Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict

This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks oncivil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks oncivil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops aninstrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) incomeshocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, andSergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data ofMiguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate(for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).

State capacity and military conflict

In 1500, Europe was composed of hundreds of statelets and principalities, with weak central authority,no monopoly over the legitimate use of violence, and overlapping jurisdictions. By 1800, only ahandful of powerful, centralized nation states remained. We build a model that explains both the emergenceof capable states and growing divergence between European powers. We argue that the impactof war was crucial for state building, and depended on: i) the financial cost of war, and ii) a country sinitial level of domestic political fragmentation. We emphasize the role of the "Military Revolution",which raised the cost of war. Initially, this caused more cohesive states to invest in state capacity, whilemore divided states rationally dropped out of the competition, causing divergence between Europeanstates. As the cost of war escalated further, all states engaged in a "race to the top" towards greater statebuilding.

Why ethnic fractionalization? Polarization, ethnic conflict and growth

This paper ia an attempt to clarify the relationship between fractionalization,polarization and conflict. The literature on the measurement of ethnic diversityhas taken as given that the proper measure for heterogeneity can be calculatedby using the fractionalization index. This index is widely used in industrialeconomics and, for empirical purposes, the ethnolinguistic fragmentation isready available for regression exercises. Nevertheless the adequacy of asynthetic index of hetergeneity depends on the intrinsic characteristicsof the heterogeneous dimension to be measured. In the case of ethnicdiversity there is a very strong conflictive dimension. For this reasonwe argue that the measure of heterogeneity should be one of the class ofpolarization measures. In fact the intuition of the relationship betweenconflict and fractionalization do not hold for more than two groups. Incontrast with the usual problem of polarization indices, which are ofdifficult empirical implementation without making some arbitrary choiceof parameters, we show that the RQ index, proposed by Reynal-Querol (2002),is the only discrete polarization measure that satisfies the basic propertiesof polarization. Additionally we present a derivation of the RQ index froma simple rent seeking model. In the empirical section we show that whileethnic polarization has a positive effect on civil wars and, indirectly ongrowth, this effect is not present when we use ethnic fractionalization.

A theory of international conflict management and sanctioning

In this paper we analyze sanctioning policies in international law. We develop a model of international military conflict where the conflicting countries can be a target of international sanctions. These sanctions constitute an equilibrium outcome of an international political market for sanctions, where different countries trade political influence. We show that the level of sanctions in equilibrium is strictly positive but limited, in the sense that higher sanctions would exacerbate the military conflict, not reduce it. We then propose an alternative interpretation to the perceived lack of effectiveness of international sanctions, by showing that the problem might not be one of undersanctioning but of oversanctioning.

Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.

Olson vs. Coase: Coalitional worth in conflict

We analyze a model of conflict with endogenous choice of effort, wheresubsets of the contenders may force the resolution to be sequential:First the alliance fights it out with the rest and in case they win later they fight it out among themselves. For three-player games, wefind that it will not be in the interest of any two of them to form analliance. We obtain this result under two different scenarios:equidistant preferences with varying relative strengths, and vicinityof preferences with equal distribution of power. We conclude that thecommonly made assumption of super-additive coalitional worth is suspect.

Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment

Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lowerrainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflictrisk in Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on theirfinding of a negative correlation between conflict in t andrainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this findingis driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t andrainfall levels in t-2. If lower rainfall levels or negativerainfall shocks increased conflict, one might have expectedMSS s finding to reflect a negative correlation betweenconflict in t and rainfall levels in t-1. In the latest data,conflict is unrelated to rainfall.

Reprisals remembered: German-Greek conflict and car sales during the Euro crisis

During the Greek debt crisis after 2010, the German government insisted on harshausterity measures. This led to a rapid cooling of relations between the Greekand German governments. We compile a new index of public acrimony betweenGermany and Greece based on newspaper reports and internet search terms. Thisinformation is combined with historical maps on German war crimes during theoccupation between 1941 and 1944. During months of open conflict between Germanand Greek politicians, German car sales fell markedly more than those of cars fromother countries. This was especially true in areas affected by German reprisals duringWorldWar II: areas where German troops committed massacres and destroyed entirevillages curtailed their purchases of German cars to a greater extent during conflictmonths than other parts of Greece. We conclude that cultural aversion was a keydeterminant of purchasing behavior, and that memories of past conflict can affecteconomic choices in a time-varying fashion. These findings are compatible withbehavioral models emphasizing the importance of salience for individual decision-making.

Documento sobre salud sexual y reproductiva en la adolescencia

El grup ha analitzat els problemes existents quant a la salut sexual i reproductiva en l'adolescència i la validesa del consentimentinformat dels menors. Aquesta qüestió requereix un debat social informat, encaminat a assolir el consens suficient per portar a terme les actuacions necessàries -d'acord amb la normativa ja existent per a la majoria dels supòsits- que protegeixin l'interès del menor, considerat en la nostra legislació com sempre preferent.

