over the conventional image histogram itself, due to much narrower spectrum of the former over the latter. We have also devised an adaptive method for hiding data, where subjective quality is traded for data hiding capacity. Here the positive and negative error values are chosen such that the sum of their frequencies on the histogram is just above the given capacity or above a certain quality.

What makes one person paranoid and another person anxious? The differential prediction of social anxiety and persecutory ideation in an experimental situation

The study shows that social anxiety and persecutory ideation share many of the same predictive factors. Non-clinical paranoia may be a type of anxious fear. However, perceptual anomalies are a distinct predictor of paranoia. In the context of an individual feeling anxious, the occurrence of odd internal feelings in social situations may lead to delusional ideas through a sense of" things not seeming right". The study illustrates the approach of focusing on experiences such as paranoid thinking rather than diagnoses such as schizophrenia.

Prediction of crude protein and classification of the growth stage of wheat plant samples from NIR spectra

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to analyse the crude protein content of dried and milled samples of wheat and to discriminate samples according to their stage of growth. A calibration set of 72 samples from three growth stages of wheat (tillering, heading and harvest) and a validation set of 28 samples was collected for this purpose. Principal components analysis (PCA) of the calibration set discriminated groups of samples according to the growth stage of the wheat. Based on these differences, a classification procedure (SIMCA) showed a very accurate classification of the validation set samples : all of them were successfully classified in each group using this procedure when both the residual and the leverage were used in the classification criteria. Looking only at the residuals all the samples were also correctly classified except one of tillering stage that was assigned to both tillering and heading stages. Finally, the determination of the crude protein content of these samples was considered in two ways: building up a global model for all the growth stages, and building up local models for each stage, separately. The best prediction results for crude protein were obtained using a global model for samples in the two first growth stages (tillering and heading), and using a local model for the harvest stage samples.

Prediction of rabbit meat and bone weight using measurements and sample cuts

Regression equations predicting dissectable muscle weight in rabbits from external measurements were presented. Bone weight and weight of muscle groups were also carcass predicted. Predictive capacity of external measurements, retail cuts and muscle groups on total muscle, percent muscle, total bone and muscle to bone ratio were studied separately. Measurements on dissected retail cuts should be included in ordcr to obtain good equations for prediction of percent muscle in the carcass. Equations for predicting the muscle to bone ratio using external mcasurcments and data from the dissection of one hind leg were suggested. The equations had generally high coefficients of determination. The coefficient of determination for prediction of dissectable muscle was 0.91, and for percent muscle in the carcass 0.79.

Aggressivity, violence, sociability and conflict resolution: What genes can tell us.

Conflicts are inherent to the human condition, as they are for all living beings. Disputes about resources or access to mating partners are among the most common causes of conflict. Conflict is herein defined as a struggle or contest between individuals or parties, and may involve a variety of aggressive behaviours. In humans, aggressiveness, violence and conflicts, including individual predisposal to conflict resolution, have traditionally been said to have deep cultural roots, but recent research in both neuroscience and genetics has shown the influence of genes on such complex behavioural traits. In this paper, recent data on the genetic aspects of these interrelated behaviours will be put together, including the effects of particular genes, the influence of stress and gender on gene regulation, and gene-environment interactions, all of which may influence biological predisposal to conflict resolution. Other genetically influenced behavioural aspects involved in conflicts and conflict resolution, such as sociability, will also be discussed. The importance of taking into account genetic and biological data to provide strategies for conflict resolution will be highlighted.

Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

The performance of a hydrologic model depends on the rainfall input data, both spatially and temporally. As the spatial distribution of rainfall exerts a great influence on both runoff volumes and peak flows, the use of a distributed hydrologic model can improve the results in the case of convective rainfall in a basin where the storm area is smaller than the basin area. The aim of this study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the rainfall time resolution on the results of a distributed hydrologic model in a flash-flood prone basin. Within such a catchment, floods are produced by heavy rainfall events with a large convective component. A second objective of the current paper is the proposal of a methodology that improves the radar rainfall estimation at a higher spatial and temporal resolution. Composite radar data from a network of three C-band radars with 6-min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution were used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A modification of the Window Probability Matching Method (gauge-adjustment method) was applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation by computing new Z/R relationships for both convective and stratiform reflectivities. An advection correction technique based on the cross-correlation between two consecutive images was introduced to obtain several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. The RIBS hydrologic model was calibrated using a probabilistic approach based on a multiobjective methodology for each time resolution. A sensitivity analysis of rainfall time resolution was conducted to find the resolution that best represents the hydrological basin behaviour.

