Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Transfer entropy reconstruction and labeling of neuronal connections from simulated calcium imaging

Neuronal dynamics are fundamentally constrained by the underlying structural network architecture, yet much of the details of this synaptic connectivity are still unknown even in neuronal cultures in vitro. Here we extend a previous approach based on information theory, the Generalized Transfer Entropy, to the reconstruction of connectivity of simulated neuronal networks of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons. We show that, due to the model-free nature of the developed measure, both kinds of connections can be reliably inferred if the average firing rate between synchronous burst events exceeds a small minimum frequency. Furthermore, we suggest, based on systematic simulations, that even lower spontaneous inter-burst rates could be raised to meet the requirements of our reconstruction algorithm by applying a weak spatially homogeneous stimulation to the entire network. By combining multiple recordings of the same in silico network before and after pharmacologically blocking inhibitory synaptic transmission, we show then how it becomes possible to infer with high confidence the excitatory or inhibitory nature of each individual neuron.

Algorithms and cryptographic protocols using elliptic curves

En els darrers anys, la criptografia amb corbes el.líptiques ha adquirit una importància creixent, fins a arribar a formar part en la actualitat de diferents estàndards industrials. Tot i que s'han dissenyat variants amb corbes el.líptiques de criptosistemes clàssics, com el RSA, el seu màxim interès rau en la seva aplicació en criptosistemes basats en el Problema del Logaritme Discret, com els de tipus ElGamal. En aquest cas, els criptosistemes el.líptics garanteixen la mateixa seguretat que els construïts sobre el grup multiplicatiu d'un cos finit primer, però amb longituds de clau molt menor. Mostrarem, doncs, les bones propietats d'aquests criptosistemes, així com els requeriments bàsics per a que una corba sigui criptogràficament útil, estretament relacionat amb la seva cardinalitat. Revisarem alguns mètodes que permetin descartar corbes no criptogràficament útils, així com altres que permetin obtenir corbes bones a partir d'una de donada. Finalment, descriurem algunes aplicacions, com són el seu ús en Targes Intel.ligents i sistemes RFID, per concloure amb alguns avenços recents en aquest camp.

Integrating defeasible argumentation with fuzzy ART neural networks for pattern classification

Many classification systems rely on clustering techniques in which a collection of training examples is provided as an input, and a number of clusters c1,...cm modelling some concept C results as an output, such that every cluster ci is labelled as positive or negative. Given a new, unlabelled instance enew, the above classification is used to determine to which particular cluster ci this new instance belongs. In such a setting clusters can overlap, and a new unlabelled instance can be assigned to more than one cluster with conflicting labels. In the literature, such a case is usually solved non-deterministically by making a random choice. This paper presents a novel, hybrid approach to solve this situation by combining a neural network for classification along with a defeasible argumentation framework which models preference criteria for performing clustering.

Modelling bird species richness with neural networks for forest landscape management in NE Spain

Para preservar la biodiversidad de los ecosistemas forestales de la Europa mediterránea en escenarios actuales y futuros de cambio global mediante una gestión forestal sostenible es necesario determinar cómo influye el medio ambiente y las propias características de los bosques sobre la biodiversidad que éstos albergan. Con este propósito, se analizó la influencia de diferentes factores ambientales y de estructura y composición del bosque sobre la riqueza de aves forestales a escala 1 × 1 km en Cataluña (NE de España). Se construyeron modelos univariantes y multivariantes de redes neuronales para respectivamente explorar la respuesta individual a las variables y obtener un modelo parsimonioso (ecológicamente interpretable) y preciso. La superficie de bosque (con una fracción de cabida cubierta superior a 5%), la fracción de cabida cubierta media, la temperatura anual y la precipitación estival medias fueron los mejores predictores de la riqueza de aves forestales. La red neuronal multivariante obtenida tuvo una buena capacidad de generalización salvo en las localidades con una mayor riqueza. Además, los bosques con diferentes grados de apertura del dosel arbóreo, más maduros y más diversos en cuanto a su composición de especies arbóreas se asociaron de forma positiva con una mayor riqueza de aves forestales. Finalmente, se proporcionan directrices de gestión para la planificación forestal que permitan promover la diversidad ornítica en esta región de la Europa mediterránea.

