The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

La vorera d'enfront : trajectòries migratòries a l'Algèria colonial

Des dels inicis de l'ocupació francesa d'Algèria, a les acaballes de la primera meitat del segle XIX, un gran nombre de valencians, menorquins, andalusos i murcians, fugint de la misèria i de la fam o com a conseqüència de la inestabilitat política i social d'Espanya, es dirigiren al país magrebí a la cerca d'una vida millor. Aquesta migració es perllongà al llarg de més d'un segle, i es va caracteritzar pel seu dinamisme: un flux continu d'entrades i eixides i una gran heterogeneïtat de procedències. L'amalgama creada a l'Algèria colonial amb la coexistència i interacció de diferents realitats culturals, donà lloc a un nou sentiment d'identitat dins la comunitat d'origen europeu, impulsat per una solidaritat espontània dirigida a assolir una estabilitat econòmica i de subsistència, però també per un esforç polític premeditat de l'administració colonial francesa adreçat a cohesionar, mitjançant la francització, els europeus i jueus del país nord-africà

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Introduction: Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. Methods: We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis. Results: Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively. Conclusions: Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

Background: During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia.

Emergency hospital services utilization in Lleida (Spain): a cross-sectional study of immigrant and Spanish-born populations

Background: The use of emergency hospital services (EHS) has increased steadily in Spain in the last decade while the number of immigrants has increased dramatically. Studies show that immigrants use EHS differently than native-born individuals, and this work investigates demographics, diagnoses and utilization rates of EHS in Lleida (Spain). Methods: Cross-sectional study of all the 96,916 EHS visits by patients 15 to 64 years old, attended during the years 2004 and 2005 in a public teaching hospital. Demographic data, diagnoses of the EHS visits, frequency of hospital admissions, mortality and diagnoses at hospital discharge were obtained. Utilization rates were estimated by group of origin. Poisson regression was used to estimate the rate ratios of being visited in the EHS with respect to the Spanish-born population. Results: Immigrants from low-income countries use EHS services more than the Spanish-born population. Differences in utilization patterns are particularly marked for Maghrebi men and women and sub-Saharan women. Immigrant males are at lower risk of being admitted to the hospital, as compared with Spanish-born males. On the other hand, immigrant women are at higher risk of being admitted. After excluding the visits with gynecologic and obstetric diagnoses, women from sub-Saharan Africa and the Maghreb are still at a higher risk of being admitted than their Spanish-born counterparts. Conclusion: In Lleida (Spain), immigrants use more EHS than the Spanish born population. Future research should indicate whether the same pattern is found in other areas of Spain and whether EHS use is attributable to health needs, barriers to access to the primary care services or similarities in the way immigrants access health care in their countries of origin.

Evolución de la mortalidad por cáncer de mama y diseminación de la mamografía de cribado en Cataluña: un análisis por regiones sanitarias

Fundamento: El descenso de las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de mama (CM) se ha atribuido a la implantación de programas de cribado y a avances terapéuticos. El objetivo de este trabajo es comparar la evolución de su mortalidad en las regiones sanitarias de Cataluña en el periodo 1993-2007. Paralelamente, se ha analizado la diseminación de la mamografía periódica en las regiones sanitarias. Métodos: Se analizaron los datos del registro de mortalidad y encuestas de salud. Se utilizaron regresiones de Poisson y «joinpoint» para comparar las tasas de mortalidad por CM y analizar su evolución temporal. Se utilizaron modelos de efectos mixtos para comparar el nivel y la evolución de la mortalidad por regiones. Resultados. La tasa de mortalidad por CM descendió un 3% anual en Cataluña. Entre 1993 y 2007, la tasa estandarizada varió de 34,8 a 23,3 por 100.000 mujeres. Barcelona ciutat presentó unas tasas de mortalidad más elevadas que las regiones Centre (ratio de tasas (RT)=0,87), Costa de Ponent (RT=0,89), Tarragona (RT=0,9) y Lleida (RT=0,915), pero estas diferencias tendieron a desaparecer. No se observaron cambios de tendencia en la evolución de la mortalidad de las regiones, excepto en la región Centre. Durante los años 1990 Barcelona ciutat presentó unos porcentajes de utilización de mamografía periódica del 36,1% de las mujeres de 40-74 años, en la encuesta de 1994, la región Centre (23,7%) y Costa de Ponent (25,2%). Conclusiones: La progresiva utilización de mamografía periódica y la disminución de la mortalidad por CM fueron similares en las regiones sanitarias de Cataluña.

Health care usage among immigrants and native-born elderly populations in eleven European countries: results from SHARE

Differences in health care utilization of immigrants 50 years of age and older relative to the native-born populations in eleven European countries are investigated. Negative binomial and zero-inflated Poisson regression are used to examine differences between immigrants and native-borns in number of doctor visits, visits to general practitioners, and hospital stays using the 2004 Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe database. In the pooled European sample and in some individual countries, older immigrants use from 13 to 20% more health services than native-borns after demographic characteristics are controlled. After controlling for the need for health care, differences between immigrants and native-borns in the use of physicians, but not hospitals, are reduced by about half. These are not changed much with the incorporation of indicators of socioeconomic status and extra insurance coverage. Higher country-level relative expenditures on health, paying physicians a fee-for-service, and physician density are associated with higher usage of physician services among immigrants.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Activity patterns and foraging behaviour of Audouin's gulls at the Ebro Delta, NW Mediterranean.

