57 resultados para Future Scenarios.
Resumo:
In this paper I show that employees tend to procrastinate when they are expected to decide whether or not they would like to save using the defined contribution pension scheme offered by their employer. By auto-enrolling the employees or asking them to decide before a given deadline, employers can mitigate some of the problems caused by employee procrastination. However both of these mechanisms present their own problems, caused by default stickiness and other issues, so I discuss how employers can decide which is the right mechanism to use depending on the characteristics of their employees, and how to minimize the problems these mechanisms can cause.
Resumo:
View of Ground Zero showing destroyed buildings and those with major structural damage (viewed from southwest).
Resumo:
To compare the cost and effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) versus combined oral contraception (COC) and progestogens (PROG) in first-line treatment of dysfunctional uterine bleeding (DUB) in Spain. STUDY DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis of LNG-IUS, COC and PROG was carried out using a Markov model based on clinical data from the literature and expert opinion. The population studied were women with a previous diagnosis of idiopathic heavy menstrual bleeding. The analysis was performed from the National Health System perspective, discounting both costs and future effects at 3%. In addition, a sensitivity analysis (univariate and probabilistic) was conducted. RESULTS: The results show that the greater efficacy of LNG-IUS translates into a gain of 1.92 and 3.89 symptom-free months (SFM) after six months of treatment versus COC and PROG, respectively (which represents an increase of 33% and 60% of symptom-free time). Regarding costs, LNG-IUS produces savings of 174.2-309.95 and 230.54-577.61 versus COC and PROG, respectively, after 6 months-5 years. Apart from cost savings and gains in SFM, quality-adjusted life months (QALM) are also favourable to LNG-IUS in all scenarios, with a range of gains between 1 and 2 QALM compared to COC and PROG. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that first-line use of the LNG-IUS is the dominant therapeutic option (less costly and more effective) in comparison with first-line use of COC or PROG for the treatment of DUB in Spain. LNG-IUS as first line is also the option that provides greatest health-related quality of life to patients.
Resumo:
Peer-reviewed
Resumo:
Extended abstract.
Resumo:
Les plantes transgèniques són una part integral de l’agricultura contemporània. Durant l’any 2006 més de noranta milions d’hectàrees de plantes transgèniques van ser cultivades en vint-i-un països. Des de la comercialització de la primera planta transgènica el 1996 els nivells d’adopció d’aquests cultius han augmentat anualment amb percentatges de dos dígits. El desenvolupament i la comercialització de les plantes transgèniques van lligats estretament al comerç mundial, a la globalització, a la disponibilitat de suficient menjar, a la protecció del medi ambient i del consumidor i a la propietat intel·lectual. En aquest article exposem els avenços més recents i les tendències actuals en el desenvolupament dels cultius transgènics i de la seva utilització. També ens fem ressò d’alguns assumptes no científics que s’han de solucionar abans que aquests cultius arribin al màxim del seu potencial, proporcionant una agricultura més sostenible i ecològica. Finalment, ressaltarem la importància de com les plantes transgèniques poden contribuir en la disponibilitat de menjar i en la millora de la pobresa en els països en vies de desenvolupament.
Resumo:
Since 2001 several outbreaks of a new disease associated with Border disease virus (BDV) infection have caused important declines in Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica) populations in the Pyrenees. The goal of this study was to analyze the post-outbreak BDV epidemiology in the first two areas affected by disease with the aim to establish if the infection has become endemic. We also investigated if BDV infected wild and domestic ruminants sharing habitat with chamois. Unexpectedly, we found different epidemiological scenarios in each population. Since the disease outbreaks, some chamois populations recuperated quickly, while others did not recover as expected. In chamois from the first areas, prevalence was high (73.47%) and constant throughout the whole study period and did not differ between chamois born before and after the BDV outbreak; in all, BDV was detected by RT-PCR in six chamois. In the other areas, prevalence was lower (52.79%) and decreased during the study period; as well, prevalence was significantly lower in chamois born after the disease outbreak. No BDV were detected in this population. A comparative virus neutralisation test performed with four BDV strains and one Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) strain showed that all the chamois had BDV-specific antibodies. Pestivirus antibodies were detected in all the rest of analyzed species, with low prevalence values in wild ruminants and moderate values in domestic ruminants. No viruses were detected in these species. These results confirm the hypothesis that outbreaks of BDV infection only affect the Pyrenean chamois, although other wild ruminants can occasionally be infected. In conclusion, two different scenarios have appeared since the first border disease outbreaks in Pyrenean chamois: on the one hand frequent BDV circulation with possible negative impact on population dynamics in some areas and on the other, lack of virus circulation and quick recovery of the chamois population.
