Monitoring mortality as an indicator of influenza in Catalonia, Spain.

This study aimed to investigate the behaviour of two indicators of influenza activity in the area of Barcelona and to evaluate the usefulness of modelling them to improve the detection of influenza epidemics. DESIGN: Descriptive time series study using the number of deaths due to all causes registered by funeral services and reported cases of influenza-like illness. The study concentrated on five influenza seasons, from week 45 of 1988 to week 44 of 1993. The weekly number of deaths and cases of influenza-like illness registered were processed using identification of a time series ARIMA model. SETTING: Six large towns in the Barcelona province which have more than 60,000 inhabitants and funeral services in all of them. MAIN RESULTS: For mortality, the proposed model was an autoregressive one of order 2 (ARIMA (2,0,0)) and for morbidity it was one of order 3 (ARIMA (3,0,0)). Finally, the two time series were analysed together to facilitate the detection of possible implications between them. The joint study of the two series shows that the mortality series can be modelled separately from the reported morbidity series, but the morbidity series is influenced as much by the number of previous cases of influenza reported as by the previous mortality registered. CONCLUSIONS: The model based on general mortality is useful for detecting epidemic activity of influenza. However, because there is not an absolute gold standard that allows definition of the beginning of the epidemic, the final decision of when it is considered an epidemic and control measures recommended should be taken after evaluating all the indicators included in the influenza surveillance programme.

Public health expenditure and spatial interactions in a decentralized national health system

One of the limitations of cross-country health expenditure analysis refers to the fact that the financing, the internal organization and political restraints of health care decision-making are country-specific and heterogeneous. Yet, a potential solution is to examine the influence of such effects in those countries that have undertaken decentralization processes. In such a setting, it is possible to examine potential expenditure spillovers across the geography of a country as well as the influence of the political ideology of regional incumbents on public health expenditure. This paper examines the determinants of public health expenditure within Spanish region-states (Autonomous Communities, ACs), most of them subject to similar financing structures although exhibiting significant heterogeneity as a result of the increasing decentralization, region-specific political factors along with different use of health care inputs, economic dimension and spatial interactions

Structure and spatial variability of Pinus uncinata Ram. growth forms at two contrasting treeline ecotones in the Spanish Pyrenees.

Describimos la distribución espacial de individuos de Pinus uncinata clasificados según su forma de crecimiento y tamaño en dos ecotonos poco perturbados del límite altitudinal del árbol situados en los Pirineos Centrales españoles (Ordesa, O; Tessó, T). En cada sitio situamos una parcela rectangular (30 140 m), que incluía los límites del árbol y del bosque, y cuyo lado mayor seguía el gradiente altitudinal. En ambos sitios, los individuos vivos eran más grandes y tenían un mayor número de cohortes de acículas pendiente abajo. La distribución de las clases de individuos según su forma de crecimiento y tamaño en el sitio O seguía una secuencia de mayor tamaño pendiente abajo, desde abundantes individuos policórmicos arbustivos (krummholz) con pocas cohortes de acículas (1-3) hasta individuos arbóreos mayores unicórmicos con varias cohortes de acículas (4-12). Por el contrario, los cambios estructurales en el ecotono del sitio T fueron graduales y no siguieron de forma tan clara dicha secuencia

Spatial distribution and biomass of aquatic rooted macrophytes and their relevance in the metabolism of a Mediterranean coastal lagoon

This work aims to characterise the current autotrophic compartment of the Albufera des Grau coastal lagoon (Menorca, Balearic Islands) and to assess the relationship between the submerged macrophytes and the limnological parameters of the lagoon. During the study period the submerged vegetation was dominated by the macrophyte Ruppia cirrhosa, which formed dense extensive meadows covering 79% of the surface. Another macrophyte species, Potamogeton pectinatus, was also observed but only forming small stands near the rushing streams. Macroalgae were only occasionally observed. Macrophyte biomass showed a clear seasonal trend, with maximum values in July. The biomass of R. cirrhosa achieved 1760 g DW m-2, the highest biomass ever reported for this species in the literature. The seasonal production-decomposition cycle of the macrophyte meadows appears to drive the nutrient dynamics and carbon fluxes in the lagoon. Despite the significant biomass accumulation and the absence of a washout of nutrients and organic matter to the sea, the lagoon did not experience a dystrophic collapse. These results indicate that internal metabolism is more important than exchange processes in the lagoon.