Documento sobre salud sexual y reproductiva en la adolescencia

El grup ha analitzat els problemes existents quant a la salut sexual i reproductiva en l'adolescència i la validesa del consentimentinformat dels menors. Aquesta qüestió requereix un debat social informat, encaminat a assolir el consens suficient per portar a terme les actuacions necessàries -d'acord amb la normativa ja existent per a la majoria dels supòsits- que protegeixin l'interès del menor, considerat en la nostra legislació com sempre preferent.

Hermenéutica del deseo y género sexual

"La que mis palabras esconden, mi cuerpo lo revela". El interés de esta cita de Roland Barthes1 para una reflexión formal sobre la distinción de género entte 10 femenino y 10 masculino radica en el supuesto de la diferencia hermeneutica entte las palabras y el cuerpo, que se oponen conceptualmente a partir de su función, respectivamente, ocultadora y reveladora en relación con el deseo.

Prevalencia y características del abuso sexual infantil en estudiantes universitarios españoles

Objective: The purpose of this paper was to compare the prevalence rates of child sexual abuse reported by [Finkelhor, D. (1994). The international epidemiology of child sexual abuse. Child Abuse & Neglect, 18 (5), 409417] with those found in recent publications in order to confirm the widespread prevalence of child sexual abuse. Methods: Relevant articles about prevalence of child sexual abuse were identified through searches of computerized databases and a handsearch of Child Abuse & Neglect and the Journal of Child Sexual Abuse. Results: Thirty-eight independent articles were identified, corresponding to 39 prevalence studies; these articles report the prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in 21 different countries, ranging from 0 to 53% for women and 0 to 60% for men. Conclusions: Comparison of the present study with that of [Finkelhor, D. (1994). The international epidemiology of child sexual abuse. Child Abuse & Neglect, 18 (5), 409417] shows a similarity between prevalence distributions; there appears to be a general pattern that remains more or less constant over the years, especially in women. Practice implications: Twelve years after the first revision study about the international prevalence of child sexual abuse, there is still a need for new data about this topic. The present study shows child sexual abuse is still a widespread problem in the society. In this research, carried out on 38 independent studies, there is new data for 21 countries over the world, being especially relevant the results obtained from other countries different from those pertaining toNorth America or Europe. It is important to point out the high prevalence found in most of the countries, so this information could be a new warning to make society and governments aware of this problem and undertake actions to prevent sexual abuse in childhood. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estudio descriptivo de víctimas de abuso sexual infantil

En este trabajo se describen las características principales que presenta la población atendida en un centro de asesoramiento y atención a menores víctimas de abusos sexuales. Este centro, con sede en Barcelona, pertenece a la asociación FADA,creada en 1997 con la finalidad de ofrecer un servicio profesional de asesoramiento, prevención y formación especializada en relación con el abuso sexual acontecido durante la infancia. El presente estudio, meramente descriptivo, muestra la frecuencia del abuso sexual, la dificultad de su descubrimiento durante la infancia, sus consecuencias más comunes, así como la reacción del entorno de la víctima ante su revelación. Para ello se han utilizado los testimonios de 385 personas víctimas de abuso sexual durante su infancia. A través del análisis de dos muestras de usuarios del centro (adultos y menores) se dan a conocer las diferencias más destacadas. Los profesionales de este centro hacen de este modo públicas sus experiencias y recalcan la urgente y necesaria atención especializada que requieren no sólo las víctimas de abuso sexual infantil, sino también sus familias y/o su entorno social.

Hermenéutica del deseo y género sexual

"La que mis palabras esconden, mi cuerpo lo revela". El interés de esta cita de Roland Barthes1 para una reflexión formal sobre la distinción de género entte 10 femenino y 10 masculino radica en el supuesto de la diferencia hermeneutica entte las palabras y el cuerpo, que se oponen conceptualmente a partir de su función, respectivamente, ocultadora y reveladora en relación con el deseo.

Estudi sobre assetjament sexual a la Universitat Pompeu Fabra

La present investigació té com a objectiu analitzar la dimensió d’assetjament sexual en el àmbit de la Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Per poder valorar-ho, s’ha creat una enquesta per analitzar aquest fenomen dirigida exclusivament a la població de la universitat. La investigació es divideix en tres apartats diferents. El primer, pretén valorar la percepció dels membres de la Universitat Pompeu Fabra en relació a l’assetjament sexual. El segon, veure si es produeix assetjament dins de la Universitat. Per últim, es vol valorar la opinió de la població en relació a la implementació d’un mecanisme per atendre a les víctimes d’assetjament sexual.