Auction theory, sequential local service privatization, and the effects of geographical scale economies on effective competition

A sequential weakly efficient two-auction game with entry costs, interdependence between objects, two potential bidders and IPV assumption is presented here in order to give some theoretical predictions on the effects of geographical scale economies on local service privatization performance. It is shown that the first object seller takes profit of this interdependence. The interdependence externality rises effective competition for the first object, expressed as the probability of having more than one final bidder. Besides, if there is more than one final bidder in the first auction, seller extracts the entire bidder¿s expected future surplus differential between having won the first auction and having lost. Consequences for second object seller are less clear, reflecting the contradictory nature of the two main effects of object interdependence. On the one hand, first auction winner becomes ¿stronger¿, so that expected payments rise in a competitive environment. On the other hand, first auction loser becomes relatively ¿weaker¿, hence (probably) reducing effective competition for the second object. Additionally, some contributions to static auction theory with entry cost and asymmetric bidders are presented in the appendix

Willigness to pay for long-term care coverage: the role of private information and self-insurance

Both public and private insurance for long-term care is undeveloped in some European countries such as in Spain and empirical evidence is still limited. This paper aims at exmining the determinants of the demand for Long Term Care (LTC) coverage in Spain using contingent valuation techniques. Our findings indicate that only one-fifth of the population is willing to pay to assure coverage decisions are significantly affected by private information asymmetry and housing tenure in giving rise to self-insurance reduces the probability of insurance being hypothetically purchased.

Class of correlated random networks with hidden variables

We study a class of models of correlated random networks in which vertices are characterized by hidden variables controlling the establishment of edges between pairs of vertices. We find analytical expressions for the main topological properties of these models as a function of the distribution of hidden variables and the probability of connecting vertices. The expressions obtained are checked by means of numerical simulations in a particular example. The general model is extended to describe a practical algorithm to generate random networks with an a priori specified correlation structure. We also present an extension of the class, to map nonequilibrium growing networks to networks with hidden variables that represent the time at which each vertex was introduced in the system.

Predictors of death among patients who completed tuberculosis treatment: a population-based cohort study.

Background: Mortality among patients who complete tuberculosis (TB) treatment is still high among vulnerable populations. The objective of the study was to identify the probability of death and its predictive factors in a cohort of successfully treated TB patients. Methods: A population-based retrospective longitudinal study was performed in Barcelona, Spain. All patients who successfully completed TB treatment with culture-confirmation and available drug susceptibility testing between 1995 1997 were retrospectively followed-up until December 31, 2005 by the Barcelona TB Control Program. Socio-demographic, clinical, microbiological and treatment variables were examined. Mortality, TB Program and AIDS registries were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and a Cox regression methods with time-dependent covariates were used for the survival analysis, calculating the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among the 762 included patients, the median age was 36 years, 520 (68.2%) were male, 178 (23.4%) HIV-infected, and 208 (27.3%) were alcohol abusers. Of the 134 (17.6%) injecting drug users (IDU), 123 (91.8%) were HIV-infected. A total of 30 (3.9%) recurrences and 173 deaths (22.7%) occurred (mortality rate: 3.4/100 person-years of follow-up). The predictors of death were: age between 4160 years old (HR: 3.5; CI:2.15.7), age greater than 60 years (HR: 14.6; CI:8.924), alcohol abuse (HR: 1.7; CI:1.22.4) and HIV-infected IDU (HR: 7.9; CI:4.713.3). Conclusions: The mortality rate among TB patients who completed treatment is associated with vulnerable populations such as the elderly, alcohol abusers, and HIV-infected IDU. We therefore need to fight against poverty, and promote and develop interventions and social policies directed towards these populations to improve their survival.

Early use of TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding.

Background Patients with cirrhosis in ChildPugh class C or those in class B who have persistent bleeding at endoscopy are at high risk for treatment failure and a poor prognosis, even if they have undergone rescue treatment with a transjugular intrahepatic porto - systemic shunt (TIPS). This study evaluated the earlier use of TIPS in such patients. Methods We randomly assigned, within 24 hours after admission, a total of 63 patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding who had been treated with vasoactive drugs plus endoscopic therapy to treatment with a polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stent within 72 hours after randomization (early-TIPS group, 32 patients) or continuation of vasoactive-drug therapy, followed after 3 to 5 days by treatment with propranolol or nadolol and long-term endoscopic band ligation (EBL), with insertion of a TIPS if needed as rescue therapy (pharmacotherapyEBL group, 31 patients). Results During a median follow-up of 16 months, rebleeding or failure to control bleeding occurred in 14 patients in the pharmacotherapyEBL group as compared with 1 patient in the early-TIPS group (P=0.001). The 1-year actuarial probability of remaining free of this composite end point was 50% in the pharmacotherapyEBL group versus 97% in the early-TIPS group (P<0.001). Sixteen patients died (12 in the pharmacotherapyEBL group and 4 in the early-TIPS group, P=0.01). The 1-year actuarial survival was 61% in the pharmacotherapyEBL group versus 86% in the early-TIPS group (P<0.001). Seven patients in the pharmacotherapyEBL group received TIPS as rescue therapy, but four died. The number of days in the intensive care unit and the percentage of time in the hospital during follow-up were significantly higher in the pharmacotherapyEBL group than in the early-TIPS group. No significant diferences were observed between the two treatment groups with respect to serious adverse events. Conclusions In these patients with cirrhosis who were hospitalized for acute variceal bleeding and at high risk for treatment failure, the early use of TIPS was associated with signif icant reductions in treatment failure and in mortality. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN58150114.)