Twenty Audouin´s gulls, Larus audouinii, breeding in the Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean) were radio-tracked in 1998 to study their foraging behaviour and activity patterns. Some detrimental effects of tagging on the breeding success of the birds were detected, especially when both members of the pair were tagged. The results were actually constrained by the low number of locations due to natural breeding failure and failure in tag emission, as well as the adverse effect of tagging. However, through a combination of aircraft surveys at sea and a fixed station for automatic tracking of the presence of the birds at the colony, novel individual-based information of home ranges and activity patterns was obtained. Trawler fishing activity seemed to influence both the foraging range and habitat use: while trawlers operated, gulls overlapped their fishing grounds with vessels, probably to scavenge on discards. Very few locations were obtained during a trawling moratorium period, although they were all recorded in coastal bays and terrestrial habitats. During the trawling activity period, gulls ranged over a minimum convex polygon area of 2900 km2. Gulls were tracked up to 40 km from the colony, but some individuals were observed beyond 150 km while still breeding. Arrivals and departures from the colony were in accordance with the trawling timetable. However, most birds also showed some nocturnal foraging activity, probably linked to active fishing of clupeoids (following diel migrations) or to the exploitation of purse-seine fishing activity. Foraging trips lasted on average 15 hours: males performed significantly shorter trips than females, which spent more time outside the colony. The proportion of nocturnal time involved in the foraging trips was the same for males and females, but whilst all males initiated their trips both during the day and at night, some females only initiated their trips during the day. Hatching success was found to be related to foraging effort by males. Gulls spent on average ca. 38% of their time budget outside the nesting territory, representing the time devoted mainly to flying, foraging and other activities.

Effective Electrodiffusion equation for non uniform nanochannels

We derive a one dimensional formulation of the Planck-Nernst-Poisson equation to describe the dynamics of of a symmetric binary electrolyte in channels whose section is of nanometric section and varies along the axial direction. The approach is in the spirit of the Fick-Jacobs di fusion equation and leads to a system of coupled equations for the partial densities which depends on the charge sitting at the walls in a non trivial fashion. We consider two kinds of non uniformities, those due to the spatial variation of charge distribution and those due to the shape variation of the pore and report one and three-dimensional solutions of the electrokinetic equations.

Antireflection coatings from analogy between electron scattering and spin precession

We use the analogy between scattering of a wave from a potential, and the precession of a spin-half particle in a magnetic field, to gain insight into the design of an antireflection coating for electrons in a semiconductor superlattice. It is shown that the classic recipes derived for optics are generally not applicable due to the different dispersion law for electrons. Using the stability conditions we show that a Poisson distribution of impedance steps is a better approximation than is a Gaussian distribution. Examples are given of filters with average transmissivity exceeding 95% over an allowed band.

Differences in seasonal price patterns among second home rentals and hotels: Empirical evidence and practical implications

Hotels and second home rentals are two of the most important tourist accommodation options in Spain. In terms of seasonality, almost all previous studies have analysed tourism demand from the point of view either of total arrivals or the number of tourists lodged in a single accommodation type (hotels, rural accommodation, etc). However, there are no studies focusing on price seasonality orcomparing seasonality among different accommodation types. By using seasonality indicators and a price index constructed by means of hedonic methods, this paper aims to shed some light on seasonal pricing patterns among second home rentals and hotels. The paper relies on a 2004 database of 144 hotels and 1,002 apartments on the Costa Brava (northeast Spain). The results show that prices for second home rentals display a smoother seasonal pattern than hotels due to reduced price differences between shoulder (May and October) and peak periods (August)

On Lundh's percolation diffusion

A collection of spherical obstacles in the unit ball in Euclidean space is said to be avoidable for Brownian motion if there is a positive probability that Brownian motion diffusing from some point in the ball will avoid all the obstacles and reach the boundary of the ball. The centres of the spherical obstacles are generated according to a Poisson point process while the radius of an obstacle is a deterministic function. If avoidable configurations are generated with positive probability, Lundh calls this percolation diffusion. An integral condition for percolation diffusion is derived in terms of the intensity of the point process and the function that determines the radii of the obstacles.

Una aplicación de RExcel para el cálculo de provisiones técnicas con modelo lineal generalizado

Aplicativo de RExcel que realiza cálculo de provisiones técnicas de prestaciones pendientes para el caso en que el modelo lineal generalizado tiene distribución de Poisson (sobredispersa) junto con función de enlace logarítmica y por lo tanto tiene como caso particular el método Chain-Ladder. Contempla el cálculo de reservas por años de origen, por años de calendario y total. Y permite aplicar fórmulas analíticas o distribuciones estimadas mediante bootstrap.