Statistical modelling of CSP solving algorithms performance

The goal of this work is to try to create a statistical model, based only on easily computable parameters from the CSP problem to predict runtime behaviour of the solving algorithms, and let us choose the best algorithm to solve the problem. Although it seems that the obvious choice should be MAC, experimental results obtained so far show, that with big numbers of variables, other algorithms perfom much better, specially for hard problems in the transition phase.

Wnt-3a and Wnt-3 differently stimulate proliferation and neurogenesis of spinal neural precursors and promote neurite outgrowth by canonical signaling

Wnt factors regulate neural stem cell development and neuronal connectivity. Here we investigated whether Wnt-3a and Wnt-3, expressed in the developing spinal cord, regulate proliferation and the neuronal differentiation of spinal cord neural precursors (SCNP). Wnt-3a promoted a sustained increase of SCNP proliferation, whereas Wnt-3 enhanced SCNP proliferation transiently and increased neurogenesis through β-catenin signaling. Consistent with this, Wnt-3a and Wnt-3 differently regulate the expression of Cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors. Furthermore, Wnt-3a and Wnt-3 stimulated neurite outgrowth in SCNP-derived neurons through ß-catenin and TCF4-dependent transcription. GSK-3ß inhibitors mimicked Wnt signaling and promoted neurite outgrowth in established cultures. We conclude that Wnt-3a and Wnt-3 signal through the canonical Wnt/β-catenin pathway to regulate different aspects of SCNP development. These findings may be of therapeutic interest for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases and nerve injury.

All-sky search algorithms for monochromatic signals in bar gravitational wave detector data

In this paper we design and develop several filtering strategies for the analysis of data generated by a resonant bar gravitational wave (GW) antenna, with the goal of assessing the presence (or absence) therein of long-duration monochromatic GW signals, as well as the eventual amplitude and frequency of the signals, within the sensitivity band of the detector. Such signals are most likely generated in the fast rotation of slightly asymmetric spinning stars. We develop practical procedures, together with a study of their statistical properties, which will provide us with useful information on the performance of each technique. The selection of candidate events will then be established according to threshold-crossing probabilities, based on the Neyman-Pearson criterion. In particular, it will be shown that our approach, based on phase estimation, presents a better signal-to-noise ratio than does pure spectral analysis, the most common approach.

Simulated Annealing, High-Order Statistics and Mutual Information for Separation of Sources

In this article, the fusion of a stochastic metaheuristic as Simulated Annealing (SA) with classical criteria for convergence of Blind Separation of Sources (BSS), is shown. Although the topic of BSS, by means of various techniques, including ICA, PCA, and neural networks, has been amply discussed in the literature, to date the possibility of using simulated annealing algorithms has not been seriously explored. From experimental results, this paper demonstrates the possible benefits offered by SA in combination with high order statistical and mutual information criteria for BSS, such as robustness against local minima and a high degree of flexibility in the energy function.

Generalization transitions in Hidden-Layer neural networks for third-order feature discrimination

Stochastic learning processes for a specific feature detector are studied. This technique is applied to nonsmooth multilayer neural networks requested to perform a discrimination task of order 3 based on the ssT-block¿ssC-block problem. Our system proves to be capable of achieving perfect generalization, after presenting finite numbers of examples, by undergoing a phase transition. The corresponding annealed theory, which involves the Ising model under external field, shows good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations.

