Eliciting consumers preferences using stated preference discrete choice models: Contingent ranking versus choice experiment

The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, to carry out a theoreticalreview of the most recent stated preference techniques used foreliciting consumers preferences and, secondly, to compare the empiricalresults of two dierent stated preference discrete choice approaches.They dier in the measurement scale for the dependent variable and,therefore, in the estimation method, despite both using a multinomiallogit. One of the approaches uses a complete ranking of full-profiles(contingent ranking), that is, individuals must rank a set ofalternatives from the most to the least preferred, and the other usesa first-choice rule in which individuals must select the most preferredoption from a choice set (choice experiment). From the results werealize how important the measurement scale for the dependent variablebecomes and, to what extent, procedure invariance is satisfied.

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

On the tractability of the piecewise-linear approximation for general discrete-choice network revenue management

The choice network revenue management (RM) model incorporates customer purchase behavioras customers purchasing products with certain probabilities that are a function of the offeredassortment of products, and is the appropriate model for airline and hotel network revenuemanagement, dynamic sales of bundles, and dynamic assortment optimization. The underlyingstochastic dynamic program is intractable and even its certainty-equivalence approximation, inthe form of a linear program called Choice Deterministic Linear Program (CDLP) is difficultto solve in most cases. The separation problem for CDLP is NP-complete for MNL with justtwo segments when their consideration sets overlap; the affine approximation of the dynamicprogram is NP-complete for even a single-segment MNL. This is in contrast to the independentclass(perfect-segmentation) case where even the piecewise-linear approximation has been shownto be tractable. In this paper we investigate the piecewise-linear approximation for network RMunder a general discrete-choice model of demand. We show that the gap between the CDLP andthe piecewise-linear bounds is within a factor of at most 2. We then show that the piecewiselinearapproximation is polynomially-time solvable for a fixed consideration set size, bringing itinto the realm of tractability for small consideration sets; small consideration sets are a reasonablemodeling tradeoff in many practical applications. Our solution relies on showing that forany discrete-choice model the separation problem for the linear program of the piecewise-linearapproximation can be solved exactly by a Lagrangian relaxation. We give modeling extensionsand show by numerical experiments the improvements from using piecewise-linear approximationfunctions.

The effect of age at the first mating and herd size on the lifetime productivity of sows

The effect of age at the first mating and herd size were evaluated in the reference Spanish Databank (BDporc) of 37 698 sows born between 1991 and 1995 and with individual lifetime records. The data included dates of births at entrance and culling, first mating, repetitive mating and conception, first farrowing and weaning records. Individual records were validated before the analysis by screening them through a tolerance “filter” in order to eliminate the extreme values from the analysis. The total database of the sows was classified in 7 classes according to age at the first mating (< 210, 210–220, 221–230, 231–240, 241–250, 251–270, and > 270 days) and in 6 classes of herd size (< 200, 200–300, 301–400, 401–600, 601–800, and > 800 sows). The total number of litters and number of weaned piglets obtained from each sow during the lifetime production were significantly (P < 0.05) greater for gilts between 221 and 240 d of age at the first mating. There was a significant (P < 0.001) effect of the herd size on the reproductive performance of the sow, and the best performance was obtained with herds with 401 to 600 sows compared to < 200 or > 800 sow-herds. Furthermore, a significant (P < 0.001) interaction between age at the first mating and herd size was detected and can be associated with a particular pattern for the herd size class 401–600 sows with the best performances obtained for the sows first mated at less than 200 days. For the other herd sizes, the results indicated that sows mated for the first time at the right age, 221–240 days, are more productive, both in the number and size of the parities throughout lifetime production.

Courtship and mating behaviour of the Mediterranean corn borer, Sesamia nonagrioides (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Se describe la secuencia de cortejo y apareamiento de machos y hembras de Sesamia nonagrioides (Lefèbvre) en el laboratorio. Esta secuencia no varió en presencia o ausencia de plantas de maíz. Se estudió la capacidad de atracción de un sexo sobre el otro atando el individuo de un sexo y dejando libre al complementario. La secuencia de cortejo y apareo de las hembras atadas fue la misma que la de las no atadas, pero los machos atados permanecieron absolutamente inactivos. La edad de los adultos (1 día versus 2 días) no afectó al porcentaje de apareamiento. Se encontraron diferencias en la hora del inicio de la llamada de las hembras y en la edad de las hembras en la primera llamada entre la población estudiada y lo descrito para una población griega, diferencias que podrían estar relacionadas con el origen geográfico. Se discute el papel de los penachos abdominales de los machos en el vuelo de cortejo, rechazándose que estimulen el comportamiento de llamada de las hembras o que las atraigan. Cuando no se aplicaron feromonas, el porcentaje de apareamiento en el laboratorio o en el campo no varió cuando aumentó la densidad de la población. Sin embargo, en los campos en que se aplicó confusión sexual, el porcentaje de apareamiento aumentó al aumentar la densidad de adultos. En la discusión se aportan algunas consecuencias para la investigación de la composición de las feromonas y su uso para el seguimiento de plagas y el control mediante confusión sexual.

