Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from 5 years of ECB and implications for Turkey

We examine monetary policy in the Euro area from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We discuss what theory tells us the strategy of Central banks should be and contrasts it with the one employed by the ECB. We review accomplishments (and failures) of monetary policy in the Euro area and suggest changes that would increase the correlation between words and actions; streamline the understanding that markets have of the policy process; and anchor expectation formation more strongly. We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the Euro area and in some potential member countries and try to infer the likely effects occurring when Turkey joins the EU first and the Euro area later. Much of the analysis here warns against having too high expectations of the economic gains that membership to the EU and Euro club will produce.

What explains the Great Moderation in the US? A structural analysis

This paper investigates what has caused output and inflation volatility to fall in the USusing a small scale structural model using Bayesian techniques and rolling samples. Thereare instabilities in the posterior of the parameters describing the private sector, the policyrule and the standard deviation of the shocks. Results are robust to the specification ofthe policy rule. Changes in the parameters describing the private sector are the largest,but those of the policy rule and the covariance matrix of the shocks explain the changes most.

European research funding and regional technological capabilities: Network composition analysis

We use network and correspondence analysis to describe the compositionof the research networks in the European BRITE--EURAM program. Our mainfinding is that 27\% of the participants in this program fall into one oftwo sets of highly ``interconnected'' institutions --one centered aroundlarge firms (with smaller firms and research centers providing specializedservices), and the other around universities--. Moreover, these ``hubs''are composed largely of institutions coming from the technologically mostadvanced regions of Europe. This is suggestive of the difficulties of attainingEuropean ``cohesion'', as technically advanced institutions naturally linkwith partners of similar technological capabilities.

The EU strategy of policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade

The objective of this paper is to ascertain whether the EU is seeking policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade by means of EU regulations. For each trade- related topic, we carried out a content analysis of the available official documents to identify the model of relations that has been established between the EU and four neighbouring countries (Morocco, Algeria, Ukraine and Georgia). The findings indicate that Europeanization is the EU strategy in most cases. However, adaptation to European regulations is only a long-term aim. When international regulations exist in a specific area, the EU usually demands the internationalization of a country¿s regulations as a first step. When there are no international regulations, the convergence process is established on the basis of bilaterally developed norms. EU strategy also varies depending on the country. Its relations with Algeria are the most particular. We conclude that the EU is promoting policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade mainly on the basis of international and bilaterally-developed regulations.

The EU strategy of policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade

The objective of this paper is to ascertain whether the EU is seeking policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade by means of EU regulations. For each trade- related topic, we carried out a content analysis of the available official documents to identify the model of relations that has been established between the EU and four neighbouring countries (Morocco, Algeria, Ukraine and Georgia). The findings indicate that Europeanization is the EU strategy in most cases. However, adaptation to European regulations is only a long-term aim. When international regulations exist in a specific area, the EU usually demands the internationalization of a country¿s regulations as a first step. When there are no international regulations, the convergence process is established on the basis of bilaterally developed norms. EU strategy also varies depending on the country. Its relations with Algeria are the most particular. We conclude that the EU is promoting policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade mainly on the basis of international and bilaterally-developed regulations.

Deciding the sale of a life policy in the viatical market: Implications on individual welfare

[cat] En aquest article, es presenta un model econòmic que permet determinar la venda o no d'una pòlissa de vida (total o en part) per part d'un assegurat malalt terminal en el mercat dels viatical settlements. Aquest mercat va aparèixer a finals de la dècada dels 80 a conseqüència de l'epidèmia de la SIDA. Actualment, representa una part del mercat dels life settlements. Les pòlisses que es comercialitzen en el mercat dels viaticals són aquelles on l'assegurat és malalt terminal amb una esperança de vida de dos anys o menys. El model és discret i considera només dos períodes (anys), ja que aquesta és la vida residual màxima que contempla el mercat. L'agent posseix una riquesa inicial que ha de repartir entre consum i herència. S'introdueix en primer lloc la funció d'utilitat esperada del decisor i, utilitzant programació dinàmica, es dedueix l'estratègia que reporta una utilitat més gran (no vendre/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment zero/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment ú). L'òptim depèn del preu de la pòlissa venuda i de paràmetres personals de l'individu. Es troba una expressió analítica per l'estratègia òptima i es realitza un anàlisi de sensibilitat.

