Seeking theta's desperately: Estimating the distribution of consumers under increasing block rates

This paper shows that the distribution of observed consumption is not a good proxy for the distribution of heterogeneous consumers when the current tariff is an increasing block tariff. We use a two step method to recover the "true" distribution of consumers. First, we estimate the demand function induced by the current tariff. Second, using the demand system, we specify the distribution of consumers as a function of observed consumption to recover the true distribution. Finally, we design a new two-part tariff which allows us to evaluate the equity of the existence of an increasing block tariff.

Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgement

Excess entry or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions is often attributed tooverconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entryis an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does notimply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone isunderconfident. Self-selection implies greater confidence (but not necessarilyoverconfidence) among those who start new businesses than those who do not and amongsuccessful entrants than failures. Our results question claims that entrepreneurs areoverconfident and emphasize the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility inproducing economic outcomes.

The effect of divorce laws on divorce rates in Europe

This paper analyzes a panel of 18 European countries spanning from 1950 to 2003 toexamine the extent to which the legal reforms leading to easier divorce that took placeduring the second half of the 20th century have contributed to the increase in divorce rates across Europe. We use a quasi-experimental set-up and exploit the different timing of the reforms in divorce laws across countries. We account for unobserved country-specificfactors by introducing country fixed effects, and we include country-specific trends tocontrol for time-varying factors at the country level that may be correlated with divorcerates and divorce laws, such as changing social norms or slow moving demographictrends. We find that the reforms were followed by significant increases in divorce rates.Overall, we estimate that the introduction of no-fault, unilateral divorce increased thedivorce rate by about 1, a sizeable effect given the average rate of 4.2 divorces per 1,000married people in 2002.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

Failure to collude in the presence of asymmetric information

In this paper, we design the optimal contract when two agents can collude under asymmetric information. They have correlated types, produce complementary inputs and are protected by limited liability. Therefore, a joint manipulation of reports allows them to internalize informational and productive externalities. We show that by taking advantage of the transaction costs created by asymmetric information, even though they collude, the principal can achieve the outcome without collusion regardless of the sign and the degree of correlation. In particular, the principal can implement a non-monotonic quantity schedule in a collusion-proof way while this is impossible if collusion occurs under complete information.

A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents a two--factor model of the term structure ofinterest rates. We assume that default free discount bond prices aredetermined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long--term interestrate and the spread (difference between the long--term rate and theshort--term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Assuming that both factorsfollow a joint Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, a general bond pricing equationis derived. We obtain a closed--form expression for bond prices andexamine its implications for the term structure of interest rates. We alsoderive a closed--form solution for interest rate derivatives prices. Thisexpression is applied to price European options on discount bonds andmore complex types of options. Finally, empirical evidence of the model'sperformance is presented.

Características geológicas y geotécnicas de los lodos de flotación de la Sierra Minera de Cartagena-La Unión (SE España)

We present the results of a geological and geotechnical characterization of the metallurgic waste from the Sierra Minera de Cartagena-La Union. We have studied eight tailings dams from which we collected and analysed 42 samples of metallurgic waste. We measured grainsize distribution, the specific gravity of solid particles, plasticity index, permeability, both in situ and in the laboratory, direct shear characteristicsand moisture content. According to size distribution the tailings can be classified as sandy silt. Their plasticity index ranges from medium to nil. The internal friction angle varies between 28 and 42 degrees. Cohesion is between 0 and 2.2 t/m2. The specific gravity of the solid particles ranges widely from 1.8 to 4 g/cm3. The saturated hydraulic conductivity values vary between 1.3x 10-5 and 3.2x 10-9 m/s.The water content measured in situ shows that the degree of saturation remains relatively high despite low rainfall and high evaporation rates. Several tailings dams have failed. The leading causes of tailings-dam failure are: 1) slope instability; 2) overflow; 3) erosion; and 4) subsidence or collapse. The main factor leading to dam failure is that the tailings stored in the ponds are highly saturated

