Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

Tienda online y gestor de stock

El objetivo de este proyecto es desarrollar una aplicación web que sirva y gestione una tienda de música, tanto para su tienda física como para su tienda online. La aplicación Web está gestionada por los usuarios "administrador" y utilizada por los dos tipos de usuarios: administradores y clientes. Sus principales funciones son: Introducción y modificación de artículos. Gestión de entradas y salidas de productos. Gestión de pedidos. Obtención de datos para la gestión de la empresa. Minimizar los errores de gestión. Mejorar la imagen de la empresa. Ampliar los ámbitos de negocio. Correcta visualización de los artículos. Facilitar la búsqueda y compra de artículos.

A compositional statistical analysis of capital stock

Most of economic literature has presented its analysis under the assumption of homogeneous capital stock.However, capital composition differs across countries. What has been the pattern of capital compositionassociated with World economies? We make an exploratory statistical analysis based on compositional datatransformed by Aitchinson logratio transformations and we use tools for visualizing and measuring statisticalestimators of association among the components. The goal is to detect distinctive patterns in the composition.As initial findings could be cited that:1. Sectorial components behaved in a correlated way, building industries on one side and , in a lessclear view, equipment industries on the other.2. Full sample estimation shows a negative correlation between durable goods component andother buildings component and between transportation and building industries components.3. Countries with zeros in some components are mainly low income countries at the bottom of theincome category and behaved in a extreme way distorting main results observed in the fullsample.4. After removing these extreme cases, conclusions seem not very sensitive to the presence ofanother isolated cases

Uncertainty, electoral Incentives and political myopia

In this paper, we study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build a framework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectly observable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies with future returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised facts and with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better ...scal discipline in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Is ENP good news for the transfer of environmental norms? Incentives and socialization for Eastern neighbours

The launching of the European Neighbourhood Policy has created some expectations. Cooperation between the EU and its partners is expected to get deeper, to the point that neighbouring countries have been promised to share “everything but institutions” with the EU. Moreover, cooperation is also expected to be broader, as it has been presented as including more and more issue areas. In other words, the ENP has the vocation of being a universal instrument to promote the transfer of EU norms. This paper focuses on one single issue area, the environment, and one group of ENP partners, the Western Newly Independent States and the South Caucasus, to revise to what extent neighbourhood policy can provide the mechanisms to encourage rule transfer. Are incentives and disincentives powerful enough? Can the ENP promote the socialization of neighbours into EU environmental norms?

Tax incentives and direct support for R&D: What do firms use and why?

This paper studies whether firms' use of R&D subsidies and R&D tax incentives is correlated to two sources of underinvestment in R&D, financing constraints and appropriability. We find that financially constrained SMEs are less likely to use R&D tax credits and more likely to obtain subsidies. SMEs using legal methods to protect their intellectual property are more likely to use tax incentives. Results are ambiguous for large firms. For both having previous experience in R&D increases the likelihood of using tax incentives, while it reduces the likelihood of using exclusively subsidies, suggesting that the latter induce entry into R&D. Results imply that direct funding and tax credits do not have the same ability to address each source of R&D underinvestment, and that on average subsidies may be better suited than tax credits at least for SMEs. From a policy perspective these tools may be complements rather than substitutes.

Avaluació de l'aplicació de la biomassa produïda a la Vall d'Alinyà per la producció d'energia calorífica

L’estudi analitza detalladament les energies que s’utilitzen actualment a la població d’Alinyà (Lleida, Catalunya, Espanya). Les energies més utilitzades amb fins calorífics provenen d’energies fòssils (95,3%). Aquest tipus d’energia, des de un punt de vista econòmic, és inviable donat l’augment continuat dels preus d’aquest tipus de combustibles. A més a més el petroli ha arribat al peak oil. Tenint en compte la delicada situació que viuen actualment els combustibles fòssils, en particular el petroli, fa pensar que el futur està encaminat a produir energia a partir d’altres fonts. Una bona opció és començar a utilitzar biomassa com a font energètica. La zona d’estudi presenta un stock de biomassa 8,4 vegades superior a la que es necessitaria a Alinyà per produir calor i ACS a totes les llars. Per això, en aquest estudi, s’estimen possibles escenaris on es podria aplicar la biomassa que es produeix a la Vall d’Alinyà. S’estima que les calderes individuals serien l’escenari més viable, ja que tècnicament són eficients i s’adeqüen a les característiques de les llars d’aquesta població. Posteriorment, es realitza un estudi de les emissions de CO2 i s’observa que, si s’utilitzés biomassa com a font energètica a Alinyà ,es reduirien 11,3 vegades (91,11%) les emissions de CO2.

