'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Identifying the socioeconomic determinants of crime in Spanish provinces

In this paper we study, having as theoretical reference the economic model of crime (Becker, 1968; Ehrlich, 1973), which are the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of crime in Spain paying attention on the role of provincial peculiarities. We estimate a crime equation using a panel dataset of Spanish provinces (NUTS3) for the period 1993 to 1999 employing the GMMsystem estimator. Empirical results suggest that lagged crime rate and clear-up rate are correlated to all typologies of crime rate considered. Property crimes are better explained by socioeconomic variables (GDP per capita, GDP growth rate and percentage of population with high school and university degree), while demographic factors reveal important and significant influences, in particular for crimes against the person. These results are obtained using an instrumental variable approach that takes advantage of the dynamic properties of our dataset to control for both measurement errors in crime data and joint endogeneity of the explanatory variables

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Disturbance, age and size structure in stands of Pinus uncinata Ram

Las estructuras de tamaño y edad de dos bosques monoespecificos subalpinos de Pinus uncinata en el Pirineo, fueron estudiadas e interpretadas introduciendo una clasificación sencilla de los árboles según la exposición de su copa a la radiación solar directa. Ambas poblaciones muestran distribuciones de diámetro de J invertida irregulares, cuya Interpretación es incierta. Por el contrario, la estructura de edad en ambos bosques muestra picos visibles, los cuales, si se tienen en cuenta la exposición de la copa, indican que la regeneración se produce en claros del bosque. Se analizaron las series de anillos de crecimiento de los árboles de cada sitio para reconstruir su historia reciente de perturbaciones Identificando los incrementos bruscos del crecimiento. El régimen de perturbaciones en los dos bosques es diferente, y en ambos casos muestra un efecto madelador análogo sobre la estructura de edad. Se concluye que P. uncinata se comporta como una especie heliófila que puede formar bosques maduros o multicohorte bajo determinados regímenes de perturbaciones suaves, gracias a su capacidad para iniciar la regeneración en claros pequeños. Este proceso tiene lugar en un lapso de tiempo corto después de la incidencia de las perturbaciones.

The Upper Oligocene of Montgat (Catalan Coastal Ranges, Spain): new age constraints to the western Mediterranean Basin opening

The Oligocene deposits of Montgat are integrated in a small outcrop made up of Cenozoic and Mesozoic rocks located in the Garraf-Montnegre horst, close to the major Barcelona fault. The Oligocene of Montgat consists of detrital sediments of continental origin mainly deposited in alluvial fan environments; these deposits are folded and affected by thrusts and strike-slip faults. They can be divided in two lithostratigraphic units separated by a minor southwest-directed thrust: (i) the Turó de Montgat Unit composed of litharenites and lithorudites with high contents of quartz, feldspar, plutonic and limestone rock fragments; and (ii) the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit composed of calcilitharenites and calcilithorudites with high contents of dolosparite and dolomicrite rock fragments. The petrological composition of both units indicates that sediments were derived from the erosion of Triassic (Buntsandstein, Muschelkalk and Keuper facies), Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous rocks (Barremian to Aptian in age). Stratigraphic and petrological data suggest that these units correspond to two coalescent alluvial fans with a source area located northwestwards in the adjoining Collserola and Montnegre inner areas. Micromammal fossils (Archaeomys sp.) found in a mudstone layer of the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit assign a Chattian age (Late Oligocene) to the studied materials. Thus, the Montgat deposits are the youngest dated deposits affected by the contractional deformation that led to the development of the Catalan Intraplate Chain. Taking into account that the oldest syn-rift deposits in the Catalan Coastal Ranges are Aquitanian in age, this allows to precise that the change from a compressive to an extensional regime in this area took place during latest Oligocene-earliest Aquitanian times. This age indicates that the onset of crustal extension related to the opening of the western Mediterranean Basin started in southern France during latest Eocene-early Oligocene and propagated southwestward, affecting the Catalan Coastal Ranges and the northeastern part of the Valencia trough during the latest Chattian-earliest Aquitanian times.

