Decision making techniques with similarity measures and OWA operators

We analyse the use of the ordered weighted average (OWA) in decision-making giving special attention to business and economic decision-making problems. We present several aggregation techniques that are very useful for decision-making such as the Hamming distance, the adequacy coefficient and the index of maximum and minimum level. We suggest a new approach by using immediate weights, that is, by using the weighted average and the OWA operator in the same formulation. We further generalize them by using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. We also analyse the applicability of the OWA operator in business and economics and we see that we can use it instead of the weighted average. We end the paper with an application in a business multi-person decision-making problem regarding production management

Weber's law in decision making: integrating behavioral data in humans with a neurophysiological model

Recent single-cell studies in monkeys (Romo et al., 2004) show that the activity of neurons in the ventral premotor cortex covaries with the animal's decisions in a perceptual comparison task regarding the frequency of vibrotactile events. The firing rate response of these neurons was dependent only on the frequency differences between the two applied vibrations, the sign of that difference being the determining factor for correct task performance. We present a biophysically realistic neurodynamical model that can account for the most relevant characteristics of this decision-making-related neural activity. One of the nontrivial predictions of this model is that Weber's law will underlie the perceptual discrimination behavior. We confirmed this prediction in behavioral tests of vibrotactile discrimination in humans and propose a computational explanation of perceptual discrimination that accounts naturally for the emergence of Weber's law. We conclude that the neurodynamical mechanisms and computational principles underlying the decision-making processes in this perceptual discrimination task are consistent with a fluctuation-driven scenario in a multistable regime.

Deep incision in an Aptian carbonate succession indicates major sea-level fall in the Cretaceous

Long-term relative sea-level cycles (0 5 to 6 Myr) have yet to be fully understood for the Cretaceous. During the Aptian, in the northern Maestrat Basin (Eastern Iberian Peninsula), fault-controlled subsidence created depositional space, but eustasy governed changes in depositional trends. Relative sea-level history was reconstructed by sequence stratigraphic analysis. Two forced regressive stages of relative sea-level were recognized within three depositional sequences. The first stage is late Early Aptian age (intra Dufrenoyia furcata Zone) and is characterized by foreshore to upper shoreface sedimentary wedges, which occur detached from a highstand carbonate platform, and were deposited above basin marls. The amplitude of relative sea-level drop was in the order of tens of metres, with a duration of <1 Myr. The second stage of relative sea-level fall occurred within the Late Aptian and is recorded by an incised valley that, when restored to its pre-contractional attitude, was >2 km wide and cut 115 m down into the underlying Aptian succession. With the subsequent transgression, the incision was back-filled with peritidal to shallow subtidal deposits. The changes in depositional trends, lithofacies evolution and geometric relation of the stratigraphic units characterized are similar to those observed in coeval rocks within the Maestrat Basin, as well as in other correlative basins elsewhere. The pace and magnitude of the two relative sea-level drops identified fall within the glacio-eustatic domain. In the Maestrat Basin, terrestrial palynological studies provide evidence that the late Early and Late Aptian climate was cooler than the earliest part of the Early Aptian and the Albian Stage, which were characterized by warmer environmental conditions. The outcrops documented here are significant because they preserve the results of Aptian long-term sea-level trends that are often only recognizable on larger scales (i.e. seismic) such as for the Arabian Plate.

Deep incision in an Aptian carbonate succession indicates major sea-level fall in the Cretaceous

Long-term relative sea-level cycles (0 5 to 6 Myr) have yet to be fully understood for the Cretaceous. During the Aptian, in the northern Maestrat Basin (Eastern Iberian Peninsula), fault-controlled subsidence created depositional space, but eustasy governed changes in depositional trends. Relative sea-level history was reconstructed by sequence stratigraphic analysis. Two forced regressive stages of relative sea-level were recognized within three depositional sequences. The first stage is late Early Aptian age (intra Dufrenoyia furcata Zone) and is characterized by foreshore to upper shoreface sedimentary wedges, which occur detached from a highstand carbonate platform, and were deposited above basin marls. The amplitude of relative sea-level drop was in the order of tens of metres, with a duration of <1 Myr. The second stage of relative sea-level fall occurred within the Late Aptian and is recorded by an incised valley that, when restored to its pre-contractional attitude, was >2 km wide and cut 115 m down into the underlying Aptian succession. With the subsequent transgression, the incision was back-filled with peritidal to shallow subtidal deposits. The changes in depositional trends, lithofacies evolution and geometric relation of the stratigraphic units characterized are similar to those observed in coeval rocks within the Maestrat Basin, as well as in other correlative basins elsewhere. The pace and magnitude of the two relative sea-level drops identified fall within the glacio-eustatic domain. In the Maestrat Basin, terrestrial palynological studies provide evidence that the late Early and Late Aptian climate was cooler than the earliest part of the Early Aptian and the Albian Stage, which were characterized by warmer environmental conditions. The outcrops documented here are significant because they preserve the results of Aptian long-term sea-level trends that are often only recognizable on larger scales (i.e. seismic) such as for the Arabian Plate.

