Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

Background: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69- 75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.

The effect of age at the first mating and herd size on the lifetime productivity of sows

The effect of age at the first mating and herd size were evaluated in the reference Spanish Databank (BDporc) of 37 698 sows born between 1991 and 1995 and with individual lifetime records. The data included dates of births at entrance and culling, first mating, repetitive mating and conception, first farrowing and weaning records. Individual records were validated before the analysis by screening them through a tolerance “filter” in order to eliminate the extreme values from the analysis. The total database of the sows was classified in 7 classes according to age at the first mating (< 210, 210–220, 221–230, 231–240, 241–250, 251–270, and > 270 days) and in 6 classes of herd size (< 200, 200–300, 301–400, 401–600, 601–800, and > 800 sows). The total number of litters and number of weaned piglets obtained from each sow during the lifetime production were significantly (P < 0.05) greater for gilts between 221 and 240 d of age at the first mating. There was a significant (P < 0.001) effect of the herd size on the reproductive performance of the sow, and the best performance was obtained with herds with 401 to 600 sows compared to < 200 or > 800 sow-herds. Furthermore, a significant (P < 0.001) interaction between age at the first mating and herd size was detected and can be associated with a particular pattern for the herd size class 401–600 sows with the best performances obtained for the sows first mated at less than 200 days. For the other herd sizes, the results indicated that sows mated for the first time at the right age, 221–240 days, are more productive, both in the number and size of the parities throughout lifetime production.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

Background: During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia.

Grain yield, carbon isotope discrimination and mineral content in mature kernels of barley under irrigated and rainfed conditions

The relationship between yield, carbon isotope discrimination and ash content in mature kernels was examined for a set of 13 barley (Hordeum vulgare) cultivars. Plants were grown under rainfed and well-irrigated conditions in a Mediterranean area. Water deficit caused a decrease in both grain yield and carbon isotope discrimination (Δ). The yield was positively related to Δ and negatively related to ash content, across genotypes within each treatment. However, whereas the correlation between yield and Δ was higher for the set of genotypes under well-irrigated (r=0.70, P<0.01) than under rainfed (r=0.42) conditions, the opposite occurred when yield and ash content were related, ie r=-0.38 under well-irrigated and r=-0.73, (P<0.01) under rainfed conditions. Carbon isotope discrimination and ash content together account for almost 60% of the variation in yield, in both conditions. There was no significant relationship (r=-0.15) between carbon isotope discrimination and ash content in well-irrigated plants, whereas in rainfed plants, this relationship, although significant (r=-0.54, P< 0.05), was weakly negative. The concentration of several mineral elements was measured in the same kernels. The mineral that correlated best with ash content, yield and A, was K. For yield and Δ, although the relationship with K followed the same pattern as the relationhip with ash content, the correlation coefficients were lower. Thus, mineral accumulation in mature kernels seems to be independent of transpiration efficiency. In fact, filling of grains takes place through the phloem pathway. The ash content in kernels is proposed as a complementary criterion, in addition to kernel Δ, to assess genotype differences in barley grain yield under rainfed conditions.

Meat characteristics of chickens from an F1 cross of two improved Spanish breeds depending on slaughter age

The present study analysed the meat characteristics of i) improved Castellana Negra chickens slaughtered at 18 weeks (CN-18) and ii) F1 crossbred chickens from improved Castellana Negra hens and improved Penedesenca Negra cocks (CNPN) slaughtered at 12 weeks and 18 weeks of age (young and adult animals, respectively). Purebred and crossbred specimens were compared at similar weights (CN-18 and CNPN-12) and ages (CN-18 and CNPN-18). The protein content of the meat was similar for the three types of animals; heavier animals (CNPN-18) had more fat than those slaughtered at lower weights (CNPN-12 and CN-18). Adults had a higher saturated fatty acid content and the young CNPN chickens had more monounsaturated fatty acids than CN chickens. In the CNPN adults, less water was lost during cooking, which is directly related to the juiciness of the meat. With regard to sensory analysis, a darker colour was observed in the meat as much as the internal fat of adult animals, in addition to greater colour uniformity. The meat of young CNPN birds was juicier, whereas that of the CN chickens was more fibrous. Therefore, we conclude that meat from CNPN chickens presents chemical, physical, and sensorial characteristics that make these animals a genetic base for alternative poultry production.

