The credit ratings game

The spectacular failure of top-rated structured finance products has broughtrenewed attention to the conflicts of interest of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs). We modelboth the CRA conflict of understating credit risk to attract more business, and the issuerconflict of purchasing only the most favorable ratings (issuer shopping), and examine theeffectiveness of a number of proposed regulatory solutions of CRAs. We find that CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings when there is a larger fraction of naive investors in the marketwho take ratings at face value, or when CRA expected reputation costs are lower. To theextent that in booms the fraction of naive investors is higher, and the reputation risk forCRAs of getting caught understating credit risk is lower, our model predicts that CRAs aremore likely to understate credit risk in booms than in recessions. We also show that, due toissuer shopping, competition among CRAs in a duopoly is less efficient (conditional on thesame equilibrium CRA rating policy) than having a monopoly CRA, in terms of both totalex-ante surplus and investor surplus. Allowing tranching decreases total surplus further.We argue that regulatory intervention requiring upfront payments for rating services (beforeCRAs propose a rating to the issuer) combined with mandatory disclosure of any ratingproduced by CRAs can substantially mitigate the con.icts of interest of both CRAs andissuers.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

This paper tests for the market environment within which US fiscal policyoperates, that is we test for the incompleteness of the US government bondmarket. We document the stochastic properties of US debt and deficits andthen consider the ability of competing optimal tax models to account forthis behaviour. We show that when a government pursues an optimal taxpolicy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debthas the same or less persistence than other variables in the economyand declines in response to higher deficit shocks. By contrast, ifgovernments only issue one-period risk free bonds (incomplete markets),debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases inresponse to expenditure shocks. Maintaining the hypothesis of Ramseybehavior, US data conflicts.

The economic tragedy of the XXth Century: Growth in Africa

The dismal growth performance of Africa is the worst economic tragedy ofthe XXth century. We document the evolution of per capita GDP for thecontinent as a whole and for subset of countries south of the Saharadesert. We document the worsening of various income inequality indexesand we estimate poverty rates and headcounts. We then analyze some ofthe central robust determinants of economic growth reported bySala-i-Martin, Doppelhofer and Miller (2003) and project the annual growthrates Africa would have enjoyed if these key determinants had taken OECDrather than African values. Expensive investment goods, low levels ofeducation, poor health, adverse geography, closed economies, too muchpublic expenditure and too many military conflicts are seen as keyexplanations of the economic tragedy.

The credit ratings game

The collapse of so many AAA-rated structured finance products in 2007-2008has brought renewed attention to the causes of ratings failures and the conflicts of interestin the Credit Ratings Industry. We provide a model of competition among Credit RatingsAgencies (CRAs) in which there are three possible sources of conflicts: 1) the CRA conflictof interest of understating credit risk to attract more business; 2) the ability of issuersto purchase only the most favorable ratings; and 3) the trusting nature of some investorclienteles who may take ratings at face value. We show that when combined, these give riseto three fundamental equilibrium distortions. First, competition among CRAs can reducemarket efficiency, as competition facilitates ratings shopping by issuers. Second, CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings in boom times, when there are more trusting investors, andwhen the risks of failure which could damage CRA reputation are lower. Third, the industrypractice of tranching of structured products distorts market efficiency as its role is to deceivetrusting investors. We argue that regulatory intervention requiring: i) upfront paymentsfor rating services (before CRAs propose a rating to the issuer), ii) mandatory disclosure ofany rating produced by CRAs, and iii) oversight of ratings methodology can substantiallymitigate ratings inflation and promote efficiency.

Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.

L' Impacte de la mort en estudiants d'infermeria durant el seu primer període de pràctiques