Comparison of lures loaded with codlemone and pear ester for capturing codling moths, Cydia pomonella, in apple and pear orchards using mating disruption

Studies were conducted in apple, Malus domestica Borkhausen and pear, Pyrus communis L. (Rosales: Rosaceae), orchards to evaluate the attractiveness of grey halobutyl septa loaded with 1 (L2) and 10 (Mega) mg of codlemone, 8E,10E-dodecadien-1-ol, 3 mg of pear ester, ethyl (E,Z)- 2,4-decadienoate (DA2313), and 3 mg of pear ester plus 3 mg of codlemone (Combo) to adult codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). All studies were conducted in orchards treated with pheromone mating disruption. All four lures were tested on diamond-shaped sticky traps placed in 60 plots of apple and 40 plots of pears in 2003/04, and in 62 plots of apples and 30 of pears in 2004-05. Combo lures attracted significantly more moths (males + females) than all the others in both years. Comparisons among flights showed significant differences mainly for flight 1 and 2, but not always for flight 3. Mega lures provided no significant improvement compared with L2 lures during both seasons regarding the total number of moths. Combo and DA2313 lures attracted fewer females than males during the whole season. For most sample dates, more virgin than mated females were attracted to Combo lures, except during the third flight, and the overall ratio was 60:40, although the difference was not statistically significant. We conclude that the Combo lures are better indicators of codling moth activity in pheromone treated orchards, regardless of pest population level, when compared with similar lures containing codlemone or pear ester alone.

The determinants of contractual choice for private involvement in infrastructure projects in the United States

Reliance on private partners to help provide infrastructure investment and service delivery is increasing in the United States. Numerous studies have examined the determinants of the degree of private participation in infrastructure projects as governed by contract type. We depart from this simple public/private dichotomy by examining a rich set of contractual arrangements. We utilize both municipal and state-level data on 472 projects of various types completed between 1985 and 2008. Our estimates indicate that infrastructure characteristics, particularly those that reflect stand alone versus network characteristics, are key factors influencing the extent of private participation. Fiscal variables, such as a jurisdiction’s relative debt level, and basic controls, such as population and locality of government, increase the degree of private participation, while a greater tax burden reduces private participation.

Recovery Risk and Labor Costs in Public-Private Partnerships : Contractual Choice in the US Water industry

We use an ordered logistic model to empirically examine the factors that explain varying degrees of private involvement in the U.S. water sector through public-private partnerships. Our estimates suggest that a variety of factors help explain greater private participation in this sector. We find that the risk to private participants regarding cost recovery is an important driver of private participation. The relative cost of labor is also a key factor in determining the degree of private involvement in the contract choice. When public wages are high relative to private wages, private participation is viewed as a source of cost savings. We thus find two main drivers of greater private involvement: one encouraging private participation by reducing risk, and another encouraging government to seek out private participation in lowering costs.

Consumer valuation of energy-saving features of residential air conditioners with hedonic and choice models

The promotion of energy-efficient appliances is necessary to reduce the energetic and environmental burden of the household sector. However, many studies have reported that a typical consumer underestimates the benefits of energy-saving investment on the purchase of household electric appliances. To analyze this energy-efficiency gap problem, many scholars have estimated implicit discount rates that consumers use for energy-consuming durables. Although both hedonic and choice models have been used in previous studies, a comparison between two models has not yet been done. This study uses point of sale data about Japanese residential air conditioners and estimates implicit discounts rates with both hedonic and choice models. Both models demonstrate that a typical consumer underinvests in energy efficiency. Although choice models estimate a lower implicit discount rate than hedonic models, the latter models estimate the values of other product characteristics more consistently than choice models.

Effects of institutional environment and technology development on payment choice

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the combination of institutional factors and technology advances as determinants of payment systems choice. The theoretical set up suggests that countries entering into a new institutional environment approach accepting group attitudes towards payment choices as a consequence of institutional pressure and technology development. We apply the results of the model to 2004 European Union enlargement process. Results confirm the relevance of both institutional environment and technology development in retail payment system decisions of newly acceded countries.