Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Variability of the radius growth at 25 years old Pinus uncinata Miller ex Mirbel in the North-East Spanish Pyrenees

It has been studied the variability of stem radial growth in four radius orientations at the age of 25 years old trees. The species was Pinus uncinata. The sampling sites, located in the North East Spanish Pyrenees belong to different plant communities. An ANOVA analysis was performed in order to find out which factors, the radio orientation, plant community of the site and tree itself are significative or have some kind of influence on the tree radial growth.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Unexpected genomic variability in clinical and environmental strains of the pathogenic yeast Candida parapsilosis

Invasive candidiasis is the most commonly reported invasive fungal infection worldwide. Although Candida albicans remains the main cause, the incidence of emerging Candida species, such as C. parapsilosis is increasing. It has been postulated that C. parapsilosis clinical isolates result from a recent global expansion of a virulent clone. However, the availability of a single genome for this species has so far prevented testing this hypothesis at genomic scales. We present here the sequence of three additional strains from clinical and environmental samples. Our analyses reveal unexpected patterns of genomic variation, shared among distant strains, that argue against the clonal expansion hypothesis. All strains carry independent expansions involving an arsenite transporter homolog, pointing to the existence of directional selection in the environment, and independent origins of the two clinical isolates. Furthermore, we report the first evidence for the existence of recombination in this species. Altogether, our results shed new light onto the dynamics of genome evolution in C. parapsilosis.

Mitochondrial control region and microsatellite data show low genetic variability in reared senegalese sole, Solea senegalensis. Preliminary data

Peer reviewed

Morphological and functional variability in the root system of Quercus ilex L. subject to confinement: consequences for afforestation

We examined root morphological and functional differences caused by restrictions imposed to vertical growth in the root system of holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) seedlings to assess the consequences of using nursery containers in the development of a confined root system for this species. Thus, root morphological, topological and functional parameters, including hydraulic conductance per leaf unit surface area (K $_{\rm RL})$, were investigated in one-year seedlings cultivated in three PVC tubes differing in length (20, 60 and 100 cm). Longer tubes showed greater projected root area, root volume, total and fine root lengths, specific root length (SRL) and K$_{\rm RL}$ values than did shorter tubes. On the other hand, the length of coarse roots (diameter > 4.5 mm) and the average root diameter were greater in shorter tubes. The strong positive correlation found between K$_{\rm RL}$ and SRL (r=+0.69; P<0.001) indicated that root thickness was inversely related to water flow through the root system. We concluded that root systems developed in longer tubes are more efficient for plant water uptake and, therefore, changes in root pattern produced in standard forest containers (i.e. about 20 cm length) may in fact prevent a proper establishment of the holm oak in the field, particularly in xeric environments.

Molecular method for the characterization of Coxiella burnetii from clinical and environmental samples: variability of genotypes in Spain

Background: Coxiella burnetii is a highly clonal microorganism which is difficult to culture, requiring BSL3 conditions for its propagation. This leads to a scarce availability of isolates worldwide. On the other hand, published methods of characterization have delineated up to 8 different genomic groups and 36 genotypes. However, all these methodologies, with the exception of one that exhibited limited discriminatory power (3 genotypes), rely on performing between 10 and 20 PCR amplifications or sequencing long fragments of DNA, which make their direct application to clinical samples impracticable and leads to a scarce accessibility of data on the circulation of C. burnetii genotypes. Results: To assess the variability of this organism in Spain, we have developed a novel method that consists of a multiplex (8 targets) PCR and hybridization with specific probes that reproduce the previous classification of this organism into 8 genomic groups, and up to 16 genotypes. It allows for a direct haracterization from clinical and environmental samples in a single run, which will help in the study of the different genotypes circulating in wild and domestic cycles as well as from sporadic human cases and outbreaks. The method has been validated with reference isolates. A high variability of C. burnetii has been found in Spain among 90 samples tested, detecting 10 different genotypes, being those adaA negative associated with acute Q fever cases presenting as fever of intermediate duration with liver involvement and with chronic cases. Genotypes infecting humans are also found in sheep, goats, rats, wild boar and ticks, and the only genotype found in cattle has never been found among our clinical samples. Conclusions: This newly developed methodology has permitted to demonstrate that C. burnetii is highly variable in Spain. With the data presented here, cattle seem not to participate in the transmission of C. burnetii to humans in the samples studied, while sheep, goats, wild boar, rats and ticks share genotypes with the human population.