Price transmission and market power analysis in the Spanish seafood market chain

[cat] Espanya és un dels principals mercats de productes pesquers d’Europa i del món. El consum de productes pesquers ha estat tradicionalment molt important a Espanya, el 2005 es varen consumir 36,7 kg per persona (MAPA, diversos anys). Malgrat això, el mercat i cóm interactuen els diversos nivells de la cadena de comercialització han gaudit de poca atenció. En aquest estudi, utilitzant dades setmanals, s’analitza per als dotze principals productes pesquers, l’elasticitat en la transmissió de preus al llarg de la cadena de comercialització a Espanya (llotja, mercat central i detallista). Finalment s’investiga la presència d’assimetria en la transmissió de preus entre aquests nivells de mercat. Els resultats obtinguts tenen importants implicacions a l’hora d’analitzar la demanda, poder de mercat i marges al llarg del mercat per als productes pesquers.

Political economy of municipal water service privatization in Spain: a duration model analysis

This empirical work applies a duration model to the study of factors determining privatization of local water services. I assess how factors determining privatization decision evolve as time goes by. A sample of 133 Spanish municipalities during the six terms of office taken place during the 1980-2002 period is analyzed. A dynamic neighboring effect is hypothesized and successfully tested. In a first stage, private water supply firms may try to expand to regions where there is no service privatized, in order to spread over this region after having being installed thanks to its scale advantages. Other factors influencing privatization decision evolve during the two decades under study, from the priority to fix old infrastructures to the concern about service efficiency. Some complementary results regarding political and budgetary factors are also obtained

Deciding the sale of a life policy in the viatical market: Implications on individual welfare

[cat] En aquest article, es presenta un model econòmic que permet determinar la venda o no d'una pòlissa de vida (total o en part) per part d'un assegurat malalt terminal en el mercat dels viatical settlements. Aquest mercat va aparèixer a finals de la dècada dels 80 a conseqüència de l'epidèmia de la SIDA. Actualment, representa una part del mercat dels life settlements. Les pòlisses que es comercialitzen en el mercat dels viaticals són aquelles on l'assegurat és malalt terminal amb una esperança de vida de dos anys o menys. El model és discret i considera només dos períodes (anys), ja que aquesta és la vida residual màxima que contempla el mercat. L'agent posseix una riquesa inicial que ha de repartir entre consum i herència. S'introdueix en primer lloc la funció d'utilitat esperada del decisor i, utilitzant programació dinàmica, es dedueix l'estratègia que reporta una utilitat més gran (no vendre/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment zero/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment ú). L'òptim depèn del preu de la pòlissa venuda i de paràmetres personals de l'individu. Es troba una expressió analítica per l'estratègia òptima i es realitza un anàlisi de sensibilitat.

Price transmission and market power analysis in the Spanish seafood market chain

[cat] Espanya és un dels principals mercats de productes pesquers d’Europa i del món. El consum de productes pesquers ha estat tradicionalment molt important a Espanya, el 2005 es varen consumir 36,7 kg per persona (MAPA, diversos anys). Malgrat això, el mercat i cóm interactuen els diversos nivells de la cadena de comercialització han gaudit de poca atenció. En aquest estudi, utilitzant dades setmanals, s’analitza per als dotze principals productes pesquers, l’elasticitat en la transmissió de preus al llarg de la cadena de comercialització a Espanya (llotja, mercat central i detallista). Finalment s’investiga la presència d’assimetria en la transmissió de preus entre aquests nivells de mercat. Els resultats obtinguts tenen importants implicacions a l’hora d’analitzar la demanda, poder de mercat i marges al llarg del mercat per als productes pesquers.