Invisible Environments: Old Age and its spaces

Despite the progressive ageing of a worldwide population, negative attitudes towards old age have proliferated thanks to cultural constructs and myths that, for decades, have presented old age as a synonym of decay, deterioration and loss. Moreover, even though every human being knows he/she will age and that ageing is a process that cannot be stopped, it always seems distant, far off in the future and, therefore, remains invisible. In this paper, I aim to analyse the invisibility of old age and its spaces through two contemporary novels and their ageing females protagonists –Maudie Fowler in Doris Lessing ’s The Diary of a Good Neighbour and Erica March in Rose Tremain ’s The Cupboard. Although invisible to the rest of society, these elderly characters succeed in becoming significant in the lives of younger protagonists who, immersed in their active lives, become aware of the need to enlarge our vision of old age.

Otolith shape analysis as a tool for population discrimination of the white grunt (Haemulon plumieri) stock in the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

In this study, the population structure of the white grunt (Haemulon plumieri) from the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula was determined through an otolith shape analysis based on the samples collected in three locations: Celestún (N 20°49",W 90°25"), Dzilam (N 21°23", W 88°54") and Cancún (N 21°21",W 86°52"). The otolith outline was based on the elliptic Fourier descriptors, which indicated that the H. plumieri population in the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is composed of three geographically delimited units (Celestún, Dzilam, and Cancún). Significant differences were observed in mean otolith shapes among all samples (PERMANOVA; F2, 99 = 11.20, P = 0.0002), and the subsequent pairwise comparisons showed that all samples were significantly differently from each other. Samples do not belong to a unique white grunt population, and results suggest that they might represent a structured population along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula

Humeral development from neonatal period to skeletal maturity—application in age and sex assessment

The goal of the present study is to examine cross-sectional information on the growth of the humerus based on the analysis of four measurements, namely, diaphyseal length, transversal diameter of the proximal (metaphyseal) end of the shaft, epicondylar breadth and vertical diameter of the head. This analysis was performed in 181 individuals (90 ♂ and 91 ♀) ranging from birth to 25 years of age and belonging to three documented Western European skeletal collections (Coimbra, Lisbon and St. Bride). After testing the homogeneity of the sample, the existence of sexual differences (Student"s t- and Mann-Whitney U-test) and the growth of the variables (polynomial regression) were evaluated. The results showed the presence of sexual differences in epicondylar breadth above 20 years of age and vertical diameter of the head from 15 years of age, thus indicating that these two variables may be of use in determining sex from that age onward. The growth pattern of the variables showed a continuous increase and followed first- and second-degree polynomials. However, growth of the transversal diameter of the proximal end of the shaft followed a fourth-degree polynomial. Strong correlation coefficients were identified between humeral size and age for each of the four metric variables. These results indicate that any of the humeral measurements studied herein is likely to serve as a useful means of estimating sub-adult age in forensic samples.

Preferred Spatial Frequencies for Human Face Processing Are Associated with Optimal Class Discrimination in the Machine

Psychophysical studies suggest that humans preferentially use a narrow band of low spatial frequencies for face recognition. Here we asked whether artificial face recognition systems have an improved recognition performance at the same spatial frequencies as humans. To this end, we estimated recognition performance over a large database of face images by computing three discriminability measures: Fisher Linear Discriminant Analysis, Non-Parametric Discriminant Analysis, and Mutual Information. In order to address frequency dependence, discriminabilities were measured as a function of (filtered) image size. All three measures revealed a maximum at the same image sizes, where the spatial frequency content corresponds to the psychophysical found frequencies. Our results therefore support the notion that the critical band of spatial frequencies for face recognition in humans and machines follows from inherent properties of face images, and that the use of these frequencies is associated with optimal face recognition performance.

Postnatal ontogenesis of the tibia. Implications for age and sex estimation

The growth of five variables of the tibia (diaphyseal length, diaphyseal length plus distal epiphysis, condylo-malleolar length, sagittal diameter of the proximal epiphysis, maximum breadth of the distal epiphysis) were analysed using polynomial regression in order to evaluate their significance and capacity for age and sex determination during and after growth. Data were collected from 181 (90♂ and 91♀) individuals ranging from birth to 25 years of age and belonging to three documented collections from Western Europe. Results indicate that all five variables exhibit linear behaviour during growth, which can be expressed by a first-degree polynomial function. Sexual significant differences were observed from age 15 onward in the two epiphysis measurements and condylo-malleolar length, suggesting that these three variables could be useful for sex determination in individuals older than 15 years. Strong correlation coefficients were identified between the five tibial variables and age. These results indicate that any of the studied tibial measurements is likely to serve as a useful source for estimating sub-adult age in both archaeological and forensic samples.

