Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibrationexercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of theprocedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particularreference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide anoverview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problemand compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--lineardynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated modelto the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standardproblem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether amodel with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate savingand aggregate investment in an open economy.

Trade liberalization, exports and technology upgrading: Evidence on the impact of MERCOSUR on Argentinean firms

This paper studies the impact of a regional free trade agreement, MERCOSUR, on technologyupgrading by Argentinean firms. To guide empirical work, I introduce technology choice inMelitz s (2003) model of trade with heterogeneous firms. The joint treatment of the technologyadoption and exporting choices shows that the increase in revenues produced by trade integrationcan induce exporters to upgrade technology. An empirical test of the model reveals that firms inindustries facing higher reductions in Brazil s tariffs increase their investment in technologyfaster. The effect of tariffs on entry in the export market and technology adoption is highest inthe upper-middle range of the firm size distribution, as predicted by the model.

The dot-com bubble, the Bush deficits and the US current account

Over the past decade the US has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming US stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing US government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is thatstock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. We challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the dot-com bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the Bush deficits). The benevolent view holds that a change in investorsentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The cynical view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. We discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the US economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position.

The overhang hangover

We revisit the debt overhang question. We first use non-parametric techniques to isolate a panel of countries on the downward sloping section of a debt Laffer curve. In particular, overhang countries are ones where a threshold level of debt is reached in sample, beyond which (initial) debt ends up lowering (subsequent)growth. On average, significantly negative coefficients appear when debt face value reaches 60 percent of GDP or 200 percent of exports, and when its present value reaches 40 percent of GDP or 140 percent of exports. Second, we depart from reduced form growth regressions and perform direct tests of the theory on the thus selected sample of overhang countries. In the spirit of event studies, we ask whether, as overhang level of debt is reached: (i)investment falls precipitously as it should when it becomes optimal to default, (ii) economic policy deteriorates observably, as it should when debt contracts become unable to elicit effort on the part of the debtor, and (iii) the terms of borrowing worsen noticeably, as they should when it becomes optimal for creditors to pre-empt default and exact punitive interest rates. We find a systematic response of investment, particularly when property rights are weakly enforced, some worsening of the policy environment, and a fall in interest rates. This easing of borrowing conditions happens because lending by the private sector virtually disappears in overhang situations, and multilateral agencies step in with concessional rates. Thus, while debt relief is likely to improve economic policy (and especially investment) in overhang countries, it is doubtful that it would ease their terms of borrowing, or the burden of debt.

The Handheld Library: Developments at the Rector Gabriel Ferraté Library, UPC

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the mobile services developed by the Rector Gabriel Ferraté Library (BRGF) of the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC Barcelona Tech) in Barcelona, Spain.We hope this paper will be of use to other libraries exploring new technologies for communicating and delivering their services to users at a time when mobile services are an emerging topic in librarianship and information science literature. By setting out the successive steps involved in the as yet unfinished process of building our mobile services portfolio, we aim to offer a detailed picture of the mobile services and features offered by a university library from a case study perspective.The main topics to be discussed include:- The BRGF’s mobile website, including the information available, its interactivecapabilities and the services it provides to its users.- The mobile-friendly version of UPCommons (the UPC Library Service’s institutionalrepositories).- The UPC Library Service’s mobile OPAC.- The mobile version of u-win (BRGF’s videogame service).- The use of QR codes to deliver information to mobile devices.- Text message notifications.Additional topics for discussion include:- The library’s organisation and the organisational concepts that underpin andmake possible its technological developments (including mobile).- BRGF’s concern regarding the reduction of investment in the development of mobile services.- The criteria and tools used to guide the library’s decisions regarding thedesign and orientation of current and future mobile services.- How mobile services can help to improve the image of the library as a leadingtechnology site.- Selected mobile features that BRGF plans to offer in the near future.Ultimately, this paper aims to delineate the effectiveness and potential of deliveringlibrary services by the preferred means of communication of a new generation of studentsand teachers.

Els Factors competitius de les pimes a Catalunya

El principal objectiu d'aquest estudi és reflectir quins són els principals factors competitius per a les pymes a Catalunya. Per això, es va escollir una mostra de 1000 empreses de diferents sectors i amb els límits que marca la Unió Europea per a definir una pyme. A partir d'aquí, es va analitzar la informació financera. Amb aquesta font d'informació, es va poder arribar a la conclusió que tots aquells aspectes relacionats amb el personal i reflectits a través de ràtios, eren els més significatius estadísticament per a poder explicar la rendibilitat en les empreses. També es va enviar un qüestionari a la mostra esmentada i es va preguntar el punt de vista del gestor o empresari. Només 50 empreses van contestar, i una vegada més, el factor humà es va revelar com el més important. S'ha d'assenyalar que altres elements tals com la inversió en tecnologia, que s'esperava fossin significatius, no van donar els resultats esperats en el sentit que cap altre fos considerat tan rellevant com els recursos humans.