La mort i el procés de morir són fets quotidians en les persones grans i, conseqüentment, en els centres sociosanitaris, on bona part de les persones usuàries són d’edat avançada. Tot i que es tracta d’un fenomen natural que s’inclou dins del cicle vital de les persones, en la nostra societat la mort encara provoca rebuig, por, ansietat, tristesa i inquietud. En aquest marc, les estudiants1 d’infermeria són un col·lectiu que poden patir especialment l’impacte de la mort. Primer, perquè com a membres de la societat tenen interioritzat el codi social preestablert envers aquest tema i, segon, perquè durant la seva formació estan en contacte amb persones que estan al final de la vida i poden presenciar vivències de mort. En el primer període de pràctiques dels estudis d’infermeria, les estudiants han de fer front a diverses situacions del dia a dia fins aleshores desconegudes. Els conflictes interpersonals amb l'equip de treball i la inseguretat sobre les habilitats i les competències professionals són alguns dels aspectes que acostumen a viure amb més tensió. Tot i això, el que més impacte els provoca és la cura de les persones al final de la vida. Davant d'una situació de tensió, la persona viu un component estressor, que suposa el punt d’inflexió. A partir d’aquí s’activen els components adaptatius, que és el que emocionalment fa que la persona pugui fer front a aquesta situació estressant. A més, hi ha un component de suport, que són les ajudes que té. Segons com es treballi el component adaptatiu farà que la persona reaccioni en un futur de forma més automàtica i inconscient o, al contrari, que la persona respongui de forma més conscient i intencionada. El present treball està concebut per comprendre quins elements psicosocials – components estressors i components de suport– poden afectar a les estudiants que presencien la vivència de la mort de malalts geriàtrics terminals en el primer període de pràctiques en un centre sociosanitari. S’ha dissenyat un estudi descriptiu transversal quantitatiu, de caràcter exploratori, per tal de descriure la freqüència i algunes característiques psicosocials al voltant de la mort en estudiants d'infermeria en el seu primer període de pràctiques, tant a nivell personal com a nivell professional. La mostra de l'estudi són 65 estudiants, la majoria són dones d'entre els 18 i els 29 anys –més d’un 90%–. Els resultats indiquen que un 80% dels futurs professionals estudiats han patit la mort d’alguna persona significativa al llarg de la seva vida; d'aquests, gairebé un de cada quatre presenta dol complicat. Quant a la vivència de mort en les pràctiques, el 83% l'ha experimentat. Tot i aquest elevat percentatge, no totes les experiències tenen una connotació negativa. En prop de la meitat dels casos, les morts són percebudes com una experiència enriquidora i natural. Els components estressors més impactants que les estudiants han viscut durant les pràctiques per la mort d’alguna persona malalta són: la reacció de la família del finat, el patiment que es genera al seu voltant, algun signe o símptoma físic experimentat pel malalt al final del procés, i la pròpia reacció emocional. Els components de suport expressats són: saber gestionar les pròpies emocions, tenir més formació sobre relació d’ ajuda i empatia, tenir més formació en control de símptomes i comunicació, per atendre usuaris –tant malalts com familiars- i que algú els informés i orientés en el procés. Altres resultats a tenir en compte són que la població estudiada té més preocupació o inquietud per la mort i el procés de morir de la persona estimada i menys per la pròpia mort. A més, tot i que la meitat no hagués escollit geriatria com opció a les primeres pràctiques clíniques, gairebé tot el grup estudiat ho recomanaria després d'haver viscut l'experiència. Les implicacions pràctiques d'aquest estudi porten a pensar que es pot reorientar la informació i preparació que es dóna a les estudiants d’infermeria abans del primer contacte amb la realitat dels centres sociosanitaris, així com també el paper de formació i suport que pot fer tant la persona tutora de pràctiques com les infermeres de referència dels diferents centres. En conclusió, caldria dissenyar estratègies formatives i de suport entorn a la preparació psicològica personal de l’estudiant; entorn a l’acompanyament, les cures pal·liatives i el dol; i valorar la seva eficiència en el futur.

Conflictes ètics en la gestió de la informació: una mirada des de la deontologia professional

[eng] The text begins with a reflection on the scope and content of the concepts "ethics" and "deontology" and continues by addressing the steps and considerations that the professional community must take into account when analysing ethical and moral aspects of their work. Finally, some specific elements are set forth regarding ethics in information management, specifically ethical conflicts that need to be managed in the area of library and information sciences.

Contenciones mecánicas en geriatría: propuestas técnicas y recomendaciones de uso en el ámbito social

The bibliographical revision of national gerontological literature reveals some confusion in the use of terms that refer to mechanical contentions, lack of dialogue with regards to ethical conflicts that suggest their use, a significant generalization of the claims against and the absence of positive references despite its high prevalence as shown by some authors. This paper presents some technical proposals on the definition, the use of terms and the use of mechanical contentions in the social sphere such as putting the ethical dialogue before the argumentation based on the prevalence, define them in terms of their intent, agree on a classification of the different contention methods, identify the types and levels of risk and intervene specifically and in terms thereof. Finally, recommendations are added with regards to risks, the decision process, prescription and the withdrawal process.