Design and evaluation of learning algorithms for dynamic resource management in virtual networks

Network virtualisation is considerably gaining attentionas a solution to ossification of the Internet. However, thesuccess of network virtualisation will depend in part on how efficientlythe virtual networks utilise substrate network resources.In this paper, we propose a machine learning-based approachto virtual network resource management. We propose to modelthe substrate network as a decentralised system and introducea learning algorithm in each substrate node and substrate link,providing self-organization capabilities. We propose a multiagentlearning algorithm that carries out the substrate network resourcemanagement in a coordinated and decentralised way. The taskof these agents is to use evaluative feedback to learn an optimalpolicy so as to dynamically allocate network resources to virtualnodes and links. The agents ensure that while the virtual networkshave the resources they need at any given time, only the requiredresources are reserved for this purpose. Simulations show thatour dynamic approach significantly improves the virtual networkacceptance ratio and the maximum number of accepted virtualnetwork requests at any time while ensuring that virtual networkquality of service requirements such as packet drop rate andvirtual link delay are not affected.

Detection of severe obstructive sleep apnea through voice analysis

tThis paper deals with the potential and limitations of using voice and speech processing to detect Obstruc-tive Sleep Apnea (OSA). An extensive body of voice features has been extracted from patients whopresent various degrees of OSA as well as healthy controls. We analyse the utility of a reduced set offeatures for detecting OSA. We apply various feature selection and reduction schemes (statistical rank-ing, Genetic Algorithms, PCA, LDA) and compare various classifiers (Bayesian Classifiers, kNN, SupportVector Machines, neural networks, Adaboost). S-fold crossvalidation performed on 248 subjects showsthat in the extreme cases (that is, 127 controls and 121 patients with severe OSA) voice alone is able todiscriminate quite well between the presence and absence of OSA. However, this is not the case withmild OSA and healthy snoring patients where voice seems to play a secondary role. We found that thebest classification schemes are achieved using a Genetic Algorithm for feature selection/reduction.

Defining housing market areas using commuting and migration algorithms. Catalonia (Spain) as an applied case study

In the literature on housing market areas, different approaches can be found to defining them, for example, using travel-to-work areas and, more recently, making use of migration data. Here we propose a simple exercise to shed light on which approach performs better. Using regional data from Catalonia, Spain, we have computed housing market areas with both commuting data and migration data. In order to decide which procedure shows superior performance, we have looked at uniformity of prices within areas. The main finding is that commuting algorithms present more homogeneous areas in terms of housing prices.

Alternative Techniques of Neural Signal Processing in Neuroengineering

Neural signal processing is a discipline within neuroengineering. This interdisciplinary approach combines principles from machine learning, signal processing theory, and computational neuroscience applied to problems in basic and clinical neuroscience. The ultimate goal of neuroengineering is a technological revolution, where machines would interact in real time with the brain. Machines and brains could interface, enabling normal function in cases of injury or disease, brain monitoring, and/or medical rehabilitation of brain disorders. Much current research in neuroengineering is focused on understanding the coding and processing of information in the sensory and motor systems, quantifying how this processing is altered in the pathological state, and how it can be manipulated through interactions with artificial devices including brain–computer interfaces and neuroprosthetics.

Neural mechanisms underlying adaptive actions after slips

An increase in cognitive control has been systematically observed in responses produced immediately after the commission of an error. Such responses show a delay in reaction time (post-error slowing) and an increase in accuracy. To characterize the neurophysiological mechanism involved in the adaptation of cognitive control, we examined oscillatory electrical brain activity by electroencephalogram and its corresponding neural network by event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging in three experiments. We identified a new oscillatory thetabeta component related to the degree of post-error slowing in the correct responses following an erroneous trial. Additionally, we found that the activity of the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, the right inferior frontal cortex, and the right superior frontal cortex was correlated with the degree of caution shown in the trial following the commission of an error. Given the overlap between this brain network and the regions activated by the need to inhibit motor responses in a stop-signal manipulation, we conclude that the increase in cognitive control observed after the commission of an error is implemented through the participation of an inhibitory mechanism.