Proving the performance of a new revenue management system

Revenue management (RM) is a complicated business process that can best be described ascontrol of sales (using prices, restrictions, or capacity), usually using software as a tool to aiddecisions. RM software can play a mere informative role, supplying analysts with formatted andsummarized data who use it to make control decisions (setting a price or allocating capacity fora price point), or, play a deeper role, automating the decisions process completely, at the otherextreme. The RM models and algorithms in the academic literature by and large concentrateon the latter, completely automated, level of functionality.A firm considering using a new RM model or RM system needs to evaluate its performance.Academic papers justify the performance of their models using simulations, where customerbooking requests are simulated according to some process and model, and the revenue perfor-mance of the algorithm compared to an alternate set of algorithms. Such simulations, whilean accepted part of the academic literature, and indeed providing research insight, often lackcredibility with management. Even methodologically, they are usually awed, as the simula-tions only test \within-model" performance, and say nothing as to the appropriateness of themodel in the first place. Even simulations that test against alternate models or competition arelimited by their inherent necessity on fixing some model as the universe for their testing. Theseproblems are exacerbated with RM models that attempt to model customer purchase behav-ior or competition, as the right models for competitive actions or customer purchases remainsomewhat of a mystery, or at least with no consensus on their validity.How then to validate a model? Putting it another way, we want to show that a particularmodel or algorithm is the cause of a certain improvement to the RM process compared to theexisting process. We take care to emphasize that we want to prove the said model as the causeof performance, and to compare against a (incumbent) process rather than against an alternatemodel.In this paper we describe a \live" testing experiment that we conducted at Iberia Airlineson a set of flights. A set of competing algorithms control a set of flights during adjacentweeks, and their behavior and results are observed over a relatively long period of time (9months). In parallel, a group of control flights were managed using the traditional mix of manualand algorithmic control (incumbent system). Such \sandbox" testing, while common at manylarge internet search and e-commerce companies is relatively rare in the revenue managementarea. Sandbox testing has an undisputable model of customer behavior but the experimentaldesign and analysis of results is less clear. In this paper we describe the philosophy behind theexperiment, the organizational challenges, the design and setup of the experiment, and outlinethe analysis of the results. This paper is a complement to a (more technical) related paper thatdescribes the econometrics and statistical analysis of the results.

Altruism, equity and reciprocity in a gift-exchange experiment: An encompassing approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motivesmust be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recentmodels of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as either altruism-based, equity-based, or reciprocity-based. We estimate and compareleading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. Wethen offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches,thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determiningthe relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition,the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we findthat intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruisticconsiderations all play a significant role in players' decisions.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Imitation of succesful behavior in Cournot markets

In an experimental standard Cournot Oligopoly we test the importance ofmodels of behavior characterized by imitation of succesful behavior. Wefind that the players appear to the rather reluctant to imitate.

The risk of divorce and household saving behavior

We analyze the impact of an increase in the risk of divorce on the savingbehaviour of married couples. From a theoretical perspective, the expected sign of theeffect is ambiguous. We take advantage of the legalization of divorce in Ireland in 1996as an exogenous increase in the likelihood of marital dissolution. We analyze the savingbehaviour over time of couples who were married before the law was passed. We proposea difference-in-differences approach where we use as comparison groups either marriedcouples in other European countries (not affected by the law change), or Irish familieswho did not experience a significant increase in the expected risk of divorce (such as veryreligious families, or single individuals). Our results suggest that the increase in the riskof divorce brought about by the law was followed by an increase in the propensity to saveof married couples, consistent with a rise in precautionary savings interpretation. Anincrease in the risk of marital dissolution of about 40 percent led to a 7 to 13 percent risein the proportion of married couples reporting positive savings.

A theory of reference-dependent behavior

Extensive field and experimental evidence in a variety of environments show that behavior depends on a reference point. This paper provides an axiomatic characterization of this dependence. We proceed by imposing gradually more structure on both choice correspondences and preference relations, requiring increasingly higher levels of rationality, and freeing the decision-maker from certain types of inconsistencies. The appropriate degree of behavioral structure will depend on the phenomenon that is to be modeled. Lastly, we provide two applications of our work: one to model the status-quo bias, and another to model addictive behavior.