Contagion or Interdependence in the recent Global Financial Crisis? An application to the stock markets using unconditional cross-market correlations

We consider stock market contagion as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country or group of countries. Under this definition we study if contagion occurred from the U.S. Financial Crisis to the rest of the major stock markets in the world by using the adjusted (unconditional) correlation coefficient approach (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002) which consists of testing if average crossmarket correlations increase significantly during the relevant period of turmoil. We would not reject the null hypothesis of interdependence in favour of contagion if the increase in correlation only suggests a continuation of high linkages in all state of the world. Moreover, if contagion occurs, this would justify the intervention of the IMF and the suddenly portfolio restructuring during the period under study.

On the goodness of fit of Kirk's formula for spread option prices

In this paper we investigate the goodness of fit of the Kirk's approximation formula for spread option prices in the correlated lognormal framework. Towards this end, we use the Malliavin calculus techniques to find an expression for the short-time implied volatility skew of options with random strikes. In particular, we obtain that this skew is very pronounced in the case of spread options with extremely high correlations, which cannot be reproduced by a constant volatility approximation as in the Kirk's formula. This fact agrees with the empirical evidence. Numerical examples are given.

Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

Managerial incentives for mergers

We study managerial incentives in a model where managers take notonly product market but also takeover decisions. We show that the optimalcontract includes an incentive to increase the firm's sales, under bothquantity and price competition. This result is in contrast to the previousliterature and hinges on the fact that with a more aggressive manager rivalfirms earn lower profits and are willing to sell out at a lower price. \\However, as a side--effect of such a contract, the manager might take overmore rivals than would be profitable.

On the term structure of Interbank interest rates: Jump-diffusion processes and option pricing

In this paper we study the dynamic behavior of the term structureof Interbank interest rates and the pricing of options on interest ratesensitive securities. We posit a generalized single factor model withjumps to take into account external influences in the market. Daily datais used to test for jump effects. Qualitative examination of the linkagebetween Monetary Authorities' interventions and jumps are studied. Pricingresults suggests a systematic underpricing in bonds and call options ifthe jumps component is not included. However, the pricing of put optionson bonds presents indeterminacies.

Earnings management and audit adjustments: An empirical study of IBEX 35 constituents

Doubts about the reliability of a company's qualitative financial disclosure increase market participant expectations from the auditor's report. The auditing process is supposed to serve as a monitoring device that reduces management incentives to manipulate reported earnings. Empirical research confirms that it could be an efficient device under some circumstancesand recognizes that our estimates of the informativeness of audit reports are unavoidably biased (e.g., because of a client's anticipation of the auditing process). This empirical study supports the significant role of auditors in the financial market, in particular in the prevention of earnings management practice. We focus on earnings misstatements, which auditors correct with anadjustment, using a sample of past and current constituents of the benchmark market index in Spain, IBEX 35, and manually collected audit adjustments reported over the 1997-2004 period (42 companies, 336 annual reports, 75 earnings misstatements). Our findings confirm that companies more often overstate than understate their earnings. An investor may foresee earningsmisreporting, as manipulators have a similar profile (e.g., more leveraged and with lower sales). However, he may receive valuable information from the audit adjustment on the size of earnings misstatement, which can be significantly large (i.e., material in almost all cases). We suggest that the magnitude of an audit adjustment depends, other things constant, on annual revenues and free cash levels. We also examine how the audit adjustment relates to the observed market price, trading volume and stock returns. Our findings are that earnings manipulators have a lower price and larger trading volume compared to their rivals. Their returns are positively associated with the magnitude of earnings misreporting, which is not consistent with the possible pricing of audit information.

Globalization and the provision of incentives inside the firm: The effect of foreign competition

This paper studies the effect of changes in foreign competition on the structureof compensation and incentives of U.S. executives. We measure foreign competitionas import penetration and use tariffs and exchange rates as instrumental variables toestimate its causal effect on pay. We find that higher foreign competition leads tomore incentive provision in a variety of ways. First, it increases the sensitivity of payto performance. Second, it increases whithin-firm pay differentials between executivelevels, with CEOs typically experiencing the largest wage increases, partly becausethey receive the steepest incentive contracts. Finally, higher foreign competition is alsoassociated with a higher demand for talent. These results indicate that increased foreigncompetition can explain some of the recent trends in compensation structures.