Agency problems with non-smooth decision profiles: the case of monopoly under product quality

A method for dealing with monotonicity constraints in optimal control problems is used to generalize some results in the context of monopoly theory, also extending the generalization to a large family of principal-agent programs. Our main conclusion is that many results on diverse economic topics, achieved under assumptions of continuity and piecewise differentiability in connection with the endogenous variables of the problem, still remain valid after replacing such assumptions by two minimal requirements.

Succession climatique et limite stratigraphique Cretacé-Tertiaire dans le N.E. de l'Espagne

En este trabajo se explicitanlos resultados de los análisis esporopoiínicos realizados en múltiples niveles del Cretácico terminal-Terciario basa1 en el sector N:E. de la Península Ibérica. Los datos de los que actualmente se dispone permiten deducir variaciones climáticas significativas entre el Maastrichtiense y el Ilerdiense inferior-medio en el sector pirenaico catalano-aragonés. Es muy evidente que esos cambios climáticos no guardan una relación exacta con el límite actualmente aceptado entre el Cretácico y el Terciario. Finalmente hay que considerar que a faltade datos cronoe~tratigr~cos claramente fiables (vertebrados, micromamíferos, ... ), los datos suministrados por la paleoflora solo permiten aproximaciones, sobre todo si, como sucede en la zona estudiada, los datos corresponden a una sucesión vertical no completamente contínua.

Some optimization and decision problems in proportional reinsurance

Reinsurance is one of the tools that an insurer can use to mitigate the underwriting risk and then to control its solvency. In this paper, we focus on the proportional reinsurance arrangements and we examine several optimization and decision problems of the insurer with respect to the reinsurance strategy. To this end, we use as decision tools not only the probability of ruin but also the random variable deficit at ruin if ruin occurs. The discounted penalty function (Gerber & Shiu, 1998) is employed to calculate as particular cases the probability of ruin and the moments and the distribution function of the deficit at ruin if ruin occurs.

A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.

Upper Eocene-Lowermost Miocene charophyte succession in the Ebro Basin (Spain). Contribution to the charophyte biozonation in Western Europe

A charophyte succession has been established in nineteen sections and eight isolated outcrops from the Ebro Basin, ranging from the Priabonian ro the Aquitanian. Most assemblages were recovered fmm continuous sections and their abundance and diversity allow to define a new zonal scheme for the Upper Eocene-Lower Miocene of Europe. The new zonation includes nine subdivisions, based on the distribution of thirty-two species and directly correlated with the mammal standard levels. Changes in diversity, occurring mainly in the Middle and Upper Oligocene, have been related to climatíc variations. A new species, Chara sp. A. is also described and figured.

Evaluation of a revision of the BSPcast decision support system for control of brown spot of pear

Control of brown spot of pear requires fungicide treatments of pear trees during the growing season. Scheduling fungicide sprays with the Brown spot of pear forecasting system (BSPcast) provides significantfungicide savings but does not increase the efficacy of disease control. Modifications in BSPcast wereintroduced in order to increase system performance. The changes consisted of: (1) the use of a daily infectionrisk (Rm≥0.2) instead of the 3-day cumulative risk (CR≥0.4) to guide the fungicide scheduling, and (2) theinclusion of the effect of relative humidity during interrupted wetness periods. Trials were performed during2 years in an experimental pear orchard in Spain. The modifications introduced did not result in increaseddisease control efficacy, compared with the original BSPcast system. In one year, no reduction in the numberof fungicide applications was obtained using the modified BSPcast system in comparison to the original system, but in the second year the number of treatments was reduced from 15 to 13. The original BSPcast model overestimated the daily infection risk in 6.5% of days with wetness periods with low relative humidity during the wetness interruption, and in these cases the modified version was more adequate

The influence of decision-maker effort and case complexity on appealed rulings subject to multi-categorical selection

This study extends the standard econometric treatment of appellate court outcomes by 1) considering the role of decision-maker effort and case complexity, and 2) adopting a multi-categorical selection process of appealed cases. We find evidence of appellate courts being affected by both the effort made by first-stage decision makers and case complexity. This illustrates the value of widening the narrowly defined focus on heterogeneity in individual-specific preferences that characterises many applied studies on legal decision-making. Further, the majority of appealed cases represent non-random sub-samples and the multi-categorical selection process appears to offer advantages over the more commonly used dichotomous selection models.