Growth variability of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a West-East gradient across northern Fennoscandia: a dendroclimatic approach

We performed a spatiotemporal analysis of a network of 21 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) ring-width chronologies in northern Fennoscandia by means of chronology statistics and multivariate analyses. Chronologies are located on both sides (western and eastern) of the Scandes Mountains (67°N-70°N, 15°E-29°E). Growth relationships with temperature, precipitation, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices were calculated for the period 1880-1991. We also assessed their temporal stability. Current July temperature and, to a lesser degree, May precipitation are the main growth limiting factors in the whole area of study. However, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and mean interseries correlation revealed differences in radial growth between both sides of the Scandes Mountains, attributed to the Oceanic-Continental climatic gradient in the area. The gradient signal is temporally variable and has strengthened during the second half of the 20th century. Northern Fennoscandia Scots pine growth is positively related to early winter NAO indices previous to the growth season and to late spring NAO. NAO/growth relationships are unstable and have dropped in the second half of the 20th century. Moreover, they are noncontinuous through the range of NAO values: for early winter, only positive NAO indices enhance tree growth in the next growing season, while negative NAO does not. For spring, only negative NAO is correlated with radial growth.

End point of Hawking radiation

The formation and semiclassical evaporation of two-dimensional black holes is studied in an exactly solvable model. Above a certain threshold energy flux, collapsing matter forms a singularity inside an apparent horizon. As the black hole evaporates the apparent horizon recedes and meets the singularity in a finite proper time. The singularity emerges naked, and future evolution of the geometry requires boundary conditions to be imposed there. There is a natural choice of boundary conditions which matches the evaporated black hole solution onto the linear dilaton vacuum. Below the threshold energy flux no horizon forms and boundary conditions can be imposed where infalling matter is reflected from a timelike boundary. All information is recovered at spatial infinity in this case.

Natural Products from Antarctic Colonial Ascidians of the Genera Aplidium and Synoicum: Variability and Defensive Role

Ascidians have developed multiple defensive strategies mostly related to physical, nutritional or chemical properties of the tunic. One of such is chemical defense based on secondary metabolites. We analyzed a series of colonial Antarctic ascidians from deep-water collections belonging to the genera Aplidium and Synoicum to evaluate the incidence of organic deterrents and their variability. The ether fractions from 15 samples including specimens of the species A. falklandicum, A. fuegiense, A. meridianum, A. millari and S. adareanum were subjected to feeding assays towards two relevant sympatric predators: the starfish Odontaster validus, and the amphipod Cheirimedon femoratus. All samples revealed repellency. Nonetheless, some colonies concentrated defensive chemicals in internal body-regions rather than in the tunic. Four ascidian-derived meroterpenoids, rossinones B and the three derivatives 2,3-epoxy-rossinone B, 3-epi-rossinone B, 5,6-epoxy-rossinone B, and the indole alkaloids meridianins A-G, along with other minoritary meridianin compounds were isolated from several samples. Some purified metabolites were tested in feeding assays exhibiting potent unpalatabilities, thus revealing their role in predation avoidance. Ascidian extracts and purified compound-fractions were further assessed in antibacterial tests against a marine Antarctic bacterium. Only the meridianins showed inhibition activity, demonstrating a multifunctional defensive role. According to their occurrence in nature and within our colonial specimens, the possible origin of both types of metabolites is discussed.

Spatiotemporal variability in radial growth of trees in the Central Pyrenees: climatic and site influences.

