Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Playing cat and mouse : consumer empowerment and marketing interaction on the net

Peer-reviewed

The use of non-animal alternatives in the safety evaluations of cosmetics ingredients by the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS)

In Europe, the safety evaluation of cosmetics is based on the safety evaluation of each individual ingredient. Article 3 of the Cosmetics Regulation specifies that a cosmetic product made available on the market is to be safe for human health when used normally or under reasonably foreseeable conditions. For substances that cause some concern with respect to human health (e.g. colorants, preservatives, UV-filters), safety is evaluated at the Commission level by a scientific committee, presently called the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS). According to the Cosmetics Regulations, in the EU, the marketing of cosmetics products and their ingredients that have been tested on animals for most of their human health effects, including acute toxicity, is prohibited. Nevertheless, any study dating from before this prohibition took effect is accepted for the safety assessment of cosmetics ingredients. The in vitro methods reported in the dossiers summited to the SCCS are here evaluated from the published reports issued by the scientific committee of the Directorate General of Health and Consumers (DG SANCO); responsible for the safety of cosmetics ingredients. The number of studies submitted to the SCCS that do not involve animals is still low and in general the safety of cosmetics ingredients is based on in vivo studies performed before the prohibition.

Reparar y sustituir cosas en la compraventa : evolución y últimas tendencias

International texts recognise the buyer's right to the repair or replacement if the goods do not conform with the contract, and at the same time, establish exceptions to their application and certain rules of protection for the seller (Art. 46 CISG, Art. 7.2.3 UNIDROIT Principles of International Commercial Contracts, Art.9:102 PECL and Arts. 4:202 y 4:204 (1) PEL S). This approach is a result of a compromise between civil law systems and the common law and it has been widely extended to the regulation of consumer sales over the last decade (Art. 3.3 of the Directive 1999/44/CE, Art. III.-3:302 DCFR, Art. 26 of the proposal for a Directive on Consumer Rights). These norms regulate the different ways of requiring the fulfilment of a contractual obligation from a new paradigm which has little to do with a need to protect the weak consumer which governed the origins of consumer policy in the European Community. Now the idea of the consumer who shall behave economically efficiently prevails in Art. 3.3 of the Directive 1999/44/CE, a norm which is clearly influenced by the international texts and whose transposing into the national legislation of Member States has created important problems for traditional dogmas. In this sense there are still some unclear issues, such as the possibility of replacing in sales of goods of specific nature or second-hand goods, some aspects on the exercise of repair and replacement, and, even, their use as primary remedies rather than a reduction in price or a rescission of the contract. With regard to this, in England the possibility of offering the consumer free choice between these measures if the goods do not conform with the contract has been raised. This is far from the principle of pacta sunt servanda and is clearly contrary to the economic approach of the proposal for a Directive on Consumer Rights. Up to now Spain has limited itself to implementing Art. 3.3 Directive 1999/44/CE into its legal system in almost literal terms and the case law on the issue has completely turned out to be insufficient. By contrast with Germany, the Spanish legislator has not extended the application of the rules of repair and replacement of Directive 1999/44/CE to nonconsumer sales, even though two draft bill proposals along these lines presented by the General Commission for Codifying (“Comisión General de Codificación”), the last one being in January, 2009

Energy intensity in road freight transport of heavy goods vehicles in Spain

This paper examines the factors that have influenced the energy intensity of the Spanish road freight transport of heavy goods vehicles over the period 1996–2012. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of the factors behind the energy intensity change of road freight and also to inform the design of measures to improve energy efficiency in road freight transport. The paper uses both annual single-period and chained multi-period multiplicative LMDI-II decomposition analysis. The results suggest that the decrease in the energy intensity of Spanish road freight in the period is explained by the change in the real energy intensity index (lower energy consumption per tonne-kilometre transported), which is partially offset by the behaviour of the structural index (greater share in freight transport of those commodities the transportation of which is more energy intensive). The change in energy intensity is analysed in more depth by quantifying the contribution of each commodity through the attribution of changes in Divisia indices.

Consumer valuation of energy-saving features of residential air conditioners with hedonic and choice models

The promotion of energy-efficient appliances is necessary to reduce the energetic and environmental burden of the household sector. However, many studies have reported that a typical consumer underestimates the benefits of energy-saving investment on the purchase of household electric appliances. To analyze this energy-efficiency gap problem, many scholars have estimated implicit discount rates that consumers use for energy-consuming durables. Although both hedonic and choice models have been used in previous studies, a comparison between two models has not yet been done. This study uses point of sale data about Japanese residential air conditioners and estimates implicit discounts rates with both hedonic and choice models. Both models demonstrate that a typical consumer underinvests in energy efficiency. Although choice models estimate a lower implicit discount rate than hedonic models, the latter models estimate the values of other product characteristics more consistently than choice models.