Synovial fluid examination for the diagnosis of synovial amyloidosis in patients with chronic renal failure undergoing haemodialysis

The diagnosis of synovial amyloidosis is based upon synovial biopsy. Synovial fluid (SF) in seven patients with amyloid arthropathy associated with chronic renal failure undergoing haemodialysis were studied. The SF and synovial samples of 10 consecutive patients with seronegative mono- or oligoarthritis served as controls. Six of the seven patients with amyloid positive synovial biopsy specimens showed amyloid in their SF. No amyloid was found in the synovial tissue or fluid of the 10 patients in the control group, the sensitivity being 87.7%. The finding of amyloid in SF was highly reproducible, showing its presence in the same joint on several occasions. The deposits were Congophilia resistant to potassium permanganate pretreatment, and the immunohistochemical analysis proved that they contained beta 2 microglobulin. The high sensitivity and good reproducibility of the method shows that the finding of amyloid in SF is sufficient for the diagnosis of synovial amyloidosis. It is possible to perform immunohis

Clinical picture of the amyloid arthropathy in patients with chronic renal failure maintained on haemodialysis using cellulose membranes.

The clinical picture of 15 patients (10 male, five female) with amyloid arthropathy secondary to chronic renal failure treated with haemodialysis has been studied. The average period of haemodialysis was 10.8 years. Joint symptoms appeared between three and 13 years after starting haemodialysis. No patient had renal amyloidosis. Early symptoms were varied and often overlapped: knee swelling (seven patients), painful and stiff shoulders (seven), and carpal tunnel syndrome (six) were the most prominent. Follow up showed extension to other joints. Joint effusions were generally of the non-inflammatory type. Radiologically, geodes and erosions of variable sizes were seen in the affected joints, which can develop into a destructive arthropathy. Amyloid was found in abdominal fat in three of the 12 patients on whom a needle aspiration was performed. Four of 12 patients showed changes compatible with amyloid infiltration in the echocardiogram. One patient had amyloid in the gastric muscular layer, another in the colon mucus, and two of four in rectal biopsy specimens. Amyloid deposits showed the presence of beta 2 microglobulin in 10 patients. The clinical and radiological picture was similar to the amyloid arthropathy associated with multiple myeloma. These patients can develop systemic amyloidosis.

An analysis of inflation rates in the European Union using wavelets : strong evidence against unit roots

In this paper we assume inflation rates in European Union countries may in fact be fractionally integrated. Given this assumption, we obtain estimations of the order of integration by means a method based on wavelets coefficients. Finally, results obtained allow reject the unit root hypothesis on inflation rates. It means that a random shock on the rate of inflation in these countries has transitory effects that gradually diminish with the passage of time, that this, said shock hasn¿t a permanent effect on future values of inflation rates

Direct modulation of electroluminescence from silicon nanocrystals beyond radiative recombination rates

We propose a light emitting transistor based on silicon nanocrystals provided with 200 Mbits/ s built-in modulation. Suppression of electroluminescence from silicon nanocrystals embedded into the gate oxide of a field effect transistor is achieved by fast Auger quenching. In this process, a modulating drain signal causes heating of carriers in the channel and facilitates the charge injection into the nanocrystals. This excess of charge enables fast nonradiative processes that are used to obtain 100% modulation depths at modulating voltages of 1 V.

A comparative long-memory Analysis between Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interest rates

Evidence exists that many natural facts are described better as a fractal. Although fractals are very useful for describing nature, it is also appropiate to review the concept of random fractal in finance. Due to the extraordinary importance of Brownian motion in physics, chemistry or biology, we will consider the generalization that supposes fractional Brownian motion introduced by Mandelbrot.The main goal of this work is to analyse the existence of long range dependence in instantaneous forward rates of different financial markets. Concretelly, we perform an empirical analysis on the Spanish, Mexican and U.S. interbanking interest rate. We work with three time series of daily data corresponding to 1 day operations from 28th March 1996 to 21st May 2002. From among all the existing tests on this matter we apply the methodology proposed in Taqqu, Teverovsky and Willinger (1995).