To understand how tree growth has responded to recent climate warming, an understanding of the tree-climate-site complex is necessary. To achieve this, radial growth variability among 204 trees established before 1850 was studied in relation to both climatic and site factors. Seventeen forest stands were sampled in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Three species were studied: Pinus uncinata, Abies alba, and Pinus sylvestris. For each tree, a ring-width residual chronology was built. All trees cross-dated well, indicating a common influence of the regional climate. For the 1952-1993 period, the radial growth of all species, especially P. uncinata, was positively correlated with warm Novembers during the year before ring formation and warm Mays of the year the annual ring formed. Differences in species-stand elevation modulated the growth-climate associations. Radial growth in P. uncinata at high elevation sites was reduced when May temperatures were colder and May precipitation more abundant. In the 20th century, two contrasting periods in radial growth were observed: one (1900-1949) with low frequency of narrow and wide rings, low mean annual sensitivity, and low common growth variation; and another (1950-1994) with the reverse characteristics. The increased variability in radial growth since the 1950s was observed for all species and sites, which suggests a climatic cause. The low shared variance among tree chronologies during the first half of the 20th century may result from a"relaxation" of the elevation gradient, allowing local site conditions to dominate macroclimatic influence. These temporal trends may be related to the recently reported increase of climatic variability and warmer conditions. This study emphasizes the need to carefully assess the relationships between radial growth and site conditions along ecological gradients to improve dendroclimatic reconstructions.

Gamma-ray emission from microquasars: a numerical model for LSI+61º303

We explore the possible association between the microquasar LSI +61°303 and the EGRET source 2CG 135+01/3EG J0241+6103 by studying, with a detailed numerical model, whether this system can produce the emission and the variability detected by EGRET (>100 MeV) through inverse Compton (IC) scattering. Our numerical approach considers a population of relativistic electrons entrained in a cylindrical inhomogeneous jet, interacting with both the radiation and the magnetic fields, taking into account the Thomson and Klein-Nishina regimes of interaction. Our results reproduce the observed spectral characteristics and variability at γ-rays, thus strengthening the identification of LSI +61°303 as a high-energy γ-ray source.

Long-term X-ray variability of the microquasar system LS5039/RX J1826.2-1450

We report on the results of the spectral and timing analysis of a BeppoSAX observation of the microquasar system LS 5039/RX J1826.2-1450. The source was found in a low-flux state with Fx(1-10 keV)= 4.7 x 10^{-12} erg cm^{-2} s^{-1}, which represents almost one order of magnitude lower than a previous RXTE observation 2.5 years before. The 0.1--10 keV spectrum is described by an absorbed power-law continuum with photon-number spectral index Gamma=1.8+-0.2 and hydrogen column density of NH=1.0^{+0.4}_{-0.3} x 10^{22} cm^{-2}. According to the orbital parameters of the system the BeppoSAX observation covers the time of an X-ray eclipse should one occur. However, the 1.6-10 keV light curve does not show evidence for such an event, which allows us to give an upper limit to the inclination of the system. The low X-ray flux detected during this observation is interpreted as a decrease in the mass accretion rate onto the compact object due to a decrease in the mass-loss rate from the primary.

AGNs and microquasars as high-energy gamma-ray sources

The possible associations between the microquasars LS 5039 and LS I +61 303 and the EGRET sources 3EG J1824-1514 and 3EG J0241+6103 suggest that microquasars could also be sources of high-energy gamma-rays. In this work, we present a detailed numerical inverse Compton (IC) model, based on a microquasar scenario, that reproduces the high-energy gamma-ray spectra and variability observed by EGRET for the mentioned sources. Our model considers a population of relativistic electrons entrained in a cylindrical inhomogeneous jet that interact through IC scattering with both the radiation and the magnetic fields.

Influence of M. tuberculosis lineage variability within a clinical trial for pulmonary tuberculosis.

Recent studies suggest that M. tuberculosis lineage and host genetics interact to impact how active tuberculosis presents clinically. We determined the phylogenetic lineages of M. tuberculosis isolates from participants enrolled in the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium Study 28, conducted in Brazil, Canada, South Africa, Spain, Uganda and the United States, and secondarily explored the relationship between lineage, clinical presentation and response to treatment. Large sequence polymorphisms and single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed to determine lineage and sublineage of isolates. Of 306 isolates genotyped, 246 (80.4%) belonged to the Euro-American lineage, with sublineage 724 predominating at African sites (99/192, 51.5%), and the Euro-American strains other than 724 predominating at non-African sites (89/114, 78.1%). Uneven distribution of lineages across regions limited our ability to discern significant associations, nonetheless, in univariate analyses, Euro-American sublineage 724 was associated with more severe disease at baseline, and along with the East Asian lineage was associated with lower bacteriologic conversion after 8 weeks of treatment. Disease presentation and response to drug treatment varied by lineage, but these associations were no longer statistically significant after adjustment for other variables associated with week-8 culture status.