¿Una xarxa global de moviments socials? Una aproximació al cicle de protestes 2011-2013

Les protestes socials esdevingudes en nombrosos països durant els últims tres anys –des de Tunísia i l’anomenada “Primavera àrab” fins a les recents mobilitzacions a Turquia o Brasil– han fet aflorar un debat sobre la possible dimensió global i transestatal de totes elles. El present article pretén realitzar una aproximació descriptiva i analítica a aquest intens cicle de protestes, reflexionant sobre les diferències i similituds existents entre elles, el paper que Internet i les xarxes socials han tingut en el curs de les diferents mobilitzacions o, entre altres aspectes, el repertori d’accions que han emprat. Més enllà d’aquests trets compartits o no, l’article mira d’emfasitzar la importància d’entendre aquest cicle de mobilitzacions com un procés de repolitització social que combina les contradiccions i conflictes locals de cada context en particular amb l’aparent existència d’una demanda global per major democratització política, regeneració institucional, justícia social i reapropiació d’allò comú.

Cobertura y desamparo: garantías jurídicas de los españoles en el Perú (1870-1945) = Coverage and helplessness: legal guarantees of the spanish in Peru (1870-1945)

The archives of the Prefecture of the Peruvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs provide a perspective from which to reconstruct the broad range of legal circumstances in which Spanish residents in various regions of the country find themselves immersed (assets of relatives who have died without wills or family in Peru, political conflicts, legal problems -whether criminal or civil as a result of business activities- or the requested intervention ofconsular authorities when decisions considered detrimental to their compatriots are made by prefects and sub-prefects). The legal framework protecting Spanish nationals in Peru is analysed to understand the mechanisms of immigration in the country and the mechanisms that led them to keep their Spanish nationality, even after establishing wide-reaching family and business interests

La escenificación del poder: el marqués de Castelldosrius, primer virrey Borbón del Perú (1707-1710)

The change in dynasty brought with it a series of transformations to Peruvian viceroyalty political culture. Analysis is made of the government of the Marquis of Castelldosrius (1707-1710) who, in his eagerness to increase a meagre patrimony, was to attenuate his conflicts with the Creole sectors and the Consulate, with a style of politics that was characterised by courtly and cultural uses that included traditions that were in vogue in the courts of Louis XIV and in his native Catalonia

Efficacy of a dilemma-focused intervention for unipolar depression: study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial

Background Depression is one of the more severe and serious health problems because of its morbidity, disabling effects and for its societal and economic burden. Despite the variety of existing pharmacological and psychological treatments, most of the cases evolve with only partial remission, relapse and recurrence. Cognitive models have contributed significantly to the understanding of unipolar depression and its psychological treatment. However, success is only partial and many authors affirm the need to improve those models and also the treatment programs derived from them. One of the issues that requires further elaboration is the difficulty these patients experience in responding to treatment and in maintaining therapeutic gains across time without relapse or recurrence. Our research group has been working on the notion of cognitive conflict viewed as personal dilemmas according to personal construct theory. We use a novel method for identifying those conflicts using the repertory grid technique (RGT). Preliminary results with depressive patients show that about 90% of them have one or more of those conflicts. This fact might explain the blockage and the difficult progress of these patients, especially the more severe and/or chronic. These results justify the need for specific interventions focused on the resolution of these internal conflicts. This study aims to empirically test the hypothesis that an intervention focused on the dilemma(s) specifically detected for each patient will enhance the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. Design A therapy manual for a dilemma-focused intervention will be tested using a randomized clinical trial by comparing the outcome of two treatment conditions: combined group CBT (eight, 2-hour weekly sessions) plus individual dilemma-focused therapy (eight, 1-hour weekly sessions) and CBT alone (eight, 2-hour group weekly sessions plus eight, 1-hour individual weekly sessions). Method Participants are patients aged over 18 years meeting diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder or dysthymic disorder, with a score of 19 or above on the Beck depression inventory, second edition (BDI-II) and presenting at least one cognitive conflict (implicative dilemma or dilemmatic construct) as assessed using the RGT. The BDI-II is the primary outcome measure, collected at baseline, at the end of therapy, and at 3- and 12-month follow-up; other secondary measures are also used. Discussion We expect that adding a dilemma-focused intervention to CBT will increase the efficacy of one of the more prestigious therapies for depression, thus resulting in a significant contribution to the psychological treatment of depression. Trial registration ISRCTN92443999; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01542957.