Economic ideas and economists in the Parliament in the liberal age: The attempt to implement a tax on incomes in Spain in 1868-1869

[spa] El estudio de la presencia de ideas económicas en los debates parlamentarios se ha convertido recientemente en un objeto importante dentro de la investigación sobre el proceso de institucionalización de la economía política en Europa Occidental en la llamada era liberal. En este marco general, este artículo se centra en el análisis de un caso de particular interés: La relevancia del pensamiento económico y el papel jugado por los economistas en los debates parlamentarios que siguieron a la creación de un nuevo impuesto que trataba de captar la renta personal, que fue lanzado por el ministro de Hacienda Laureano Figuerola en 1868. El artículo intenta demostrar, en primer lugar, que las ideas económicas jugaron efectivamente un papel relevante en las discusiones sobre el impuesto sobre la renta y que la presencia e influencia de los economistas en el Legislativo en este tiempo fue notable. En segundo lugar, que este fue un intento serio de modernizar la estructura fiscal española llevado a cabo por el Gobierno Provisional, el cual trató de diseñar un sistema impositivo capaz de fomentar el crecimiento económico del país.

Economic ideas and economists in the Parliament in the liberal age: The attempt to implement a tax on incomes in Spain in 1868-1869

[spa] El estudio de la presencia de ideas económicas en los debates parlamentarios se ha convertido recientemente en un objeto importante dentro de la investigación sobre el proceso de institucionalización de la economía política en Europa Occidental en la llamada era liberal. En este marco general, este artículo se centra en el análisis de un caso de particular interés: La relevancia del pensamiento económico y el papel jugado por los economistas en los debates parlamentarios que siguieron a la creación de un nuevo impuesto que trataba de captar la renta personal, que fue lanzado por el ministro de Hacienda Laureano Figuerola en 1868. El artículo intenta demostrar, en primer lugar, que las ideas económicas jugaron efectivamente un papel relevante en las discusiones sobre el impuesto sobre la renta y que la presencia e influencia de los economistas en el Legislativo en este tiempo fue notable. En segundo lugar, que este fue un intento serio de modernizar la estructura fiscal española llevado a cabo por el Gobierno Provisional, el cual trató de diseñar un sistema impositivo capaz de fomentar el crecimiento económico del país.

Assessment of the discrimination of animal fat by FT_Raman spectroscopy

In recent years, there has been an increased attention towards the composition of feeding fats. In the aftermath of the BSE crisis all animal by-products utilised in animal nutrition have been subjected to close scrutiny. Regulation requires that the material belongs to the category of animal by-products fit for human consumption. This implies the use of reliable techniques in order to insure the safety of products. The feasibility of using rapid and non-destructive methods, to control the composition of feedstuffs on animal fats has been studied. Fourier Transform Raman spectroscopy has been chosen for its advantage to give detailed structural information. Data were treated using chemometric methods as PCA and PLS-DA which have permitted to separate well the different classes of animal fats. The same methodology was applied on fats from various types of feedstock and production technology processes. PLS-DA model for the discrimination of animal fats from the other categories presents a sensitivity and a specificity of 0.958 and 0.914, respectively. These results encourage the use of FT-Raman spectroscopy to discriminate animal fats.

EEG Windowed statitical wavelet deviation for estimation of muscular artifacts

Electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings are, most of the times, corrupted by spurious artifacts, which should be rejected or cleaned by the practitioner. As human scalp EEG screening is error-prone, automatic artifact detection is an issue of capital importance, to ensure objective and reliable results. In this paper we propose a new approach for discrimination of muscular activity in the human scalp quantitative EEG (QEEG), based on the time-frequency shape analysis. The impact of the muscular activity on the EEG can be evaluated from this methodology. We present an application of this scoring as a preprocessing step for EEG signal analysis, in order to evaluate the amount of muscular activity for two set of EEG recordings for dementia patients with early stage of Alzheimer’s disease and control age-matched subjects.

Housing Wealth and Housing Decisions in Old Age: Sale and Reversion

Population ageing brings new challenges to long-term household economic decisions. In the event of old-age dependency, housing assets become a key self-insurance device. However, little empirical evidence has been reported regarding an individual"s expectations of having to use their housing wealth for such a purpose. This paper draws upon two complementary data sources to empirically examine: (1) the influence of housing assets on an individual"s willingness-to-sell (WTS) their dwelling for care purposes, and (2) the willingness to take out a reverse mortgage contract loan in the event of old-age dependency. The paper"s findings suggest that homeowners" WTS in old age is unaffected by their income or housing assets and is, rather, determined by socio-environmental housing characteristics and the individual"s health and personal needs. Conversely, the study finds that the uptake of home reversion loans is largely dependent on income or education, but not on a household"s housing assets.