Risk Prediction Scores for Recurrence and Progression of Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer: An International Validation in Primary Tumours

Abstract Objective: We aimed to determine the validity of two risk scores for patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer in different European settings, in patients with primary tumours. Methods: We included 1,892 patients with primary stage Ta or T1 non-muscle invasive bladder cancer who underwent a transurethral resection in Spain (n = 973), the Netherlands (n = 639), or Denmark (n = 280). We evaluated recurrence-free survival and progression-free survival according to the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment (CUETO) risk scores for each patient and used the concordance index (c-index) to indicate discriminative ability. Results: The 3 cohorts were comparable according to age and sex, but patients from Denmark had a larger proportion of patients with the high stage and grade at diagnosis (p,0.01). At least one recurrence occurred in 839 (44%) patients and 258 (14%) patients had a progression during a median follow-up of 74 months. Patients from Denmark had the highest 10- year recurrence and progression rates (75% and 24%, respectively), whereas patients from Spain had the lowest rates (34% and 10%, respectively). The EORTC and CUETO risk scores both predicted progression better than recurrence with c-indices ranging from 0.72 to 0.82 while for recurrence, those ranged from 0.55 to 0.61. Conclusion: The EORTC and CUETO risk scores can reasonably predict progression, while prediction of recurrence is more difficult. New prognostic markers are needed to better predict recurrence of tumours in primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancer patients.

Source separation techniques applied to linear prediction

The prediction filters are well known models for signal estimation, in communications, control and many others areas. The classical method for deriving linear prediction coding (LPC) filters is often based on the minimization of a mean square error (MSE). Consequently, second order statistics are only required, but the estimation is only optimal if the residue is independent and identically distributed (iid) Gaussian. In this paper, we derive the ML estimate of the prediction filter. Relationships with robust estimation of auto-regressive (AR) processes, with blind deconvolution and with source separation based on mutual information minimization are then detailed. The algorithm, based on the minimization of a high-order statistics criterion, uses on-line estimation of the residue statistics. Experimental results emphasize on the interest of this approach.

Nonlinear prediction based on score function

The linear prediction coding of speech is based in the assumption that the generation model is autoregresive. In this paper we propose a structure to cope with the nonlinear effects presents in the generation of the speech signal. This structure will consist of two stages, the first one will be a classical linear prediction filter, and the second one will model the residual signal by means of two nonlinearities between a linear filter. The coefficients of this filter are computed by means of a gradient search on the score function. This is done in order to deal with the fact that the probability distribution of the residual signal still is not gaussian. This fact is taken into account when the coefficients are computed by a ML estimate. The algorithm based on the minimization of a high-order statistics criterion, uses on-line estimation of the residue statistics and is based on blind deconvolution of Wiener systems [1]. Improvements in the experimental results with speech signals emphasize on the interest of this approach.

Fluid dynamical prediction of changed v1-flow at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Substantial collective flow is observed in collisions between lead nuclei at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) as evidenced by the azimuthal correlations in the transverse momentum distributions of the produced particles. Our calculations indicate that the global v1-flow, which at RHIC peaked at negative rapidities (named third flow component or antiflow), now at LHC is going to turn toward forward rapidities (to the same side and direction as the projectile residue). Potentially this can provide a sensitive barometer to estimate the pressure and transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma. Our calculations also take into account the initial state center-of-mass rapidity fluctuations, and demonstrate that these are crucial for v1 simulations. In order to better study the transverse momentum flow dependence we suggest a new"symmetrized" vS1(pt) function, and we also propose a new method to disentangle global v1 flow from the contribution generated by the random fluctuations in the initial state. This will enhance the possibilities of studying the collective Global v1 flow both at the STAR Beam Energy Scan program and at LHC.