Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Future trends of the World Wide Web in the food and beverage sector in Spain

Extended abstract.

End point of Hawking radiation

The formation and semiclassical evaporation of two-dimensional black holes is studied in an exactly solvable model. Above a certain threshold energy flux, collapsing matter forms a singularity inside an apparent horizon. As the black hole evaporates the apparent horizon recedes and meets the singularity in a finite proper time. The singularity emerges naked, and future evolution of the geometry requires boundary conditions to be imposed there. There is a natural choice of boundary conditions which matches the evaporated black hole solution onto the linear dilaton vacuum. Below the threshold energy flux no horizon forms and boundary conditions can be imposed where infalling matter is reflected from a timelike boundary. All information is recovered at spatial infinity in this case.

Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It as- sesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Com- pensacíon de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal in- fluences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.

Regional Science trends through the analysis of the main facts of the 51st ERSA Conference

The 51st ERSA Conference held in Barcelona in 2011 was one of the largest ever. By examining the characteristics of the conference, this paper identifies the main trends in Regional Science and draws on a broad array of sources of information: the delegates" demographic details, the conference program itself, a satisfaction survey conducted among delegates, a quality survey addressed to those chairing the sessions and, finally, a bibliometric database including each author signing a paper presented at the conference. We finally run a regression analysis from which we show that for ERSA delegates what matters most is quality, and this must be the direction that future conferences should move toward. Ultimately, ERSA conferences are comprehensive, all-embracing occasions, representing an ideal opportunity for regional scientists to present their work to each other and to network.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Sunshine Duration over Western Europe

This work analyzes sunshine duration variability in the western part of Europe (WEU) over the 1938– 2004 period. A principal component analysis is applied to cluster the original series from 79 sites into 6 regions, and then annual and seasonal mean series are constructed on regional and also for the whole WEU scales. Over the entire period studied here, the linear trend of annual sunshine duration is found to be nonsignificant. However, annual sunshine duration shows an overall decrease since the 1950s until the early 1980s, followed by a subsequent recovery during the last two decades. This behavior is in good agreement with the dimming and brightening phenomena described in previous literature. From the seasonal analysis, the most remarkable result is the similarity between spring and annual series, although the spring series has a negative trend; and the clear significant increase found for the whole WEU winter series, being especially large since the 1970s. The behavior of the major synoptic patterns for two seasons is investigated, resulting in some indications that sunshine duration evolution may be partially explained by changes in the frequency of some of them

Fragmentation of massive dense cores down to <~ 1000 AU: relation between fragmentation and density structure

In order to shed light on the main physical processes controlling fragmentation of massive dense cores, we present a uniform study of the density structure of 19 massive dense cores, selected to be at similar evolutionary stages, for which their relative fragmentation level was assessed in a previous work. We inferred the density structure of the 19 cores through a simultaneous fit of the radial intensity profiles at 450 and 850 μm (or 1.2 mm in two cases) and the spectral energy distribution, assuming spherical symmetry and that the density and temperature of the cores decrease with radius following power-laws. Even though the estimated fragmentation level is strictly speaking a lower limit, its relative value is significant and several trends could be explored with our data. We find a weak (inverse) trend of fragmentation level and density power-law index, with steeper density profiles tending to show lower fragmentation, and vice versa. In addition, we find a trend of fragmentation increasing with density within a given radius, which arises from a combination of flat density profile and high central density and is consistent with Jeans fragmentation. We considered the effects of rotational-to-gravitational energy ratio, non-thermal velocity dispersion, and turbulence mode on the density structure of the cores, and found that compressive turbulence seems to yield higher central densities. Finally, a possible explanation for the origin of cores with concentrated density profiles, which are the cores showing no fragmentation, could be related with a strong magnetic field, consistent with the outcome of radiation magnetohydrodynamic simulations.

A Method for Sky-Condition Classification from Ground-Based Solar Radiation Measurements

Identification of clouds from satellite images is now a routine task. Observation of clouds from the ground, however, is still needed to acquire a complete description of cloud conditions. Among the standard meteorologicalvariables, solar radiation is the most affected by cloud cover. In this note, a method for using global and diffuse solar radiation data to classify sky conditions into several classes is suggested. A classical maximum-likelihood method is applied for clustering data. The method is applied to a series of four years of solar radiation data and human cloud observations at a site in Catalonia, Spain. With these data, the accuracy of the solar radiation method as compared with human observations is 45% when nine classes of sky conditions are to be distinguished, and it grows significantly to almost 60% when samples are classified in only five different classes. Most errors are explained by limitations in the database; therefore, further work is under way with a more suitable database

Analytical investigation of the atmospheric radiation limits in semigray atmospheres in radiative equilibrium

We model the wavelength-dependent absorption of atmospheric gases by assuming constant mass absorption coefficients in finite-width spectral bands. Such a semigray atmosphere is analytically solved by a discrete ordinate method. The general solution is analyzed for a water vapor saturated atmosphere that also contains a carbon dioxide-like absorbing gas in the infrared. A multiple stable equilibrium with a relative upper limit in the outgoing long-wave radiation is found. Differing from previous radiative–convective models, we find that the amount of carbon dioxide strongly modifies the value of this relative upper limit. This result is also obtained in a gray (i.e., equal absorption of radiation at all infrared wavelengths) water vapor saturated atmosphere. The destabilizing effect of carbon dioxide implies that massive carbon dioxide atmospheres are more likely to reach a runaway greenhouse state than thin carbon dioxide ones