Resumo:
En el presente estudio hacemos una revisión del estado de conservación y las tendencias poblacionales de la codorniz común (Coturnix coturnix) desde 1900 hasta nuestros días. Algunos de los datos de los que disponemos son contradictorios con respecto al estado de la especie, que presenta ciertas características que dificultan el poder proporcionar estimas poblacionales fiables. Datos recientes sugieren claramente, tanto a escala local como a escala transnacional, que las poblaciones atlánticas de codorniz común han permanecido estables en las dos últimas décadas y que la práctica de liberar codornices criadas en granjas (híbridas con la codorniz japonesa, Coturnix japonica) con finalidades cinegéticas, no afectan significativamente a nuestras estimas. Por otra parte, los complejos patrones de desplazamiento de esta especie requieren especial atención. En este sentido, el análisis de recuperaciones de anillas puede aportar información relevante, especialmente de los movimientos nomádicos de codornices a la búsqueda de hábitats adecuados, tras la destrucción de los cultivos invernales de cereales debido a la siega. Así, al desarrollar un modelo de distribución de cría para esta especie, se debe incorporar continuamente información actualizada de los cambios estacionales de hábitat y clima, con el fin de obtener unas predicciones óptimas. En este sentido, por ejemplo, la inclusión de datos quincenales de índices de vegetación en los modelos de distribución ha dado muy buenos resultados. La obtención de predicciones fiables de los cambios de la distribución de la especie y de sus desplazamientos durante la estación de cría puede ser muy útil para un mejor conocimiento del estado de conservación y las tendencias poblacionales de la especie, así como para el diseño de futuras medidas de gestión.
Resumo:
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of business exits on future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity at the macroeconomic level. Design/methodology/approach: This research uses the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data for 41 countries and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to carry out the analysis. The paper differentiates the effect of the two components of total entrepreneurial activity, and the two motivations for it – opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. Findings: The results presented here show a positive and significant effect of the coefficient associated with exits in all models. This means that the levels of entrepreneurial activity exceed business exits. The robustness of the models are tested, including other variables such as the fear of failure, the Gross Domestic Product, role models, entrepreneurial skills and the unemployment variables. The main hypothesis which stated that at national level business exits imply greater rates of opportunity-driven entrepreneurship is corroborated. Originality/value: One would expect that unemployment rates would imply higher levels of necessity entrepreneurship. However, results show that unemployment rates do in fact favour opportunity entrepreneurship levels. This could be due to those government policies that are aimed at promoting entrepreneurship through the capitalization of unemployment to be totally invested in a new start-up. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first panel data study to link previous exit rates to future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity. Keywords: Entrepreneurship, business exits, social values, industrial organization Paper type: Research paper
Resumo:
To compare the cost and effectiveness of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) versus combined oral contraception (COC) and progestogens (PROG) in first-line treatment of dysfunctional uterine bleeding (DUB) in Spain. STUDY DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis of LNG-IUS, COC and PROG was carried out using a Markov model based on clinical data from the literature and expert opinion. The population studied were women with a previous diagnosis of idiopathic heavy menstrual bleeding. The analysis was performed from the National Health System perspective, discounting both costs and future effects at 3%. In addition, a sensitivity analysis (univariate and probabilistic) was conducted. RESULTS: The results show that the greater efficacy of LNG-IUS translates into a gain of 1.92 and 3.89 symptom-free months (SFM) after six months of treatment versus COC and PROG, respectively (which represents an increase of 33% and 60% of symptom-free time). Regarding costs, LNG-IUS produces savings of 174.2-309.95 and 230.54-577.61 versus COC and PROG, respectively, after 6 months-5 years. Apart from cost savings and gains in SFM, quality-adjusted life months (QALM) are also favourable to LNG-IUS in all scenarios, with a range of gains between 1 and 2 QALM compared to COC and PROG. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that first-line use of the LNG-IUS is the dominant therapeutic option (less costly and more effective) in comparison with first-line use of COC or PROG for the treatment of DUB in Spain. LNG-IUS as first line is also the option that provides greatest health-related quality of life to patients.
Resumo:
Freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity are presently seriously threatened by global development and population growth, leading to increases in nutrient inputs and intensification of eutrophication-induced problems in receiving fresh waters, particularly in lakes. Climate change constitutes another threat exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication and species migration and loss. Unequivocal evidence of climate change impacts is still highly fragmented despite the intensive research, in part due to the variety and uncertainty of climate models and underlying emission scenarios but also due to the different approaches applied to study its effects. We first describe the strengths and weaknesses of the multi-faceted approaches that are presently available for elucidating the effects of climate change in lakes, including space-for-time substitution, time series, experiments, palaeoecology and modelling. Reviewing combined results from studies based on the various approaches, we describe the likely effects of climate changes on biological communities, trophic dynamics and the ecological state of lakes. We further discuss potential mitigation and adaptation measures to counteract the effects of climate change on lakes and, finally, we highlight some of the future challenges that we face to improve our capacity for successful prediction.