Estimating Bayesian decision problems with heterogeneous priors

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise andpreferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decisionmaking. In this paper we propose a new channel through which we can empirically identify expertise and preference parameters by using variation in decisionsover heterogeneous priors. Relative to existing estimation approaches, our \Prior-Based Identification" extends the possible environments which can be estimated,and also substantially improves the accuracy and precision of estimates in thoseenvironments which can be estimated using existing methods.

Book vs. fair value accounting in banking and intertemporal smoothing

The aim of this paper is to examine the pros and cons of book and fair value accounting from the perspective of the theory of banking. We consider the implications of the two accounting methods in an overlapping generations environment. As observed by Allen and Gale(1997), in an overlapping generation model, banks have a role as intergenerational connectors as they allow for intertemporal smoothing. Our main result is that when dividends depend on profits, book value ex ante dominates fair value, as it provides better intertemporal smoothing. This is in contrast with the standard view that states that, fair value yields a better allocation as it reflects the real opportunity cost of assets. Banking regulation play an important role by providing the right incentives for banks to smooth intertemporal consumption whereas market discipline improves intratemporal efficiency.

Optimal negligence rule under limited liability

We study the standard economic model of unilateral accidents, in its simplest form, assumingthat the injurers have limited assets.We identify a second-best optimal rule that selects as duecare the minimum of first-best care, and a level of care that takes into account the wealth ofthe injurer. We show that such a rule in fact maximizes the precautionary effort by a potentialinjurer. The idea is counterintuitive: Being softer on an injurer, in terms of the required level ofcare, actually improves the incentives to take care when he is potentially insolvent. We extendthe basic result to an entire population of potentially insolvent injurers, and find that the optimalgeneral standards of care do depend on wealth, and distribution of income. We also show theconditions for the result that higher income levels in a given society call for higher levels of carefor accidents.

Contracting externalities and multiple equilibria in sectors: Theory and evidence

We consider an economy where the production technology has constantreturns to scale but where in the descentralized equilibrium thereare aggregate increasing returns to scale. The result follows froma positive contracting externality among firms. If a firms issurrounded by more firms, employees have more opportunitiesoutside their own firm. This improves employees' incentives toinvest in the presence of ex post renegotiation at the firm level,at not cost. Our leading result is that if a region is sparselypopulated or if the degree of development in the region is lowenough, there are multiple equilibria in the level of sectorialemployment. From the theoretical model we derive a non-linearfirst-order censored difference equation for sectoral employment.Our results are strongly consistent with the multiple equilibriahypothesis and the existence of a sectoral critical scale (belowwich the sector follows a delocation process). The scale of theregions' population and the degree of development reduce thecritical scale of the sector.

The informational value of incumbency

This paper proposes an argument that explains incumbency advantage without recurring to the collective irresponsibility of legislatures. For that purpose, we exploit the informational value of incumbency: incumbency confers voters information about governing politicians not available from challengers. Because there are many reasons for high reelection rates different from incumbency status, we propose a measure of incumbency advantage that improves the use of pure reelection success. We also study the relationship between incumbency advantage and ideological and selection biases. An important implication of our analysis is that the literature linking incumbency and legislature irresponsibility most likely provides an overestimation of the latter.

Implementing TURF analysis through binary linear programming

This paper introduces the approach of using Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency analysis (TURF) to design a product line through a binary linear programming model. This improves the efficiency of the search for the solution to the problem compared to the algorithms that have been used to date. The results obtained through our exact algorithm are presented, and this method shows to be extremely efficient both in obtaining optimal solutions and in computing time for very large instances of the problem at hand. Furthermore, the proposed technique enables the model to be improved in order to overcome the main drawbacks presented by TURF analysis in practice.

