78 resultados para causal modelin


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El consum d’alcohol juntament amb els altres problemes relacionats amb el consum de tòxics ha estat en molt casos un element que ha tingut un paper significatiu en la comissió del delicte tant com a factor causal com facilitador. El consum d’alcohol i els problemes associats queden ocults quan el subjecte ingressa a presó arran de la no-disponibilitat de la substància i és en reiniciar els contactes amb el medi exterior que sovint aquest problema torna a aparèixer progressivament si no ha estat abordat prèviament. Aquest protocol elaborat per una comunitat de psicòlegs de centres penitenciaris de Catalunya pretén trobar una metodologia comuna d’avaluació i intervenció davant els consums actuals d’alcohol i la detecció dels subjectes amb història personal de risc de consum perjudicial.

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El objeto de esta investigación es detectar la idiosincrasia del fantástico en M. Night Shyamalan. Es decir, qué manifestaciones de modo y estilo ofrecen sus películas, y si existe un elemento que constituya la forma causal y determinadora de su ciclo del fantástico. Para ello se ha partido de unadoble perspectiva. La primera es un estudio de género. A partir de las constantes del fantástico literario y cinematográfico, destacadas por diversos autores, se llega a la modalización del discurso fantástico de Shyamalan. La segunda es un estudio estilístico. El Estilo Trascendental, definido por Paul Schrader, es la base, junto a otras clasificaciones análogas, para averiguar si el estilo del director encaja en las coordenadas de lo que sería el Fantástico Trascendental. Finalmente, elanálisis se completa con las características expresivas de Shyamalan que, integradas en lo anterior, conducen a la pausa como forma del Fantástico Trascendental de este director.

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We study the determinants of comparative advantage in polluting industries. We combine data on environmental policy at the country level with data on pollution intensity at the industry level to show that countries with laxer environmental regulation have a comparative advantage in polluting industries. Further, we address the potential problem of reverse causality. We propose an instrument for environmental regulation based on meteorological determinants of pollution dispersion identified by the atmospheric pollution literature. We find that the effect of environmental regulation on the pattern of trade is causal and comparable in magnitude to the effect of physical and human capital.

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We formulate performance assessment as a problem of causal analysis and outline an approach based on the missing data principle for its solution. It is particularly relevant in the context of so-called league tables for educational, health-care and other public-service institutions. The proposed solution avoids comparisons of institutions that have substantially different clientele (intake).

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Amb l’objectiu d’analitzar i comprendre d’una manera més adequada els mecanismes pels quals els potencials turistes que venen d’Anglaterra prenen la decisió de viatjar fins la Costa Daurada, en el context de la introducció de les línies aèries de baix cost a Espanya i la creació de noves rutes, s’ha dut a terme una enquesta a l’aeroport de Reus a un total de 445 turistes que estaven a punt de tornar de les seves vacances cap a Anglaterra tenint l'aeroport d'East Midlands (EMA) com a destinació i viatjant amb la companyia aèria de baix cost RyanAir. Amb el mètode utilitzat en aquest projecte s'ha mesurat, per mitjà de l'enquesta esmentada, el pes de la causalitat entre la presència de vols barats des de EMA fins a Reus amb la decisió dels turistes de passar les seves vacances en una regió turística de primer ordre a Catalunya com és la Costa Daurada. Segons els resultats de les dues preguntes causals que formen part de l’enquesta (pregunta 18 i pregunta 19), gairebé un 30% de l'impacte econòmic turístic total és degut a la disponibilitat de vols barats mitjançant RyanAir. Tanmateix, al voltant d’un 60% de l'impacte estaria relacionat amb el fet que els turistes visitarien la Costa Daurada independentment de la disponibilitat de vols de RyanAir. Això indicaria que tot i que els vols de Ryanair són innegablement atractius pels turistes, hi ha un desig important de visitar la Costa Daurada que podria ser satisfet per altres mitjans.

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I study the impact of a universal child benefit on fertility and family well-being. I exploitthe unanticipated introduction of a new, sizeable, unconditional child benefit in Spain in2007, granted to all mothers giving birth on or after July 1, 2007. The regressiondiscontinuity-type design allows for a credible identification of the causal effects. I find thatthe benefit did lead to a significant increase in fertility, as intended, part of it coming froman immediate reduction in abortions. On the unintended side, I find that families whoreceived the benefit did not increase their overall expenditure or their consumption ofdirectly child-related goods and services. Instead, eligible mothers stayed out of the laborforce significantly longer after giving birth, which in turn led to their children spending lesstime in formal child care and more time with their mother during their first year of life. Ialso find that couples who received the benefit were less likely to break up the year afterhaving the child, although this effect was only short-term. Taken together, the resultssuggest that child benefits of this kind may successfully increase fertility, as well asaffecting family well-being through their impact on maternal time at home and familystability.