Deep incision in an Aptian carbonate succession indicates major sea-level fall in the Cretaceous

Long-term relative sea-level cycles (0 5 to 6 Myr) have yet to be fully understood for the Cretaceous. During the Aptian, in the northern Maestrat Basin (Eastern Iberian Peninsula), fault-controlled subsidence created depositional space, but eustasy governed changes in depositional trends. Relative sea-level history was reconstructed by sequence stratigraphic analysis. Two forced regressive stages of relative sea-level were recognized within three depositional sequences. The first stage is late Early Aptian age (intra Dufrenoyia furcata Zone) and is characterized by foreshore to upper shoreface sedimentary wedges, which occur detached from a highstand carbonate platform, and were deposited above basin marls. The amplitude of relative sea-level drop was in the order of tens of metres, with a duration of <1 Myr. The second stage of relative sea-level fall occurred within the Late Aptian and is recorded by an incised valley that, when restored to its pre-contractional attitude, was >2 km wide and cut 115 m down into the underlying Aptian succession. With the subsequent transgression, the incision was back-filled with peritidal to shallow subtidal deposits. The changes in depositional trends, lithofacies evolution and geometric relation of the stratigraphic units characterized are similar to those observed in coeval rocks within the Maestrat Basin, as well as in other correlative basins elsewhere. The pace and magnitude of the two relative sea-level drops identified fall within the glacio-eustatic domain. In the Maestrat Basin, terrestrial palynological studies provide evidence that the late Early and Late Aptian climate was cooler than the earliest part of the Early Aptian and the Albian Stage, which were characterized by warmer environmental conditions. The outcrops documented here are significant because they preserve the results of Aptian long-term sea-level trends that are often only recognizable on larger scales (i.e. seismic) such as for the Arabian Plate.

Deep incision in an Aptian carbonate succession indicates major sea-level fall in the Cretaceous

Long-term relative sea-level cycles (0 5 to 6 Myr) have yet to be fully understood for the Cretaceous. During the Aptian, in the northern Maestrat Basin (Eastern Iberian Peninsula), fault-controlled subsidence created depositional space, but eustasy governed changes in depositional trends. Relative sea-level history was reconstructed by sequence stratigraphic analysis. Two forced regressive stages of relative sea-level were recognized within three depositional sequences. The first stage is late Early Aptian age (intra Dufrenoyia furcata Zone) and is characterized by foreshore to upper shoreface sedimentary wedges, which occur detached from a highstand carbonate platform, and were deposited above basin marls. The amplitude of relative sea-level drop was in the order of tens of metres, with a duration of <1 Myr. The second stage of relative sea-level fall occurred within the Late Aptian and is recorded by an incised valley that, when restored to its pre-contractional attitude, was >2 km wide and cut 115 m down into the underlying Aptian succession. With the subsequent transgression, the incision was back-filled with peritidal to shallow subtidal deposits. The changes in depositional trends, lithofacies evolution and geometric relation of the stratigraphic units characterized are similar to those observed in coeval rocks within the Maestrat Basin, as well as in other correlative basins elsewhere. The pace and magnitude of the two relative sea-level drops identified fall within the glacio-eustatic domain. In the Maestrat Basin, terrestrial palynological studies provide evidence that the late Early and Late Aptian climate was cooler than the earliest part of the Early Aptian and the Albian Stage, which were characterized by warmer environmental conditions. The outcrops documented here are significant because they preserve the results of Aptian long-term sea-level trends that are often only recognizable on larger scales (i.e. seismic) such as for the Arabian Plate.

Present and future methodology for the implementation of decision support systems for traffic management

Real-time predictions are an indispensable requirement for traffic management in order to be able to evaluate the effects of different available strategies or policies. The combination of predicting the state of the network and the evaluation of different traffic management strategies in the short term future allows system managers to anticipate the effects of traffic control strategies ahead of time in order to mitigate the effect of congestion. This paper presents the current framework of decision support systems for traffic management based on short and medium-term predictions and includes some reflections on their likely evolution, based on current scientific research and the evolution of the availability of new types of data and their associated methodologies.