Development process and initial validation of the ethical conflict in nursing questionnaire-critical care version

Background: Ethical conflicts are arising as a result of the growing complexity of clinical care, coupled with technological advances. Most studies that have developed instruments for measuring ethical conflict base their measures on the variables"frequency" and"degree of conflict". In our view, however, these variables are insufficient for explaining the root of ethical conflicts. Consequently, the present study formulates a conceptual model that also includes the variable"exposure to conflict", as well as considering six"types of ethical conflict". An instrument was then designed to measure the ethical conflicts experienced by nurses who work with critical care patients. The paper describes the development process and validation of this instrument, the Ethical Conflict in Nursing Questionnaire Critical Care Version (ECNQ-CCV). Methods: The sample comprised 205 nursing professionals from the critical care units of two hospitals in Barcelona (Spain). The ECNQ-CCV presents 19 nursing scenarios with the potential to produce ethical conflict in the critical care setting. Exposure to ethical conflict was assessed by means of the Index of Exposure to Ethical Conflict (IEEC), a specific index developed to provide a reference value for each respondent by combining the intensity and frequency of occurrence of each scenario featured in the ECNQ-CCV. Following content validity, construct validity was assessed by means of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), while Cronbach"s alpha was used to evaluate the instrument"s reliability. All analyses were performed using the statistical software PASW v19. Results: Cronbach"s alpha for the ECNQ-CCV as a whole was 0.882, which is higher than the values reported for certain other related instruments. The EFA suggested a unidimensional structure, with one component accounting for 33.41% of the explained variance. Conclusions: The ECNQ-CCV is shown to a valid and reliable instrument for use in critical care units. Its structure is such that the four variables on which our model of ethical conflict is based may be studied separately or in combination. The critical care nurses in this sample present moderate levels of exposure to ethical conflict. This study represents the first evaluation of the ECNQ-CCV.

Development process and initial validation of the ethical conflict in nursing questionnaire-critical care version

Background: Ethical conflicts are arising as a result of the growing complexity of clinical care, coupled with technological advances. Most studies that have developed instruments for measuring ethical conflict base their measures on the variables"frequency" and"degree of conflict". In our view, however, these variables are insufficient for explaining the root of ethical conflicts. Consequently, the present study formulates a conceptual model that also includes the variable"exposure to conflict", as well as considering six"types of ethical conflict". An instrument was then designed to measure the ethical conflicts experienced by nurses who work with critical care patients. The paper describes the development process and validation of this instrument, the Ethical Conflict in Nursing Questionnaire Critical Care Version (ECNQ-CCV). Methods: The sample comprised 205 nursing professionals from the critical care units of two hospitals in Barcelona (Spain). The ECNQ-CCV presents 19 nursing scenarios with the potential to produce ethical conflict in the critical care setting. Exposure to ethical conflict was assessed by means of the Index of Exposure to Ethical Conflict (IEEC), a specific index developed to provide a reference value for each respondent by combining the intensity and frequency of occurrence of each scenario featured in the ECNQ-CCV. Following content validity, construct validity was assessed by means of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), while Cronbach"s alpha was used to evaluate the instrument"s reliability. All analyses were performed using the statistical software PASW v19. Results: Cronbach"s alpha for the ECNQ-CCV as a whole was 0.882, which is higher than the values reported for certain other related instruments. The EFA suggested a unidimensional structure, with one component accounting for 33.41% of the explained variance. Conclusions: The ECNQ-CCV is shown to a valid and reliable instrument for use in critical care units. Its structure is such that the four variables on which our model of ethical conflict is based may be studied separately or in combination. The critical care nurses in this sample present moderate levels of exposure to ethical conflict. This study represents the first evaluation of the ECNQ-CCV.

Experiencias de la participación militar española en misiones internacionales (2000-2012)

Este estudio sobre las Fuerzas Armadas españolas aborda, mediante un centenar de entrevistas en profundidad, el análisis de las experiencias vividas en operaciones internacionales. Con ello se ha analizado el contacto con otros actores, su acomodo y comprensión de las normas de enfrentamiento, sus motivaciones, impresiones y experiencias, los rendimientos personales y grupales, el grado de cumplimiento de los objetivos de la misión y los problemas familiares y psicológicos que puedan haber generado la participación en una misión de este tipo. El resultado de este estudio de caso se integra en un estudio internacional comparado denominado Lessons Learned on Asymmmetric Warfare y auspiciado por el RC nº1 de ISA y el Working Group Military Profession de ERGOMAS.