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This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.

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We study the determinants of comparative advantage in polluting industries. We combine dataon environmental policy at the country level with data on pollution intensity at the industry levelto show that countries with laxer environmental regulation have a comparative advantage in polluting industries. Further, we address the potential problem of reverse causality. We propose aninstrument for environmental regulation based on meteorological determinants of pollution dispersion identified by the atmospheric pollution literature. We find that the effect of environmentalregulation on the pattern of trade is causal and comparable in magnitude to the effect of physicaland human capital.

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Using historical data for all Swiss cantons from 1890 to 2000, we estimate the causal effect of direct democracy on government spending. The main innovation in this paper is that we use fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity and instrumental variables to address the potential endogeneity of institutions. We find that the budget referendum and lower costs to launch a voter initiative are effective tools in reducing canton level spending. However, we find no evidence that the budget referendum results in more decentralized government or a larger local government. Our instrumental variable estimates suggest that a mandatory budget referendum reduces the size of canton spending between 13 and 19 percent. A 1 percent lower signature requirement for the initiative reduces canton spending by up to 2 percent.

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Highly competitive environments are leading companies to implement SupplyChain Management (SCM) to improve performance and gain a competitiveadvantage. SCM involves integration, co-ordination and collaborationacross organisations and throughout the supply chain. It means that SCMrequires internal (intraorganisational) and external (interorganisational)integration. This paper examines the Logistics-Production and Logistics-Marketing interfaces and their relation with the external integrationprocess. The study also investigates the causal impact of these internaland external relationships on the company s logistical service performance.To analyse this, an empirical study was conducted in the Spanish Fast MovingConsumer Goods (FMCG) sector.

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We formulate performance assessment as a problem of causal analysis and outline an approach based on the missing data principle for its solution. It is particularly relevant in the context of so-called league tables for educational, health-care and other public-service institutions. The proposed solution avoids comparisons of institutions that have substantially different clientele (intake).

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This paper studies the effect of changes in foreign competition on the structureof compensation and incentives of U.S. executives. We measure foreign competitionas import penetration and use tariffs and exchange rates as instrumental variables toestimate its causal effect on pay. We find that higher foreign competition leads tomore incentive provision in a variety of ways. First, it increases the sensitivity of payto performance. Second, it increases whithin-firm pay differentials between executivelevels, with CEOs typically experiencing the largest wage increases, partly becausethey receive the steepest incentive contracts. Finally, higher foreign competition is alsoassociated with a higher demand for talent. These results indicate that increased foreigncompetition can explain some of the recent trends in compensation structures.

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In spite of increasing representation of women in politics, little is known about their impact onpolicies. Comparing outcomes of parliaments with different shares of female members does not identifytheir causal impact because of possible differences in the underlying electorate. This paper usesa unique data set on voting decisions to sheds new light on gender gaps in policy making. Ouranalysis focuses on Switzerland, where all citizens can directly decide on a broad range of policiesin referendums and initiatives. We show that there are large gender gaps in the areas of health,environmental protection, defense spending and welfare policy which typically persist even conditionalon socio-economic characteristics. We also find that female policy makers have a substantial effect onthe composition of public spending, but a small effect on the overall size of government.

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Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisivelife transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parentalhome are events with important consequences for the economic well-beingof young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment,residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight Europeancountries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Resultsshow that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant.Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty andleaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardshipdoes not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave theirparental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that ismore persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood ofemployment.

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BACKGROUND: The only known albino gorilla, named Snowflake, was a male wild born individual from Equatorial Guinea who lived at the Barcelona Zoo for almost 40 years. He was diagnosed with non-syndromic oculocutaneous albinism, i.e. white hair, light eyes, pink skin, photophobia and reduced visual acuity. Despite previous efforts to explain the genetic cause, this is still unknown. Here, we study the genetic cause of his albinism and making use of whole genome sequencing data we find a higher inbreeding coefficient compared to other gorillas.RESULTS: We successfully identified the causal genetic variant for Snowflake's albinism, a non-synonymous single nucleotide variant located in a transmembrane region of SLC45A2. This transporter is known to be involved in oculocutaneous albinism type 4 (OCA4) in humans. We provide experimental evidence that shows that this amino acid replacement alters the membrane spanning capability of this transmembrane region. Finally, we provide a comprehensive study of genome-wide patterns of autozygogosity revealing that Snowflake's parents were related, being this the first report of inbreeding in a wild born Western lowland gorilla.CONCLUSIONS: In this study we demonstrate how the use of whole genome sequencing can be extended to link genotype and phenotype in non-model organisms and it can be a powerful tool in conservation genetics (e.g., inbreeding and genetic diversity) with the expected decrease in sequencing cost.