Job creation under liquidity constraints: The Spanish case

This paper shows that liquidity constraints restrict jobcreation even when labor markets are flexible. In a dynamicmodel of labor demand, I show that in an environment of imperfect capital and imperfect labor markets, firms usetemporary contracts to relax financial constraints. Evidence for the predictions of the model is presented using Spanish data from the CBBE (Central de Balances del Banco de España - Balance Sheet data from the Bank of Spain). It is shown that firms substitute temporary laborfor permanent one and use less debt as their financial position improves. In particular, it is rejected that Spanish firms operate in an environment of free capital markets and of no labor adjustment costs. The labor reform of 1984, which created temporary contracts, implied to some extent a relaxation of liquidity constraints.Accordingly, firms used these contracts more extensivelyand used less debt; however, as capital markets continueto be imperfect, permanent job creation continues to beslow. Consequently, relaxation of liquidity constraints should also be part of a job creation strategy.

Firm investment in imperfect capital markets: A structural estimation

We set up a dynamic model of firm investment in which liquidity constraintsenter explicity into the firm's maximization problem. The optimal policyrules are incorporated into a maximum likelihood procedure which estimatesthe structural parameters of the model. Investment is positively related tothe firm's internal financial position when the firm is relatively poor. This relationship disappears for wealthy firms, which can reach theirdesired level of investment. Borrowing is an increasing function of financial position for poor firms. This relationship is reversed as a firm's financial position improves, and large firms hold little debt.Liquidity constrained firms may be unused credits lines and the capacity toinvest further if they desire. However the fear that liquidity constraintswill become binding in the future induces them to invest only when internalresources increase.We estimate the structural parameters of the model and use them to quantifythe importance of liquidity constraints on firms' investment. We find thatliquidity constraints matter significantly for the investment decisions of firms. If firms can finance investment by issuing fresh equity, rather than with internal funds or debt, average capital stock is almost 35% higher overa period of 20 years. Transitory shocks to internal funds have a sustained effect on the capital stock. This effect lasts for several periods and ismore persistent for small firms than for large firms. A 10% negative shock to firm fundamentals reduces the capital stock of firms which face liquidityconstraints by almost 8% over a period as opposed to only 3.5% for firms which do not face these constraints.

The choice of titling system in land

This paper analyzes the choice of the socially optimal titling systemassuming rational individual choices about recording, assurance andregistration decisions. It focuses on the enforcement of propertyrights on land under private titling and the two existing publictitling systems, recording and registration. When the reduction in theexpected costs of eviction compensates the higher cost of initialregistration, it is more efficient to introduce a registration systemrather than a recording system. The development of private "titleassurance" improves the standing of recording as compared toregistration. This improvement depends, however, on the efficiency ofthe assurance technology and, also, on corrective taxation that isneeded to align individual optimization, which disregards the transferelement in eviction, with social objectives.

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life,human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources forEarthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over thecourse of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the formof a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capabilityto manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves theexisting knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system willat first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursormonitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarningsystem. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine,integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing andnew proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, faultmaps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the maincomponents of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precisionin the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It isbased in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-eventdamage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of ageographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs toprovide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, suchas the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included.