Spatial behavior in groups: an agent-based approach

We present an agent-based model with the aim of studying how macro-level dynamics of spatial distances among interacting individuals in a closed space emerge from micro-level dyadic and local interactions. Our agents moved on a lattice (referred to as a room) using a model implemented in a computer program called P-Space in order to minimize their dissatisfaction, defined as a function of the discrepancy between the real distance and the ideal, or desired, distance between agents. Ideal distances evolved in accordance with the agent's personal and social space, which changed throughout the dynamics of the interactions among the agents. In the first set of simulations we studied the effects of the parameters of the function that generated ideal distances, and in a second set we explored how group macrolevel behavior depended on model parameters and other variables. We learned that certain parameter values yielded consistent patterns in the agents' personal and social spaces, which in turn led to avoidance and approaching behaviors in the agents. We also found that the spatial behavior of the group of agents as a whole was influenced by the values of the model parameters, as well as by other variables such as the number of agents. Our work demonstrates that the bottom-up approach is a useful way of explaining macro-level spatial behavior. The proposed model is also shown to be a powerful tool for simulating the spatial behavior of groups of interacting individuals.

Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities

This paper takes the shelf and digs into the complex population’s age structure of Catalan municipalities for the year 2009. Catalonia is a very heterogeneous territory, and age pyramids vary considerably across different areas of the territory, existing geographical factors shaping municipalities’ age distributions. By means of spatial statistics methodologies, this piece of research tries to assess which spatial factors determine the location, scale and shape of local distributions. The results show that there exist different distributional patterns across the geography according to specific local determinants. Keywords: Spatial Models. JEL Classification: C21.

Spatial variability of tree hight at treeline ecotones in the Pyrenees.

We describe the spatial distribution of tree height of Pinus uncinata at two undisturbed altitudinal treeline ecotones in the southern Pyrenees (Ordesa, O, and Tessó, T). At each site, a rectangular plot (30 x 140 m) was located with its longest side parallel to the slope and encompassing treeline and timberline. At site O, height increased abruptly going downslope with a high spatial autocorrelation at short distances. In contrast, the changes of tree height across the ecotone at site T were gradual, and tree height was less spatially autocorrelated. These results can be explained by the greater importance of wind and snow avalanches at sites O and T, respectively.

Mortality rates in by-caught loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta in the Mediterranean Sea and implications for the Atlantic populations

Reliable estimates of the post-release mortality probability of marine turtles after incidental by-catch are essential for assessing the impact of longline fishing on these species.Large numbers of loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta from rookeries in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean have been by-caught annually in the southwestern Mediterranean Sea since the 1980s, but nothing is known about their post-release mortality probability under natural conditions. Pop-up archival transmitting tags were attached to 26 loggerhead turtles following incidental capture by Spanish longliners. Hooks were not removed, and 40 cm of line was left in place. The post-release mortality probability during the 90 d following release ranged from 0.308 to 0.365, and was independent of hook location. When the post-release mortality probability was combined with previously reported estimates of the mortality probability before hauling, the aggregated by-catch mortality probability ranged from 0.321 to 0.378. Assuming a total annual by-catch of 10656 loggerhead turtles by the Spanish longline fleet operating in the southwestern Mediterranean, by-catch results in 3421 to 4028 turtle deaths annually. This range is equivalent to 8.5−10.1% of the approximately 40000 turtles inhabiting the fishing grounds used by Spanish longliners, most of them from rookeries in the northwestern Atlantic. As a consequence, the accumulated mortality during the oceanic stage is expected to be larger for those loggerhead turtles of Atlantic origin that spend several years in the Mediterranean Sea than for turtles of the same cohort that remain in the Atlantic. For this reason, the Mediterranean can be considered a dead end for loggerhead turtle populations nesting in the Atlantic, although the actual demographic relevance of by-catch mortality of loggerhead turtles in the Mediterranean remains unknown.

Are we living longer but less healthy? Trends in mortality and morbidity in Catalonia (Spain), 1994-2011

Evidence on trends in prevalence of disease and disability can clarify whether countries are experiencing a compression or expansion of morbidity. An expansion of morbidity as indicated by disease have appeared in Europe and other developed regions. It is likely that better treatment, preventive measures and increases in education levels have contributed to the declines in mortality and increments in life expectancy. This paper examines whether there has been an expansion of morbidity in Catalonia (Spain). It uses trends in mortality and morbidity from major causes of death and links of these with survival to provide estimates of life expectancy with and without diseases and functioning loss. We use a repeated cross-sectional health survey carried out in 1994 and 2011 for measures of morbidity; mortality information comes from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Our findings show that at age 65 the percentage of life with disease increased from 52% to 70% for men, and from 56% to 72% for women; the expectation of life unable to function increased from 24% to 30% for men and 40% to 47% for women between 1994 and 2011. These changes were attributable to increases in the prevalences of diseases and moderate functional limitation. Overall, we find an expansion of morbidity along the period. Increasing survival among people with diseases can lead to a higher prevalence of diseases in the older population. Higher prevalence of health problems can lead to greater pressure on the health care system and a growing burden of disease for individuals.

