91 resultados para Variability Modeling


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This paper presents a general equilibrium model of money demand wherethe velocity of money changes in response to endogenous fluctuations in the interest rate. The parameter space can be divided into two subsets: one where velocity is constant and equal to one as in cash-in-advance models, and another one where velocity fluctuates as in Baumol (1952). Despite its simplicity, in terms of paramaters to calibrate, the model performs surprisingly well. In particular, it approximates the variability of money velocity observed in the U.S. for the post-war period. The model is then used to analyze the welfare costs of inflation under uncertainty. This application calculates the errors derived from computing the costs of inflation with deterministic models. It turns out that the size of this difference is small, at least for the levels of uncertainty estimated for the U.S. economy.

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Cork is the bark of the cork oak tree (Quercus suber L), a renewable and biodegradable raw bioresource concentrated mainly in the Mediterranean region. Development of its potential uses as a biosorbent will require the investigation of its chemical composition; such information can be of help to understand its interactions with organic pollutants. The present study investigates the summative chemical composition of three bark layers (back, cork, and belly) of five Spanish cork samples and one cork sample from Portugal. Suberin was the main component in all the samples (21.1 to 53.1%), followed by lignin (14.8 to 31%), holocellulose (2.3 to 33.6%), extractives (7.3 to 20.4%), and ash (0.4 to 3.3%). The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to determine whether the variations in chemical composition with respect to the production area and bark layers were significant. The results indicate that, with respect to the bark layer, significant differences were found only for suberin and holocellulose contents: they were higher in the belly and cork than in the back. Based on the results presented, cork is a material with a lot of potential because of its heterogeneity in chemical composition

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This paper presents a thermal modeling for power management of a new three-dimensional (3-D) thinned dies stacking process. Besides the high concentration of power dissipating sources, which is the direct consequence of the very interesting integration efficiency increase, this new ultra-compact packaging technology can suffer of the poor thermal conductivity (about 700 times smaller than silicon one) of the benzocyclobutene (BCB) used as both adhesive and planarization layers in each level of the stack. Thermal simulation was conducted using three-dimensional (3-D) FEM tool to analyze the specific behaviors in such stacked structure and to optimize the design rules. This study first describes the heat transfer limitation through the vertical path by examining particularly the case of the high dissipating sources under small area. First results of characterization in transient regime by means of dedicated test device mounted in single level structure are presented. For the design optimization, the thermal draining capabilities of a copper grid or full copper plate embedded in the intermediate layer of stacked structure are evaluated as a function of the technological parameters and the physical properties. It is shown an interest for the transverse heat extraction under the buffer devices dissipating most the power and generally localized in the peripheral zone, and for the temperature uniformization, by heat spreading mechanism, in the localized regions where the attachment of the thin die is altered. Finally, all conclusions of this analysis are used for the quantitative projections of the thermal performance of a first demonstrator based on a three-levels stacking structure for space application.

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ic first-order transition line ending in a critical point. This critical point is responsible for the existence of large premartensitic fluctuations which manifest as broad peaks in the specific heat, not always associated with a true phase transition. The main conclusion is that premartensitic effects result from the interplay between the softness of the anomalous phonon driving the modulation and the magnetoelastic coupling. In particular, the premartensitic transition occurs when such coupling is strong enough to freeze the involved mode phonon. The implication of the results in relation to the available experimental data is discussed.

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We present a model that allows for the derivation of the experimentally accesible observables: spatial steps, mean velocity, stall force, useful power, efficiency and randomness, etc. as a function of the [adenosine triphosphate] concentration and an external load F. The model presents a minimum of adjustable parameters and the theoretical predictions compare well with the available experimental results.

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Stress-strain trajectories associated with pseudoelastic behavior of a Cu¿19.4 Zn¿13.1 Al (at.%) single crystal at room temperature have been determined experimentally. For a constant cross-head speed the trajectories and the associated hysteresis behavior are perfectly reproducible; the trajectories exhibit memory properties, dependent only on the values of return points, where transformation direction is reverted. An adapted version of the Preisach model for hysteresis has been implemented to predict the observed trajectories, using a set of experimental first¿order reversal curves as input data. Explicit formulas have been derived giving all trajectories in terms of this data set, with no adjustable parameters. Comparison between experimental and calculated trajectories shows a much better agreement for descending than for ascending paths, an indication of a dissymmetry between the dissipation mechanisms operative in forward and reverse directions of martensitic transformation.