Xarxa digital multimèdia de pantalles i kioscs interactius

Internet s’ha alçat en poc temps com el mitjà més utilitzat pels turistes per a planificar, organitzar i comprar un viatge, és per això que es proposa donar les mateixes facilitats en el destí. La Publicitat Dinàmica o “Digital Signage” és un nou servei de comunicació que consisteix en un conjunt de tecnologies i aplicacions informàtiques que permeten emetre missatges multimèdia i comunicar-se així d’una manera innovadora amb el públic objectiu de cada empresa, si s’afegeix un sistema independent, multimèdia i interactiu que pot utilitzar-se per a proporcionar informació i/o permetre la realització de transaccions es potencia al màxim el servei. D’aquesta manera es proposa crear una Xarxa Digital Multimèdia de Kioscs Interactius recolzats amb una pantalla de plasma per a la tecnologia Digital Signage. La ubicació escollida estratègicament és en un dels punts de major afluència turística, tal com l’entrada dels hotels. Així es tracta de crear circuits tancats en àrees geogràfiques on es troben els principals nuclis turístics de Mallorca. La possibilitat d’accedir a segments de població altament interessants per al producte o servei es multiplica al ser una manera fàcil, eficaç i altament suggestiva de promocionar el què es pretén. Un avantatge és la simplicitat de la infraestructura tecnològica que es necessita, el dispositiu mitjançant el qual es visualitzaran els missatges serà una pantalla de plasma convencional, i un terminal de punt de venda instal.lat en un lloc de pas. Cada mòdul està connectat a la xarxa ADSL mitjançant un servidor local a Internet. La connexió a la xarxa és imprescindible per a que el manteniment i actualització dels continguts es puguin efectuar remotament. L’objectiu principal d’aquest treball és estudiar la viabilitat de la implantació de la xarxa, mitjançant la realització d’un estudi de mercat on s’analitzen els grups claus per a la implantació: els hotelers, la indústria turística i el Govern Balear. S’identifiquen els beneficis que aportarà al nou servei i les repercussions que tendrà la seva instal.lació. Entre els resultats més destacats d’aquest estudi cal remarcar l’acceptació que ha tengut la idea entre els hotelers entrevistats i la resposta positiva de la indústria turística. Es reconeix: una millora de la imatge del sector, l’ús com a eina de promoció turística pel Govern, i la contribució a la sostenibilitat econòmica pel fet que augmenta la competitivitat de les empreses i això millora la qualitat del servei.

Percepció de dificultat i esforç en la mobilització de persones dependents, en el seu entorn domiciliari, per part dels seus cuidadors, abans i després de la utilització de llençols lliscants

Les persones amb dependència necessiten ajuda en la mobilització al llit, que suposa un esforç per a la persona cuidadora. La percepció de dificultat en dur a terme aquestes tasques pot afectar negativament la qualitat de vida de les persones cuidadores i també la de les persones dependents. L’objectiu d’aquest estudi va ser investigar si la utilització de superfícies de reducció de la fricció (tipus llençols lliscants) redueix la dificultat percebuda per les persones cuidadores i les persones dependents en la mobilització al llit. Mètodes: es va dur a terme un estudi quasi experimental a domicili en una mostra seleccionada a conveniència de 12 persones amb dependència i els seus cuidadors en diverses localitats. Es va avaluar la percepció de dificultat en la mobilització per part dels cuidadors i les persones dependents abans i després d’una intervenció formativa simultània a la utilització de llençols lliscants. Resultats: el perfil del cuidador és el d’una dona de mitjana edat amb una relació filial amb la persona dependent i sense formació específica en mètodes de mobilització de persones dependents. El perfil de la persona dependent és el d’una dona major de 80 anys amb una gran dependència que necessita ajuda de la persona que la cuida en les maniobres de redreçament i trasllat al llit. En una escala de percepció de la dificultat de 0 a 10, les mitjanes de les puntuacions observades en els cuidadors abans de la intervenció van ser de 6,9 (DE: 3,1) en el redreçament cap amunt i de 7,1 (DE: 3,1) en el trasllat lateral; després de la intervenció van ser d’1,25 (DE: 1,8) en el redreçament cap amunt i d’1,45 (DE: 1,6) en la mobilització lateral. En la mateixa escala, les mitjanes de les puntuacions observades en les persones dependents abans de la intervenció van ser de 8,6 (DE: 2,3) en el redreçament cap amunt i de 8,6 (DE: 2,3) en el trasllat cap als costats, i després de la intervenció van ser de 2 (DE: 2,6) en els redreçaments cap amunt i de 2 (DE: 2,6) en els trasllats cap als costats. Comparant les puntuacions d’abans i després de la intervenció, observem que la dificultat percebuda per part dels cuidadors de les persones dependents va disminuir de manera significativa (p & 0,001); en les persones dependents també va disminuir, però la disminució no va arribar a ser significativa (p = 0,057). Conclusions: els resultats observats mostren que la utilització de llençols lliscants millora la qualitat de vida dels cuidadors, mesurada per la percepció de la dificultat en les maniobres de mobilització al llit. Així mateix, la seva utilització pot contribuir a un millor envelliment actiu. Caldria fer estudis que permetin quantificar l’esforç físic necessari i el cost-benefici que suposa la utilització d’aquests dispositius.