Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Effects of artisanal fisheries on the scorpaenids (Scorpaena spp.) reproduction in the marine protected area of Cap de Creus (NW Mediterranean)

Rockfish species are considered important to the ecology of rocky-reef communities which constitute a key habitat in many coastal marine protected areas (MPAs). These species, which are commercially valuable for artisanal fisheries in the Mediterranean, display particular biological traits that could render them vulnerable to fishing. In this study we monitored the artisanal fisheries of scorpaenids (Scorpaena spp.) in the MPA of Cap de Creus (northwestern Mediterranean) in order to estimate the status of their populations, to link captures with the reproduction of these species, and to evaluate the potential impact that artisanal fishing may have on them. Data from onboard sampling with artisanal fishermen and from fisheries statistics (total landings) were used. Total landings and catch per unit of effort (CPUE) follow a clearly seasonal cycle, with a prominent peak during the summer months coinciding with their spawning season, which may be due to mating behavior prior to fertilization. Although maximum sizes are bigger inside the MPA than in non-protected areas situated close by, a significant percentage of individuals caught inside the MPA are below their size at sexual maturity. Although rockfish seem to be favored by the partial protection of the MPA, the allowed artisanal fisheries are probably impacting the reproduction of these species