On the short-time behavior of the implied volatility for jump-diffusion models with stochastic volatility

In this paper we use Malliavin calculus techniques to obtain an expression for the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility skew for a generalization of the Bates model, where the volatility does not need to be neither a difussion, nor a Markov process as the examples in section 7 show. This expression depends on the derivative of the volatility in the sense of Malliavin calculus.

Ethical differentiation and market behavior: An experimental approach

Does ethical differentiation of products affect market behavior? We examined this issue in triopolistic experimental markets where producers set prices. One producer s costs were higher than the others. In two treatments, the additional costs were attributed tocompliance with ethical guidelines. In the third, no justification was provided. Manyparticipants playing the role of consumers reduced their experimental gains by purchasing the ethically differentiated product at a higher price whether or not they knew the amount of extra cost. Individual differences were important (students of business/economics paid smaller premia than others). Finally, we speculate about the observed demand function for ethics and emphasize the use of experimental methodology to complement empirical studies designed to assess the potential market for ethically differentiated products.

On the complexity of rationalizing behavior

We study the complexity of rationalizing choice behavior. We do so by analyzing two polar cases, and a number of intermediate ones. In our most structured case, that is where choice behavior is defined in universal choice domains and satisfies the "weak axiom of revealed preference," finding the complete preorder rationalizing choice behavior is a simple matter. In the polar case, where no restriction whatsoever is imposed, either on choice behavior or on choice domain, finding the complete preordersthat rationalize behavior turns out to be intractable. We show that the task of finding the rationalizing complete preorders is equivalent to a graph problem. This allows the search for existing algorithms in the graph theory literature, for the rationalization of choice.

Europe and the Petersberg Tasks – Nation-State behavior through the prism of Strategic Culture

Les missions Petersberg són l'operatiu militar més ambiciós organitzat per la Unió Europea en el desenvolupament de la CSDP, Política Europea de Seguretat i Defensa. Amb l'objectiu d'aconseguir una organització efectiva y funcional d'aquestes missions, és desitjable que les cultures estratègiques dels diferents Estats membres siguin, en gran mesura, compatibles en benefici d'una cultura estratègica europea amb directrius clares. Aquest estudi compara les cultures estratègiques d'Alemanya, el Regne Unit i França en referència al seu nivell de compatibilitat contrastant-les amb dos casos recents, exemples paradigmàtics de cultures estratègiques integrals. D'aquesta manera, pretenem descriure les circumstàncies en què es desenvolupen les missions Petersberg.

A qualitative study of the impact of electronic journals on scholarly information behavior

A qualitative study of the impact of electronic journals on the information behavior of academics at Catalan universities shows that academics now read more, and more widely. However, their reading is becoming more superficial; they are compelled to improve their discrimination skills in order to decide what to read in more depth. The electronic accessibility of journals means that academics now make fewer library visits. Web browsing and TOC e-mail alerts are replacing physical browsing, and searching is a very popular option for keeping up to date with developments. Internet search engines, especially Google and Google Scholar, are becoming important sources of information for academics. However, they face problems in managing their personal scientific information.

Vascular endothelial growth factor and angiopoietin-2 play a major role in the pathogenesis of vascular leakage in cirrhotic rats.

