Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks ( crises ) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) the most important one shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

Post crisis challenges to bank regulation

The current crisis has swept aside not only the whole of the US investment banking industry butalso the consensual perception of banking risks, contagion and their implication for bankingregulation. As everyone agrees now, risks where mispriced, they accumulated in neuralgic pointsof the financial system, and where amplified by procyclical regulation as well as by the instabilityand fragility of financial institutions.The use of ratings as carved in stone and lack of adequate procedure to swiftly deal withsystemic institutions bankruptcy (whether too-big-to-fail, too complex to fail or too-many to fail).The current paper will not deal with the description and analysis of the crisis, already covered inother contributions to this issue will address the critical choice regulatory authorities will face. Inthe future regulation has to change, but it is not clear that it will change in the right direction. Thismay occur if regulatory authorities, possibly influenced by public opinion and political pressure,adopt an incorrect view of financial crisis prevention and management. Indeed, there are twoapproaches to post-crisis regulation. One is the rare event approach, whereby financial crises willoccur infrequently, but are inescapable.

Banks, government bonds, and default: what do the data say?

We use data from Bankscope to analyze the holdings of public bonds by over 18,000 banks located in 185 countries and the role of these bonds in 18 sovereign debt crises over the period 1998-2012. We find that: (i) banks hold a sizeable share of their assets in government bonds (about 9% on average), particularly in less financially developed countries; (ii) during sovereign crises, banks on average increase their bondholdings by 1% of their assets, but this increase is concentrated among larger and more profitable banks, and; (iii) the correlation between a bank's holdings of public bonds and its future loans is positive in normal times, but turns negative during defaults. A 10% increase in bank bond-holdings during default is associated with a 3.2% reduction in future loans, and bonds bought in normal times account for 75% of this effect. Our results are consistent with the view that there is a liquidity benefit for banks to hold public bonds in normal times, which is critical for understanding bank fragility during sovereign crises.

Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects

In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and lowspreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising theirdeficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,surprisingly, so did the share of the debt held by domestic creditors. Credit was reallocatedfrom the private to the public sectors, reducing investment and deepening the recessions evenfurther. To account for these facts, we propose a simple model of sovereign risk in which debtcan be traded in secondary markets. The model has two key ingredients: creditor discriminationand crowding-out effects. Creditor discrimination arises because, in turbulent times, sovereigndebt offers a higher expected return to domestic creditors than to foreign ones. This providesincentives for domestic purchases of debt. Crowding-out effects arise because private borrowingis limited by financial frictions. This implies that domestic debt purchases displace productiveinvestment. The model shows that these purchases reduce growth and welfare, and may lead toself-fulfilling crises. It also shows how crowding-out effects can be transmitted to other countriesin the Eurozone, and how they may be addressed by policies at the European level.

Journalistic practice in risk and crisis situations: Significant examples from Spain

In a democratic society, the media are central to the communication of risks and uncertainties to the public. This article presents 10 proposals for improving media coverage in social risk situations. The article focuses on the production logic of the media and its consequences for society. The proposals and the conclusions of this research are supported by an analysis of three Spanish cases: the risk implied by the Tarragona chemical complex (one of the biggest in Europe); the terrorist attacks on 11 March 2004 in Madrid; and the Carmel tunnel disaster in Barcelona on January 2005. The authors are participating in a research project on public perception of risk funded by the Spanish Education Ministry on public perception of risk (2004–2007 and 2007–2010).

Observation of a continuous interior crisis in the Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model.

Interior crises are understood as discontinuous changes of the size of a chaotic attractor that occur when an unstable periodic orbit collides with the chaotic attractor. We present here numerical evidence and theoretical reasoning which prove the existence of a chaos-chaos transition in which the change of the attractor size is sudden but continuous. This occurs in the Hindmarsh¿Rose model of a neuron, at the transition point between the bursting and spiking dynamics, which are two different dynamic behaviors that this system is able to present. Moreover, besides the change in attractor size, other significant properties of the system undergoing the transitions do change in a relevant qualitative way. The mechanism for such transition is understood in terms of a simple one-dimensional map whose dynamics undergoes a crossover between two different universal behaviors

Políticas públicas y sustentabilidad en las zonas desfavorecidas y de montaña en España

El presente trabajo aborda una visión global de la acción pública en los espacios que, en principio, han sido oficial o/y institucionalmente definidos como zonas desfavorecidas o zonas de montaña en España. Territorios, básicamente rurales, que en España muestran un notable grado de heterogeneidad en cuanto a sus estructuras económicas, sociales y culturales, además de caracterizarse por unas estructuras ecológicas igualmente dispares. Esta realidad poliédrica en los últimos años se está viendo condicionada por cuatro factores: las transformaciones internas del sector agroalimentario; los cambios en la organización espacial de la actividad y de la población que son consecuencia de la reestructuración del capitalismo; por las nuevas funciones socioeconómicas, socioculturales y medioambientales que desempeñan estos espacios; y, por el impacto, a veces contradictorio, de las diversas políticas que se implementan sobre ellos, y que se desenvuelven, cada vez más nítidamente, bajo el paradigma del desarrollo sostenible institucional.