Nadolol plus isosorbide mononitrate alone or associated with band ligation in the prevention of recurrent bleeding: A multicenter randomized controlled trial.

Background and aims: Previous clinical trials suggest that adding non-selective beta-blockers improves the efficacy of endoscopic band ligation (EBL) in the prevention of recurrent bleeding, but no study has evaluated whether EBL improves the efficacy of beta-blockers + isosorbide-5-mononitrate. The present study was aimed at evaluating this issue in a multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) and to correlate changes in hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) during treatment with clinical outcomes. Methods: 158 patients with cirrhosis, admitted because of variceal bleeding, were randomised to receive nadolol+isosorbide-5-mononitrate alone (Drug: n=78) or combined with EBL (Drug+EBL; n=80). HVPG measurements were performed at randomisation and after 4¿6 weeks on medical therapy. Results: Median follow-up was 15 months. One-year probability of recurrent bleeding was similar in both groups (33% vs 26%: p=0.3). There were no significant differences in survival or need of rescue shunts. Overall adverse events or those requiring hospital admission were significantly more frequent in the Drug+EBL group. Recurrent bleeding was significantly more frequent in HVPG non-responders than in responders (HVPG reduction ¿20% or ¿12 mm Hg). Among non-responders recurrent bleeding was similar in patients treated with Drugs or Drugs+EBL. Conclusions: Adding EBL to pharmacological treatment did not reduce recurrent bleeding, the need for rescue therapy, or mortality, and was associated with more adverse events. Furthermore, associating EBL to drug therapy did not reduce the high rebleeding risk of HVPG non-responders.

Surveillance of adenoviruses and noroviruses in European recreational waters

Exposure to human pathogenic viruses in recreational waters has been shown to cause disease outbreaks. In the context of Article 14 of the revised European Bathing Waters Directive 2006/7/EC (rBWD, CEU, 2006) a Europe-wide surveillance study was carried out to determine the frequency of occurrence of two human enteric viruses in recreational waters. Adenoviruses were selected based on their near-universal shedding and environmental survival, and noroviruses (NoV) selected as being the most prevalent gastroenteritis agent worldwide. Concentration of marine and freshwater samples was done by adsorption/elution followed by molecular detection by (RT)-PCR. Out of 1410 samples, 553 (39.2%) were positive for one or more of the target viruses. Adenoviruses, detected in 36.4% of samples, were more prevalent than noroviruses (9.4%), with 3.5% GI and 6.2% GII, some samples being positive for both GI and GII. Of 513 human adenovirus-positive samples, 63 (12.3%) were also norovirus-positive, whereas 69 (7.7%) norovirus-positive samples were adenovirus-negative. More freshwater samples than marine water samples were virus-positive. Out of a small selection of samples tested for adenovirus infectivity, approximately one-quarter were positive. Sixty percent of 132 nested-PCR adenovirus-positive samples analysed by quantitative PCR gave a mean value of over 3000 genome copies per L of water. The simultaneous detection of infectious adenovirus and of adenovirus and NoV by (RT)PCR suggests that the presence of infectious viruses in recreational waters may constitute a public health risk upon exposure. These studies support the case for considering adenoviruses as an indicator of bathing water quality.

Willigness to pay for long-term care coverage: the role of private information and self-insurance

Both public and private insurance for long-term care is undeveloped in some European countries such as in Spain and empirical evidence is still limited. This paper aims at exmining the determinants of the demand for Long Term Care (LTC) coverage in Spain using contingent valuation techniques. Our findings indicate that only one-fifth of the population is willing to pay to assure coverage decisions are significantly affected by private information asymmetry and housing tenure in giving rise to self-insurance reduces the probability of insurance being hypothetically purchased.

Adapting football to the child: an application of the logistic regression model in observational mewthodology.

Logistic regression is included into the analysis techniques which are valid for observationalmethodology. However, its presence at the heart of thismethodology, and more specifically in physical activity and sports studies, is scarce. With a view to highlighting the possibilities this technique offers within the scope of observational methodology applied to physical activity and sports, an application of the logistic regression model is presented. The model is applied in the context of an observational design which aims to determine, from the analysis of use of the playing area, which football discipline (7 a side football, 9 a side football or 11 a side football) is best adapted to the child"s possibilities. A multiple logistic regression model can provide an effective prognosis regarding the probability of a move being successful (reaching the opposing goal area) depending on the sector in which the move commenced and the football discipline which is being played.

