Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Pattern of injury with a graded excitotoxic insult and ensuing chronic medial septal damage in the rat brain

Brain damage caused by an acute injury depends on the initial severity of the injury and the time elapsed after the injury. To determine whether these two variables activate common mechanisms, we compared the response of the rat medial septum to insult with a graded series of concentrations of a-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole propionic acid (AMPA) with the time-course effects of a low dose of AMPA. For this purpose we conducted a dose-response study at concentrations of AMPA between 0.27 and 10.8 nmol to measure atrophy of the septal area, losses of cholinergic and GABAergic neurons, astroglial and microglial reactions, and calcification. Cholinergic neurons, whose loss paralleled the degree of septal atrophy produced by AMPA, are more sensitive than GABAergic neurons to the injury produced by AMPA. At doses of AMPA above 2.7 nmol, calcification and the degree of microglial reaction increased only in the GABAergic region of the septal area, whereas atrophy and neuronal loss reached a plateau. We chose the 2.7-nmol dose of AMPA to determine how these parameters were modified between 4 days and 6 months after injection. We found that atrophy and neuronal loss increased progressively through the 6-month study period, whereas astrogliosis ceased to be observed after 1 month, and calcium precipitates were never detected. We conclude that septal damage does not increase with the intensity of an excitotoxic insult. Rather, it progresses continuously after the insult. Because these two situations involve different mechanisms, short-term paradigms are inappropriate for interpreting the pathogenic mechanisms responsible for long-term neurodegenerative processes.

Circulating progenitor cells during exercise, muscle electro-stimulation and intermittent hypobaric hypoxia in patients with traumatic brain injury. A pilot study

BACKGROUND: Circulating progenitor cells (CPC) treatments may have great potential for the recovery of neurons and brain function. OBJECTIVE: To increase and maintain CPC with a program of exercise, muscle electro-stimulation (ME) and/or intermittent-hypobaric-hypoxia (IHH), and also to study the possible improvement in physical or psychological functioning of participants with Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI). METHODS: Twenty-one participants. Four groups: exercise and ME group (EEG), cycling group (CyG), IHH and ME group (HEG) and control group (CG). Psychological and physical stress tests were carried out. CPC were measured in blood several times during the protocol. RESULTS: Psychological tests did not change. In the physical stress tests the VO2 uptake increased in the EEG and the CyG, and the maximal tolerated workload increased in the HEG. CPC levels increased in the last three weeks in EEG, but not in CyG, CG and HEG. CONCLUSIONS: CPC levels increased in the last three weeks of the EEG program, but not in the other groups and we did not detect performed psychological test changes in any group. The detected aerobic capacity or workload improvement must be beneficial for the patients who have suffered TBI, but exercise type and the mechanisms involved are not clear.

Anoxic-ischemic encephalopathy: association of predictors with the vital and functional prognosis of patients

Improve the prediction of the vital and functional prognosis of comatose patients suffering from anoxic-ischemic encephalopathy after successful resuscitation from a cardiac arrest, addmitted to the Intensive Care and Coronary Units of the Dr. Josep Trueta Hospital, based on clinical, neurophysiological and biochemical results.The results of these different tests, revised and combined all together, will improve the prediction of the patients' prognosis, leading to an accurate vital and functional outcome, as they only have been studied separately so far. Anoxia is the third most frequent cause of coma, and the most common cause of post-anoxic coma in adults is the cardiac arrest. The incidence of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury is not well known, but it is certain that cardiac arrest, the most common cause of post-anoxic coma, affects approximately 24000 to 50000 Spanish people every year, most of them occuring out of the hospital. A cardiac arrest is the abrupt cessation of normal circulation of the blood due to failure of the heart to contract effectively during systole. It is different from, but may be caused by, a heart attack or myocardial infarction, where blood flow to the still-beating heart is interrupted. Arrested blood circulation prevents delivery of oxygen to all parts of the body. Cerebral hypoxia, or lack of oxygen supply to the brain, causes victims to lose consciousness and to stop normal breathing, although agonal breathing may still occur. Brain injury is likely if cardiac arrest is untreated for more than five minutes

Prediction of Antibacterial Activity from Physicochemical Properties of Antimicrobial Peptides

Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible correlation of these with the in vivo onset of activity have only recently been proposed. In addition, such thresholds observed in model membranes occur at local peptide concentrations close to full membrane coverage. In this work we fully develop an interaction model of antimicrobial peptides with biological membranes; by exploring the consequences of the underlying partition formalism we arrive at a relationship that provides antibacterial activity prediction from two biophysical parameters: the affinity of the peptide to the membrane and the critical bound peptide to lipid ratio. A straightforward and robust method to implement this relationship, with potential application to high-throughput screening approaches, is presented and tested. In addition, disruptive thresholds in model membranes and the onset of antibacterial peptide activity are shown to occur over the same range of locally bound peptide concentrations (10 to 100 mM), which conciliates the two types of observations

Reduced ceria nanofilms from structure prediction

Experimentally, Ce2O3 films are used to study cerium oxide in its fully or partially reduced state, as present in many applications. We have explored the space of low energy Ce2O3 nanofilms using structure prediction and density functional calculations, yielding more than 30 distinct nanofilm structures. First, our results help to rationalize the roles of thermodynamics and kinetics in the preparation of reduced ceria nanofilms with different bulk crystalline structures (e.g. A-type or bixbyite) depending on the support used. Second, we predict a novel, as yet experimentally unresolved, nanofilm which has a structure that does not correspond to any previously reported bulk A2B3 phase and which has an energetic stability between that of A-type and bixbyite. To assist identification and fabrication of this new Ce2O3 nanofilm we calculate some observable properties and propose supports for its epitaxial growth.

Determinants of the decision to appeal against motor bodily injury settlements awarded by Spanish trial courts

Automobile bodily injury disputes represent one of the main causes of litigation faced by Spanish Courts. In this paper a multinomial model is implemented to analyse which factors determine the decision to appeal against the verdicts of trial courts. Use of a dataset of motor insurance claims revealed differences between the determinants of a claimant’s decision to appeal and those of insurers. Among other results it is shown that discrepancies regarding the permanent disability sustained affect the insurer’s decision to appeal. In contrast, the claimant pays more attention to differences in the stated temporary disability. Conclusions are drawn regarding which factors could reduce the percentage of appealed cases.