Fluid dynamical prediction of changed v1-flow at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Substantial collective flow is observed in collisions between lead nuclei at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) as evidenced by the azimuthal correlations in the transverse momentum distributions of the produced particles. Our calculations indicate that the global v1-flow, which at RHIC peaked at negative rapidities (named third flow component or antiflow), now at LHC is going to turn toward forward rapidities (to the same side and direction as the projectile residue). Potentially this can provide a sensitive barometer to estimate the pressure and transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma. Our calculations also take into account the initial state center-of-mass rapidity fluctuations, and demonstrate that these are crucial for v1 simulations. In order to better study the transverse momentum flow dependence we suggest a new"symmetrized" vS1(pt) function, and we also propose a new method to disentangle global v1 flow from the contribution generated by the random fluctuations in the initial state. This will enhance the possibilities of studying the collective Global v1 flow both at the STAR Beam Energy Scan program and at LHC.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Prediction of Antibacterial Activity from Physicochemical Properties of Antimicrobial Peptides

Consensus is gathering that antimicrobial peptides that exert their antibacterial action at the membrane level must reach a local concentration threshold to become active. Studies of peptide interaction with model membranes do identify such disruptive thresholds but demonstrations of the possible correlation of these with the in vivo onset of activity have only recently been proposed. In addition, such thresholds observed in model membranes occur at local peptide concentrations close to full membrane coverage. In this work we fully develop an interaction model of antimicrobial peptides with biological membranes; by exploring the consequences of the underlying partition formalism we arrive at a relationship that provides antibacterial activity prediction from two biophysical parameters: the affinity of the peptide to the membrane and the critical bound peptide to lipid ratio. A straightforward and robust method to implement this relationship, with potential application to high-throughput screening approaches, is presented and tested. In addition, disruptive thresholds in model membranes and the onset of antibacterial peptide activity are shown to occur over the same range of locally bound peptide concentrations (10 to 100 mM), which conciliates the two types of observations

Evidence for coseismic events of recurrent prehistoric deformation along the Alhama de Murcia fault, southeastern Spain

The Alhama de Murcia fault is a 85 km long oblique-slip fault, and is related to historical and instrumental seismic activity. A paleoseismic analysis of the Lorca-Totana sector of the fault containing MSK I=VIII historical earthquakes was made in order to identify and quantify its seismic potential. We present 1) the results of the neotectonic, structural and geomorphological analyses and, 2) the results of trenching. In the study area, the Alhama de Murcia fault forms a depressed corridor between two strands, the northwestern fault with morphological and structural features of a reverse component of slip, bounding the La Tercia range to the South, and the southeastern fault strand with evidence of sinistral oblique strike-slip movement. The offset along this latter fault trapped the sediments in transit from the La Tercia range towards the Guadalentín depression. The most recent of these sediments are arranged in three generations of alluvial fans and terraces. The first two trenches were dug in the most recent sediments across the southeastern fault strand. The results indicate a coseismic reverse fault deformation that involved the sedimentary sequence up to the intermediate alluvial fan and the Holocene terrace deposits. The sedimentary evolution observed in the trenches suggests an event of temporary damming of the Colmenar creek drainage to the South due to uplifting of the hanging wall during coseismic activation of the fault. Trench, structural and sedimentological features provide evidence of at least three coseismic events, which occurred after 125,000 yr. The minimum vertical slip rate along the fault is 0.06 mm/yr and the average recurrence period should not exceed 40,000 yr in accordance with the results obtained by fan topographic profiling. Further absolute dating is ongoing to constrain these estimates.

Active tectonics of the Alhama de Murcia fault, Betic Cordillera, Spain

We present an overview of the knowledge of the structure and the seismic behavior of the Alhama de Murcia Fault (AMF). We utilize a fault traces map created from a LIDAR DEM combined with the geodynamic setting, the analysis of the morphology, the distribution of seismicity, the geological information from E 1:50000 geological maps and the available paleoseismic data to describe the recent activity of the AMF. We discuss the importance of uncertainties regarding the structure and kinematics of the AMF applied to the interpretation and spatial correlation of the paleoseismic data. In particular, we discuss the nature of the faults dipping to the SE (antithetic to the main faults of the AMF) in several segments that have been studied in the previous paleoseismic works. A special chapter is dedicated to the analysis of the tectonic source of the Lorca 2011 earthquake that took place in between two large segments of the fault.

Reduced ceria nanofilms from structure prediction

Experimentally, Ce2O3 films are used to study cerium oxide in its fully or partially reduced state, as present in many applications. We have explored the space of low energy Ce2O3 nanofilms using structure prediction and density functional calculations, yielding more than 30 distinct nanofilm structures. First, our results help to rationalize the roles of thermodynamics and kinetics in the preparation of reduced ceria nanofilms with different bulk crystalline structures (e.g. A-type or bixbyite) depending on the support used. Second, we predict a novel, as yet experimentally unresolved, nanofilm which has a structure that does not correspond to any previously reported bulk A2B3 phase and which has an energetic stability between that of A-type and bixbyite. To assist identification and fabrication of this new Ce2O3 nanofilm we calculate some observable properties and propose supports for its epitaxial growth.

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

SQualTrack: A Tool for Robust Fault Detection

One of the techniques used to detect faults in dynamic systems is analytical redundancy. An important difficulty in applying this technique to real systems is dealing with the uncertainties associated with the system itself and with the measurements. In this paper, this uncertainty is taken into account by the use of intervals for the parameters of the model and for the measurements. The method that is proposed in this paper checks the consistency between the system's behavior, obtained from the measurements, and the model's behavior; if they are inconsistent, then there is a fault. The problem of detecting faults is stated as a quantified real constraint satisfaction problem, which can be solved using the modal interval analysis (MIA). MIA is used because it provides powerful tools to extend the calculations over real functions to intervals. To improve the results of the detection of the faults, the simultaneous use of several sliding time windows is proposed. The result of implementing this method is semiqualitative tracking (SQualTrack), a fault-detection tool that is robust in the sense that it does not generate false alarms, i.e., if there are false alarms, they indicate either that the interval model does not represent the system adequately or that the interval measurements do not represent the true values of the variables adequately. SQualTrack is currently being used to detect faults in real processes. Some of these applications using real data have been developed within the European project advanced decision support system for chemical/petrochemical manufacturing processes and are also described in this paper