Background and aims: The extent and molecular mechanisms governing plasma extravasation and formation of ascites in cirrhosis are unknown. Vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A) and angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) are endogenous substances with powerful vascular permeability effects. We assessed regional blood flow, vascular leakage, mRNA and tissular expression of VEGF-A and Ang-2 and vascular permeability following VEGF receptor 2 blockade in control and cirrhotic rats to define the vascular territories showing altered vascular permeability in cirrhosis and to determine whether VEGF-A and Ang-2 are involved in this phenomenon. Methods: Arterial blood flow was analysed with the coloured microsphere method. Vascular leakage was measured and visualised with the dye Evan¿s Blue and colloidal carbon techniques, respectively. VEGF-A and Ang-2 expression were determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), immunohistochemistry and western blot. The effect on vascular permeability induced by VEGFR2 blockade was assessed by administration of the receptor inhibitor SU11248. Results: Arterial blood flow was increased in the mesentery, pancreas and small intestine but not in the kidney and spleen of cirrhotic rats as compared to controls. Increased vascular leakage was observed in the mesentery and liver, where colloidal carbon spread from microvessels to the adjacent fibrotic tracts. Increased hepatic and mesenteric expression of VEGF-A and Ang-2 was found in cirrhotic rats as compared to controls. Blockade of VEGFR2 markedly reduced hepatic and mesenteric vascular leakage in cirrhotic rats. Conclusions: Enhanced endothelial permeability is restricted to the hepatic and mesenteric vascular beds in cirrhotic rats with ascites and VEGF-A and Ang-2 are key factors in the signalling pathways regulating this dysfunction.

Time-scale and other invariants of integrative mechanical behavior in living cells.

In dealing with systems as complex as the cytoskeleton, we need organizing principles or, short of that, an empirical framework into which these systems fit. We report here unexpected invariants of cytoskeletal behavior that comprise such an empirical framework. We measured elastic and frictional moduli of a variety of cell types over a wide range of time scales and using a variety of biological interventions. In all instances elastic stresses dominated at frequencies below 300 Hz, increased only weakly with frequency, and followed a power law; no characteristic time scale was evident. Frictional stresses paralleled the elastic behavior at frequencies below 10 Hz but approached a Newtonian viscous behavior at higher frequencies. Surprisingly, all data could be collapsed onto master curves, the existence of which implies that elastic and frictional stresses share a common underlying mechanism. Taken together, these findings define an unanticipated integrative framework for studying protein interactions within the complex microenvironment of the cell body, and appear to set limits on what can be predicted about integrated mechanical behavior of the matrix based solely on cytoskeletal constituents considered in isolation. Moreover, these observations are consistent with the hypothesis that the cytoskeleton of the living cell behaves as a soft glassy material, wherein cytoskeletal proteins modulate cell mechanical properties mainly by changing an effective temperature of the cytoskeletal matrix. If so, then the effective temperature becomes an easily quantified determinant of the ability of the cytoskeleton to deform, flow, and reorganize.

Hexokinase 2, Glycogen Synthase and Phosphorylase Play a Key Role in Muscle Glycogen Supercompensation

Background: Glycogen-depleting exercise can lead to supercompensation of muscle glycogen stores, but the biochemical mechanisms of this phenomenon are still not completely understood. Methods: Using chronic low-frequency stimulation (CLFS) as an exercise model, the tibialis anterior muscle of rabbits was stimulated for either 1 or 24 hours, inducing a reduction in glycogen of 90% and 50% respectively. Glycogen recovery was subsequently monitored during 24 hours of rest. Results: In muscles stimulated for 1 hour, glycogen recovered basal levels during the rest period. However, in those stimulated for 24 hours, glycogen was supercompensated and its levels remained 50% higher than basal levels after 6 hours of rest, although the newly synthesized glycogen had fewer branches. This increase in glycogen correlated with an increase in hexokinase-2 expression and activity, a reduction in the glycogen phosphorylase activity ratio and an increase in the glycogen synthase activity ratio, due to dephosphorylation of site 3a, even in the presence of elevated glycogen stores. During supercompensation there was also an increase in 59-AMP-activated protein kinase phosphorylation, correlating with a stable reduction in ATP and total purine nucleotide levels. Conclusions: Glycogen supercompensation requires a coordinated chain of events at two levels in the context of decreased cell energy balance: First, an increase in the glucose phosphorylation capacity of the muscle and secondly, control of the enzymes directly involved in the synthesis and degradation of the glycogen molecule. However, supercompensated glycogen has fewer branches.