A pioneering epidemiological study investigating the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of tongue in a Portuguese population

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the anterior two thirds of the tongue in a population living in central and southern Portugal, all treated at Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa, Francisco Gentil (IPOLFG). Study Design: This study was a retrospective review of all patients who had a histopathological diagnosis of SCC of the anterior two thirds of the tongue and had been treated in the Head and Neck Surgery Unit at the IPOLFG (Lisbon, Portugal), between 1st January 2001 and 31st December 2009. The risk factors evaluated were: gender; age; alcohol consumption; tobacco use; prosthesis use and the carcinoma site. Results: Of the 424 cases analysed, 71% were men. Mean age of occurrence was in 5th decade for males and the 6th decade for females, and the border of the tongue was the most common location. Alcohol consumption and tobacco had a lower impact in women, being the most common aetiological factors in the male population. No significant association was observed between patients and the use of a prosthesis. Conclusions: In spite of the consumption of aohol and tobacco starting to decline in certain parts of the world, our findings showed both factors still have a significant impact in male population. Further research should be done to determine aetiological factors in females.

The Impact of Cooperation on R&D, Innovation andProductivity: an Analysis of Spanish Manufacturing and Services Firms

This paper investigates relationships between cooperation, R&D, innovation and productivity in Spanish firms. It uses a large sample of firm-level micro-data and applies an extended structural model that aims to explain the effects of cooperation on R&D investment, of R&D investment on output innovation, and of innovation on firms’ productivity levels. It also analyses the determinants of R&D cooperation. Firms’ technology level is taken into account in order to analyse the differences between high-tech and low-tech firms, both in the industrial and service sectors. The database used was the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC) for the period 2004-2010. Empirical results show that firms which cooperate in innovative activities are more likely to invest in R&D in subsequent years. As expected, R&D investment has a positive impact on the probability of generating an innovation, in terms of both product and process, for manufacturing firms. Finally, innovation output has a positive impact on firms’ productivity, being greater in process innovations.

The Impact of Cooperation on R&D, Innovation and Productivity: an Analysis of Spanish Manufacturing and Services Firms

This paper investigates relationships between cooperation, R&D, innovation and productivity in Spanish firms. It uses a large sample of firm-level micro-data and applies an extended structural model that aims to explain the effects of cooperation on R&D investment, of R&D investment on output innovation, and of innovation on firms’ productivity levels. It also analyses the determinants of R&D cooperation. Firms’ technology level is taken into account in order to analyse the differences between high-tech and low-tech firms, both in the industrial and service sectors. The database used was the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC) for the period 2004-2010. Empirical results show that firms which cooperate in innovative activities are more likely to invest in R&D in subsequent years. As expected, R&D investment has a positive impact on the probability of generating an innovation, in terms of both product and process, for manufacturing firms. Finally, innovation output has a positive impact on firms’ productivity, being greater in process innovations. Keywords: innovation sources; productivity; R&D Cooperation

Who Cares? A comparison of informal and formal care provision in Spain, England and the USA

This paper investigates the prevalence of incapacity in performing daily activities and the associations between household composition and availability of family members and receipt of care among older adults with functioning problems in Spain, England and the United States of America (USA). We examine how living arrangements, marital status, child availability, limitations in functioning ability, age and gender affect the probability of receiving formal care and informal care from household members and from others in three countries with different family structures, living arrangements and policies supporting care of the incapacitated. Data sources include the 2006 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe for Spain, the third wave of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2006), and the eighth wave of the USA Health and Retirement Study (2006). Logistic and multinomial logistic regressions are used to estimate the probability of receiving care and the sources of care among persons age 50 and older. The percentage of people with functional limitations receiving care is higher in Spain. More care comes from outside the household in the USA and England than in Spain. The use of formal care among the incapacitated is lowest in the USA and highest in Spain.

The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

Who is afraid of the big bad ban? An evaluation of the effects of the Spanish clean air law on expenditure at hospitality venues

Background:In January 2011 Spain modified clean air legislation in force since 2006, removing all existing exceptions applicable to hospitality venues. Although this legal reform was backed by all political parties with parliamentary representation, the government's initiative was contested by the tobacco industry and its allies in the hospitality industry. One of the most voiced arguments against the reform was its potentially disruptive effect on the revenue of hospitality venues. This paper evaluates the impact of this reform on household expenditure at restaurants and bars and cafeterias. Methods and empirical strategy:We use micro-data from the Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares (EPF) for years 2006 to 2012 to estimate "two part" models where the probability of observing a positive expenditure and, for those who spend, the expected level of expenditure are functions of an array of explanatory variables. We apply a before-after analysis with a wide range of controls for confounding factors and a flexible modeling of time effects.Results:In line with the majority of studies that analyze the effects of smoking bans using objective data, our results suggest that the reform did not cause reductions in households' expenditures on restaurant services or on bars and cafeteria services.