Are we living longer but less healthy? Trends in mortality and morbidity in Catalonia (Spain), 1994-2011

Evidence on trends in prevalence of disease and disability can clarify whether countries are experiencing a compression or expansion of morbidity. An expansion of morbidity as indicated by disease have appeared in Europe and other developed regions. It is likely that better treatment, preventive measures and increases in education levels have contributed to the declines in mortality and increments in life expectancy. This paper examines whether there has been an expansion of morbidity in Catalonia (Spain). It uses trends in mortality and morbidity from major causes of death and links of these with survival to provide estimates of life expectancy with and without diseases and functioning loss. We use a repeated cross-sectional health survey carried out in 1994 and 2011 for measures of morbidity; mortality information comes from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Our findings show that at age 65 the percentage of life with disease increased from 52% to 70% for men, and from 56% to 72% for women; the expectation of life unable to function increased from 24% to 30% for men and 40% to 47% for women between 1994 and 2011. These changes were attributable to increases in the prevalences of diseases and moderate functional limitation. Overall, we find an expansion of morbidity along the period. Increasing survival among people with diseases can lead to a higher prevalence of diseases in the older population. Higher prevalence of health problems can lead to greater pressure on the health care system and a growing burden of disease for individuals.

Future trends of the World Wide Web in the food and beverage sector in Spain

Extended abstract.

Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It as- sesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Com- pensacíon de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal in- fluences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.

Lifetime enhancement of scroll rings by spatiotemporal fluctuations

The dynamics of three-dimensional scroll rings with spatiotemporal random excitability is investigated numerically using the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. Depending on the correlation time and length scales of the fluctuations, the lifetime of the ring filament is enlarged and a resonance effect between the time scale of the scroll ring and the time correlation of the noise is observed. Numerical results are interpreted in terms of a simplified stochastic model derived from the kinematical equations for three-dimensional excitable waves.

Lifetime enhancement of scroll rings by spatiotemporal fluctuations

The dynamics of three-dimensional scroll rings with spatiotemporal random excitability is investigated numerically using the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. Depending on the correlation time and length scales of the fluctuations, the lifetime of the ring filament is enlarged and a resonance effect between the time scale of the scroll ring and the time correlation of the noise is observed. Numerical results are interpreted in terms of a simplified stochastic model derived from the kinematical equations for three-dimensional excitable waves.

Regional Science trends through the analysis of the main facts of the 51st ERSA Conference

The 51st ERSA Conference held in Barcelona in 2011 was one of the largest ever. By examining the characteristics of the conference, this paper identifies the main trends in Regional Science and draws on a broad array of sources of information: the delegates" demographic details, the conference program itself, a satisfaction survey conducted among delegates, a quality survey addressed to those chairing the sessions and, finally, a bibliometric database including each author signing a paper presented at the conference. We finally run a regression analysis from which we show that for ERSA delegates what matters most is quality, and this must be the direction that future conferences should move toward. Ultimately, ERSA conferences are comprehensive, all-embracing occasions, representing an ideal opportunity for regional scientists to present their work to each other and to network.

Fragmentation of contaminant and endogenous DNA in ancient samples determined by shotgun sequencing; prospects for human palaeogenomics

Despite the successful retrieval of genomes from past remains, the prospects for human palaeogenomics remain unclear because of the difficulty of distinguishing contaminant from endogenous DNA sequences. Previous sequence data generated on high-throughput sequencing platforms indicate that fragmentation of ancient DNA sequences is a characteristic trait primarily arising due to depurination processes that create abasic sites leading to DNA breaks.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Sunshine Duration over Western Europe

This work analyzes sunshine duration variability in the western part of Europe (WEU) over the 1938– 2004 period. A principal component analysis is applied to cluster the original series from 79 sites into 6 regions, and then annual and seasonal mean series are constructed on regional and also for the whole WEU scales. Over the entire period studied here, the linear trend of annual sunshine duration is found to be nonsignificant. However, annual sunshine duration shows an overall decrease since the 1950s until the early 1980s, followed by a subsequent recovery during the last two decades. This behavior is in good agreement with the dimming and brightening phenomena described in previous literature. From the seasonal analysis, the most remarkable result is the similarity between spring and annual series, although the spring series has a negative trend; and the clear significant increase found for the whole WEU winter series, being especially large since the 1970s. The behavior of the major synoptic patterns for two seasons is investigated, resulting in some indications that sunshine duration evolution may be partially explained by changes in the frequency of some of them