Els Factors competitius de les pimes a Catalunya

El principal objectiu d'aquest estudi és reflectir quins són els principals factors competitius per a les pymes a Catalunya. Per això, es va escollir una mostra de 1000 empreses de diferents sectors i amb els límits que marca la Unió Europea per a definir una pyme. A partir d'aquí, es va analitzar la informació financera. Amb aquesta font d'informació, es va poder arribar a la conclusió que tots aquells aspectes relacionats amb el personal i reflectits a través de ràtios, eren els més significatius estadísticament per a poder explicar la rendibilitat en les empreses. També es va enviar un qüestionari a la mostra esmentada i es va preguntar el punt de vista del gestor o empresari. Només 50 empreses van contestar, i una vegada més, el factor humà es va revelar com el més important. S'ha d'assenyalar que altres elements tals com la inversió en tecnologia, que s'esperava fossin significatius, no van donar els resultats esperats en el sentit que cap altre fos considerat tan rellevant com els recursos humans.

Infraestructuras y desarrollo económico en el Pirineo Central (1850-2000)

This paper is aimed at describing the impact of infrastructure on the economic evolution of Central Pyrenees (i.e., Huesca and the Catalan"Alt Pirineu"). The text analyses if investment in railways, roads and dams favoured economic development or, on the contrary, was just an instrument to extract domestic resources. The paper distinguishes among three different periods. Firstly, during the second half of the nineteenth century and the first few years of the twentieth century, the lack of railway connections prevented the economic development of the area. Secondly, between the first decades of the twentieth century and 1975, a road network was set up that reinforced the economic decadence of the most depressed valleys, and the construction of large dams was a powerful factor of depopulation all over the region. Finally, from 1975 onwards, some trends may be observed towards the correction of the previous policies.

The Evolution of the European Regulatory Framework for Electronic Communications

The paper reviews the historical transformation of the European regulatory framework for electronic communications from the era dominated by state-owned enterprises to the presence of regulated competition. In the course of these developments, the vision of the roles of the public and private sectors in electronic communications changed in expected and unexpected ways. While the period is characterized by a shift toward less direct state intervention, the intensity of regulation has increased in many areas. Most recently, in the wake of the financial crisis, new forms of state intervention can be observed, including public investment in communications infrastructure and public-private partnerships. As a result of the reforms, Europe has been able to achieve major successes but it also suffered unanticipated setbacks compared to other regions. The European Union emerged as the global leader in mobile communications during the 1990s and was able to roll-out first-generation broadband access networks more rapidly than many of its peers. Recently, however, Europe as a whole has not performed as well in deploying next-generation networks and advanced mobile communications services. The paper offers a political-economic explanation for these developments and assesses their effects on the performance of the European electronic communications sector and the economy. From this analysis, the European model emerges as a unique institutional arrangement with peculiar advantages and disadvantages. Once these are recognized, sensible next steps to build the strengths while avoiding the weaknesses of the model can be seen more clearly.

Vertical relations and local competition : an empirical approach

The analysis of vertical industry relations forms an essential element in the field of industrial organization. This paper tests hypotheses derived from transaction cost theory and the principal-agent problem in Chile’s petrol market. It shows that local competition plays an important role in the choice of a disintegrated vertical structure, and that low levels of service investment have the same effect. Conversely, the number of own-brand outlets and a high level of investment in services reduce the probability of disintegration. The paper demonstrates that vertical disintegration has a null effect on wholesale petrol prices and a positive effect on retail petrol prices of between 1.6 and 7 per cent, depending on fuel type.

Do innovation and human capital explain the productivity gap between small and large firms?

Empirical evidence is compelling that large firms are more productive than small firms. The hypothesis in this paper is that the productivity differences between small and large firms are associated with two of the main determinants of a firm’s performance: the human and technological capital that firms incorporate. We suggest that the contribution of these factors in explaining the productivity-size gap might not only be due to the fact that large firms make a more extensive use of them, but also because large firms obtain higher returns from their investment in human and technological capital. The evidence we obtain for a comprehensive sample of Spanish manufacturing firms (1990-2002) supports this hypothesis, which has important implications for the effectiveness of policies designed to improve productivity in SMEs by stimulating innovation and the use of more skilled workers.

Regional returns to physical capital: are they conditioned by educational attainment?

This paper provides novel empirical evidence of the indirect effect of educational attainment on regional economic growth, through its influence on the profitability of investment in physical capital. We test the hypothesis that the regional heterogeneity of the return to physical capital can be directly related to the existing heterogeneity in the educational attainment of workers. The results for the Spanish case support our hypothesis that the higher the educational attainment of workers the greater the returns on investment in physical capital. In fact, this effect seems to be sufficiently strong to have counterbalanced the traditional mechanism of decreasing returns to capital accumulation.

Productivity, Technical eficiency and internationalisation of the Spanish chemical sector

relationship between productivity and international position of Spanish chemical firms in the period 2005-2011. The goal is to determine whether companies that follow and international strategy, either with exports or by investment in foreign countries obtain greater productivity growth than these that do not operate in global market. For this purpose a panel data set with microdata has been created. A preliminary analysis of the evolution of productivity growth in the sector is carried out. The measurement of Total Factor Productivity is performed. With the estimated TFP we analyze the differentials in productivity growth, comparing the effects of export and investment behavior with non-international firms.