Families of periodic orbits for the spatial isosceles 3-body problem

We study the families of periodic orbits of the spatial isosceles 3-body problem (for small enough values of the mass lying on the symmetry axis) coming via the analytic continuation method from periodic orbits of the circular Sitnikov problem. Using the first integral of the angular momentum, we reduce the dimension of the phase space of the problem by two units. Since periodic orbits of the reduced isosceles problem generate invariant two-dimensional tori of the nonreduced problem, the analytic continuation of periodic orbits of the (reduced) circular Sitnikov problem at this level becomes the continuation of invariant two-dimensional tori from the circular Sitnikov problem to the nonreduced isosceles problem, each one filled with periodic or quasi-periodic orbits. These tori are not KAM tori but just isotropic, since we are dealing with a three-degrees-of-freedom system. The continuation of periodic orbits is done in two different ways, the first going directly from the reduced circular Sitnikov problem to the reduced isosceles problem, and the second one using two steps: first we continue the periodic orbits from the reduced circular Sitnikov problem to the reduced elliptic Sitnikov problem, and then we continue those periodic orbits of the reduced elliptic Sitnikov problem to the reduced isosceles problem. The continuation in one or two steps produces different results. This work is merely analytic and uses the variational equations in order to apply Poincar´e’s continuation method.

Central configurations of nested regular polyhedra for the spatial 2n–body problem

We consider 2n masses located at the vertices of two nested regular polyhedra with the same number of vertices. Assuming that the masses in each polyhedron are equal, we prove that for each ratio of the masses of the inner and the outer polyhedron there exists a unique ratio of the length of the edges of the inner and the outer polyhedron such that the configuration is central.

Central configurations of three nested regular polyhedra for the spatial 3n–body problem

Three regular polyhedra are called nested if they have the same number of vertices n, the same center and the positions of the vertices of the inner polyhedron ri, the ones of the medium polyhedron Ri and the ones of the outer polyhedron Ri satisfy the relation Ri = ri and Ri = Rri for some scale factors R > > 1 and for all i = 1, . . . , n. We consider 3n masses located at the vertices of three nested regular polyhedra. We assume that the masses of the inner polyhedron are equal to m1, the masses of the medium one are equal to m2, and the masses of the outer one are equal to m3. We prove that if the ratios of the masses m2/m1 and m3/m1 and the scale factors and R satisfy two convenient relations, then this configuration is central for the 3n–body problem. Moreover there is some numerical evidence that, first, fixed two values of the ratios m2/m1 and m3/m1, the 3n–body problem has a unique central configuration of this type; and second that the number of nested regular polyhedra with the same number of vertices forming a central configuration for convenient masses and sizes is arbitrary.

Spatial Polarization of the Ecological Footprint distribution

The international allocation of natural resources is determined, not by any ethical or ecological criteria, but by the dominance of market mechanisms. From a core-periphery perspective, this allocation may even be driven by historically determined structural patterns, with a core group of countries whose consumption appropriates most available natural resources, and another group, having low natural resource consumption, which plays a peripheral role. This article consists of an empirical distributional analysis of natural resource consumption (as measured by Ecological Footprints) whose purpose is to assess the extent to which the distribution of consumption responds to polarization (as opposed to mere inequality). To assess this, we estimate and decompose different polarization indices for a balanced sample of 119 countries over the period 1961 to 2007. Our results points toward a polarized distribution which is consistent with a core-periphery framework.

Spatial mapping of exciton lifetimes in single ZnO nanowires

We investigate the spatial dependence of the exciton lifetimes in single ZnO nanowires. We have found that the free exciton and bound exciton lifetimes exhibit a maximum at the center of nanowires, while they decrease by 30% towards the tips. This dependence is explained by considering the cavity-like properties of the nanowires in combination with the Purcell effect. We show that the lifetime of the bound-excitons scales with the localization energy to the power of 3/2, which validates the model of Rashba and Gurgenishvili at the nanoscale.

Association of early repolarization with risk of cardiac mortality in the general population

Early repolarization, which is characterized by an elevation of the J-point on 12-lead electrocardiography, is a common finding that has been considered as benign for decades. However, in the last years, it has been related with vulnerability to idiopathic ventricular fibrillation and with cardiac mortality in the general population. Recently, 4 potential ECG predictors that could differentiate the benign from the malignant form of early repolarization have been suggested. Any previous study about early repolarization has been done in Spain. Aim. To ascertain whether the presence of early repolarization pattern in a resting electrocardiogram is associated with a major risk of cardiac death in a Spanish general population and to determine whether the presence of potential predictors of malignancy in a resting electrocardiogram increases the risk of cardiac mortality in patients with early repolarization pattern. Methods. We will analyse the presence of early repolarization and the occurrence of cardiac mortality in a retrospective cohort study of 4,279 participants aged 25 to 74 years in the province of Girona. This cohort has been followed during a mean of 9.8 years. Early repolarization will be stratified according to the degree of J-point elevation (≥0.1 mV or ≥0.2 mV), the morphology of the J-wave (slurring, notching or any of these two), the ST-segment pattern (ascending or descending) and the localization (inferior leads, lateral leads, or both). Association of early repolarization with cardiac death will be assessed by adjusted Cox-proportional hazards models