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A stochastic nonlinear partial differential equation is constructed for two different models exhibiting self-organized criticality: the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381 (1987); Phys. Rev. A 38, 364 (1988)] and the Zhang model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 63, 470 (1989)]. The dynamic renormalization group (DRG) enables one to compute the critical exponents. However, the nontrivial stable fixed point of the DRG transformation is unreachable for the original parameters of the models. We introduce an alternative regularization of the step function involved in the threshold condition, which breaks the symmetry of the BTW model. Although the symmetry properties of the two models are different, it is shown that they both belong to the same universality class. In this case the DRG procedure leads to a symmetric behavior for both models, restoring the broken symmetry, and makes accessible the nontrivial fixed point. This technique could also be applied to other problems with threshold dynamics.

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This paper explores analytically the contemporary pottery-making community of Pereruela (north-west Spain) that produces cooking pots from a mixture of red clay and kaolin. Analyses by different techniques (XRF, NAA, XRD, SEM and petrography) showed an extremely high variability for cooking ware pottery produced in a single production centre, by the same technology and using local clays. The main source of chemical variation is related to the use of different red clays and the presence of non-normally distributed inclusions of monazite. These two factors induce a high chemical variability, not only in the output of a single production centre, but even in the paste of a single pot, to an extent to which chemical compositions from one"workshop", or even one"pot", could be classified as having different provenances. The implications for the chemical characterization and for provenance studies of archaeological ceramics are addressed.

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Describimos la distribución espacial de individuos de Pinus uncinata clasificados según su forma de crecimiento y tamaño en dos ecotonos poco perturbados del límite altitudinal del árbol situados en los Pirineos Centrales españoles (Ordesa, O; Tessó, T). En cada sitio situamos una parcela rectangular (30 140 m), que incluía los límites del árbol y del bosque, y cuyo lado mayor seguía el gradiente altitudinal. En ambos sitios, los individuos vivos eran más grandes y tenían un mayor número de cohortes de acículas pendiente abajo. La distribución de las clases de individuos según su forma de crecimiento y tamaño en el sitio O seguía una secuencia de mayor tamaño pendiente abajo, desde abundantes individuos policórmicos arbustivos (krummholz) con pocas cohortes de acículas (1-3) hasta individuos arbóreos mayores unicórmicos con varias cohortes de acículas (4-12). Por el contrario, los cambios estructurales en el ecotono del sitio T fueron graduales y no siguieron de forma tan clara dicha secuencia

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We formulate a new mixing model to explore hydrological and chemical conditions under which the interface between the stream and catchment interface (SCI) influences the release of reactive solutes into stream water during storms. Physically, the SCI corresponds to the hyporheic/riparian sediments. In the new model this interface is coupled through a bidirectional water exchange to the conventional two components mixing model. Simulations show that the influence of the SCI on stream solute dynamics during storms is detectable when the runoff event is dominated by the infiltrated groundwater component that flows through the SCI before entering the stream and when the flux of solutes released from SCI sediments is similar to, or higher than, the solute flux carried by the groundwater. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate data from two small Mediterranean streams obtained during storms are compared to results from simulations using the new model to discern the circumstances under which the SCI is likely to control the dynamics of reactive solutes in streams. The simulations and the comparisons with empirical data suggest that the new mixing model may be especially appropriate for streams in which the periodic, or persistent, abrupt changes in the level of riparian groundwater exert hydrologic control on flux of biologically reactive fluxes between the riparian/hyporheic compartment and the stream water.

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Sagitta setosa is a neritic Chaetognath exhibiting a discontinuous geographic distribution. To assess the influence of its discontinuous geographic distribution on morphometric variability between isolated populations, we conducted a biometric study of S. setosa from three different locations: Goteborg and Plymouth (North Atlantic) and Barcelona ( Western Mediterranean). Out results do indicate some disparity between the populations that is reflected not in size differences, largely determined by water temperature, but in shape (body proportions).