Análisis empresarial de las cooperativas del sector de la fruta dulce en Cataluña

El cooperativismo agrario ha estado ligado desde sus orígenes al sector de las frutas y hortalizas, sector que arrastra desde hace años una problemática de carácter estructural, incrementada, sobretodo en el caso de la fruta, por las graves crisis de precios, la saturación de los mercados y una competencia creciente de las importaciones de terceros países. En este difícil marco, los productores deben seguir invirtiendo para mantener la competitividad y la rentabilidad de sus explotaciones, y las cooperativas, por su importancia económica, deben acometer políticas que permitan garantizar la viabilidad de dicho sector. En el presente trabajo realizamos un análisis del sector cooperativo frutícola catalán, con el fin de detectar sus puntos fuertes y débiles, así como posibles carencias y demandas. Las conclusiones muestran que las cooperativas son importantes en el sector de la fruticultura, debido sobretodo a su contribución activa a la conservación del territorio y su papel generador de empleo en numerosas zonas rurales. Pero se hace necesario la adopción de firmes decisiones y la implantación de medidas de apoyo que permitan garantizar los intereses de los socios y las necesidades de los consumidores.

¿De campesino a agricultor? La pequeña producción familiar en el marco del desarrollo capitalista

En este trabajo se repasan algunas de las principales conceptualizaciones que los "estudios campesinos" han elaborado sobre el mundo rural y se señalan las limitaciones del propio concepto del papel y las expectativas que la agricultura familiar tiene dentro del capitalismo avanzado. Se hace hincapié en los factores causales de su pervivencia y de las estrategias adaptativas desarrolladas por las unidades de producción domésticas.

"Et hoc facimus propter necessitatem famis...". Possibilitats de les fonts documentals catalanes per a l'estudi de les crisis alimentàries dels segles X-XIII

European studies of famines before the thirteenth century have been based principally on chronicles and especially on information from monastic annals. These sources, which are especially numerous during the so-called Carolingian Cultural Renaissance, offer abundant evidence of a phenomenon scarcely mentioned in other types of sources, including archival sources: the frequency and gravity of crises of food supply in some regions of continental Europe during the central middle ages, an epoch which, being situated between the terrible famines of the carolingian period and the great panademics of the fourteenth century, has been considered a period “without famines.” The object of this article is to shed light on the limitations of medieval catalan chronicle sources for the reconstruction of food-supply crises which affected the catalan counties in the tenth through the thirteenth centuries and illustrate, in contrast, the multiple opportunities offered by sources from the lordly archives. A significant part of these archival sources are connected in a direct and indirect manner to the difficulties of the rural and urban populations during famines and therefore, in a broad sense, can be considered a consequence of these crises.

De la guerra de l'Empordà (1128) a la mortaldat de 1131: gènesi, extensió i extinció d'una fam. Per a una història de les crisis alimentàries a la Catalunya medieval

In the history of food shortages and subsistence crises which affected the Catalan counties during the eleventh and twelfth centuries, the famine of 1129-1131 deserves special mention. Originating in the war of 1128 involving the Empordà and neighboring counties, this famine affected the city of Barcelona and other points of Catalonia (Winter, 1131) and created conditions for the spread of a deadly epidemic (July 1130 -January 1132).

Systematics and phylogeography of the Dysdera erythrina species complex (Araneae, Dysderidae) in Sardinia

Sardinia is the second largest island in the Mediterranean and, together with Corsica and nearby mainland areas, one of the top biodiversity hotspots in the region. The origin of Sardinia traces back to the opening of the western Mediterranean in the late Oligocene. This geological event and the subsequent Messinian Salinity Crisis and Pleistocene glacial cycles have had a major impact on local biodiversity. The Dysdera woodlouse hunter spiders are one of the most diverse ground-dweller groups in the Mediterranean. Here we describe the first two species of this genus endemic to Sardinia: Dysdera jana sp. n. and Dysdera shardana sp. n. The two species show contrasting allopatric distribution: D. jana sp. n. is a narrow endemic while D. shardana sp. n. is distributed throughout most of the island. A multi-gene DNA sequence phylogenetic analys based on mitochondrial and nuclear genes supports the close relationships of the new species to the type species of the genus Dysdera erythrina. Age estimates reject Oligocene origin of the new Dysdera species and identify the Messinian Salinity Crises as the most plausible period for the split between Sardinian endemics and their closest relatives. Phylogeographic analysis reveals deep genetic divergences and population structure in Dysdera shardana sp. n., suggesting that restriction to gene flow probably due to environmental factors could explain local speciation events. Taxonomy, phylogeny, DNA sequencing, Mediterranean biogeography, phylogeography