The Upper Oligocene of Montgat (Catalan Coastal Ranges, Spain): new age constraints to the western Mediterranean Basin opening

The Oligocene deposits of Montgat are integrated in a small outcrop made up of Cenozoic and Mesozoic rocks located in the Garraf-Montnegre horst, close to the major Barcelona fault. The Oligocene of Montgat consists of detrital sediments of continental origin mainly deposited in alluvial fan environments; these deposits are folded and affected by thrusts and strike-slip faults. They can be divided in two lithostratigraphic units separated by a minor southwest-directed thrust: (i) the Turó de Montgat Unit composed of litharenites and lithorudites with high contents of quartz, feldspar, plutonic and limestone rock fragments; and (ii) the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit composed of calcilitharenites and calcilithorudites with high contents of dolosparite and dolomicrite rock fragments. The petrological composition of both units indicates that sediments were derived from the erosion of Triassic (Buntsandstein, Muschelkalk and Keuper facies), Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous rocks (Barremian to Aptian in age). Stratigraphic and petrological data suggest that these units correspond to two coalescent alluvial fans with a source area located northwestwards in the adjoining Collserola and Montnegre inner areas. Micromammal fossils (Archaeomys sp.) found in a mudstone layer of the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit assign a Chattian age (Late Oligocene) to the studied materials. Thus, the Montgat deposits are the youngest dated deposits affected by the contractional deformation that led to the development of the Catalan Intraplate Chain. Taking into account that the oldest syn-rift deposits in the Catalan Coastal Ranges are Aquitanian in age, this allows to precise that the change from a compressive to an extensional regime in this area took place during latest Oligocene-earliest Aquitanian times. This age indicates that the onset of crustal extension related to the opening of the western Mediterranean Basin started in southern France during latest Eocene-early Oligocene and propagated southwestward, affecting the Catalan Coastal Ranges and the northeastern part of the Valencia trough during the latest Chattian-earliest Aquitanian times.

La pretendida actualidad del debate entre L. Strauss y A. Kojève sobre las tiranías

La discusión sobre la naturaleza de la filosofía política encuentra en el comentario del Hierón de Jenofonte que hace Strauss, el posterior debate público con Kojève y la correspondencia privada entre ámbos, un lugar privilegiado para informar del objetivo que persigue Strauss y que tiene como eje principal la defensa de la concepción «clásica » de la filosofía, que debe defenderse de las acusaciones a las que se ve sometida desde las instancias del poder político. Paralelamente es una muestra clara de la posición divergente de Kojève al respecto, considerando la relación entre sabiduría y tiranía como la forma extrema de la relación entre filosofía y política.

Sobre la cuestión del método en el debate Modernidad-Postmodernidad

Se trata de indicar el distinto papel atribuido al método en la filosofía moderna y en la filosofía postmoderna. De cuestión nuclear pasa a ser «cuestión superada». En este escrito se argumenta la optimalidad de un pluralismo metodológico y, por lo tanto, de la conveniencia de revisar, por una parte, la tendencia moderna a la absolutización de un método y, por otra parte, el rechazo postmoderno de método y de fundamentación.

Lo “sobrenatural” se une al debate- las conexiones entre la política y la religiosidad en el caso

En el norte de Brasil, en el Estado de Maranhao, municipio de Codó, las relaciones nacidas en el campo de la religiosidad se ven reflejadas en el ámbito político y económico. Esta región, constituida en su mayoría por la población afrodescendiente, elaboró su manera propia de construir su vida social en el medio que se da a través del contacto con unos seres invisibles, llamados encantados. El nombre de culto practicado en la zona es Terecô y suele ser clasificado com una religiosidad afrobrasileña. Los practicantes de Terecò sufrían represalias por parte de las autoridades hasta la década de los 80 del siglo XX. Sin embargo, en las últimas décadas, el Terecô empezó ganar más visibilidad política y cumplir su papel propio en la lucha por los derechos ciudadanos de la población negra del municipio. Al mismo tiempo, las estructuras de poder fueron aprovechándose de esta conyuntura, estableciendo relaciones de proximidad con los principales líderes religiosos. El trabajo de campo se realiza en la zona rural del municipio de Codó, donde sin embargo existe una estrecha relación con el entorno urbano. Pasando desde la problemática de la construcción territorial y del grupo social por el proceso de cambios socioeconómicos, se quiere vislumbrar la importancia de los vínculos entre la religiosidad y la política en mantener el statu quo encontrado.