International Equity on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and World Levels: an integrated analysis through distributive welfare indices

Up until now, analyses of the international distribution of pollutant emissions have not paid sufficient attention to the implications that, in terms of social welfare, the combined evolution of the global world average entails. In this context, this paper proposes the use of environmental welfare indices, taken and adapted from the literature on social welfare and inequality, in order to make a comprehensive examination of the international equity factor and the mean factor in this field. The proposed methodology is implemented empirically in order to explore the evolution in distributive-based environmental welfare on a global level for the three main pollutants with greenhouse gas effects: CO2, CH4 and NO, both globally and for selected years during the period of 1990- 2005. The main results found are as follows: firstly, typically, the environmental welfare associated with the overall greenhouse gases decreased significantly over the period, due primarily to the role of CO2; secondly, in contrast, the global welfare associated with CH4 and NO improved; and thirdly, typically, the evolutions can be attributed to a greater extent to the mean component than to the distributive component, although there are exceptions. These results would seem to be relevant in policy terms. JEL codes: D39; Q43; Q56. Keywords: environmental welfare: greenhouse gases; environmental equity.

Decentralization and the Welfare State: What Do Citizens Perceive?

Trust in public institutions and public policies are generally perceived as a precondition for economic recovery in times of recession. Recent empirical evidence tends to find a positive link between decentralization and trust. But our knowledge about whether decentralization – through increased trust – improves the perception of the delivery and effectiveness of public policies is still limited. In this paper we estimate the impact of fiscal and political decentralization on the perception of the state of the education system and of health services, by using the 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008 waves of the European social survey. The analysis of the views of 160,000 individuals in 31 European countries indicates that while the effect of fiscal decentralization on the perception of the state of the health and education system is limited, political decentralization clearly affects citizen’s satisfaction with education and health delivery. The influence of political decentralization, however, is highly contingent on whether we consider the capacity of the local or regional government to exercise authority over its citizens (self-rule) or to influence policy at the national level (shared-rule). Keywords: Education, health, satisfaction, fiscal and political decentralization, Europe. JEL codes: H11, H77

The Social Politics of Fatherhood in Spain and France: a Comparative Analysis of Parental Leave and Shared Residence

The Social Politics of Fatherhood in Spain and France: A Comparative Analysis of Parental Leave and Shared Residence The article provides a comparative analysis of policy developments on leaves for fathers and joint custody in Spain and France in the last decade. These two types of measures have been selected because they are both widely recognised as main instruments to promote new fathering styles and consequently more gender equality in the European Union. While the rhetoric of choice has been developed in both countries in relation to maternal employment and childcare, with better results in France than in Spain, it remains to be seen to what extent choice will also be extended to fathers. Keywords: Fatherhood. Family. Comparative social policy. Parental leave. Joint custody.

Toward partial redirection of energy policy for responsible development

This paper addresses the surprising lack of quality control on the analysis and selection on energy policies observable in the last decades. As an example, we discuss the delusional idea that it is possible to replace fossil energy with large scale ethanol production from agricultural crops. But if large scale ethanol production is not practical in energetic terms, why huge amount of money has been invested in it and is it still being invested? In order to answer this question we introduce two concepts useful to frame, in general terms, the predicament of quality control in science: (i) the concept of “granfalloons” proposed by K. Vonnegut (1963) flagging the danger of the formation of “crusades to save the world” void of real meaning. These granfalloons are often used by powerful lobbies to distort policy decisions; and (ii) the concept of Post-Normal science by S. Funtowicz and J. Ravetz (1990) indicating a standard predicament faced by science when producing information for governance. When mixing together uncertainty, multiple-scale and legitimate but contrasting views it becomes impossible to deal with complex issue using the conventional scientific approach based on reductionism. We finally discuss the implications of a different approach to the assessment of alternative energy sources by introducing the concept of Promethean technology.