80 resultados para Uncertainty with Respect to the Future
Resumo:
Using a panel of 48 provinces for four years we empirically analyze a series of temporary policies aimed at curbing fuel consumption implemented in Spain between March and June 2011. The first policy was a reduction in the speed limit in highways. The second policy was an increase in the biofuel content of fuels used in the transport sector. The third measure was a reduction of 5% in commuting and regional train fares that resulted in two major metropolitan areas reducing their overall fare for public transit. The results indicate that the speed limit reduction in highways reduced gasoline consumption by between 2% and 3%, while an increase in the biofuel content of gasoline increased this consumption. This last result is consistent with experimental evidence that indicates that mileage per liter falls with an increase in the biofuel content in gasolines. As for the reduction in transit fares, we do not find a significant effect for this policy. However, in specifications including the urban transit fare for the major cities in each province the estimated cross-price elasticity of the demand for gasoline -used as a proxy for car use- with respect to the price of transit is within the range reported in the literature. This is important since one of the main eficiency justification for subsidizing public transit rests on the positive value of this parameter and most of the estimates reported in the literature are quite dated.
Resumo:
The genetic characterization of Native Mexicans is important to understand multiethnic based features influencing the medical genetics of present Mexican populations, as well as to the reconstruct the peopling of the Americas. We describe the Y-chromosome genetic diversity of 197 Native Mexicans from 11 populations and 1,044 individuals from 44 Native American populations after combining with publicly available data. We found extensive heterogeneity among Native Mexican populations and ample segregation of Q-M242* (46%) and Q-M3 (54%) haplogroups within Mexico. The northernmost sampled populations falling outside Mesoamerica (Pima and Tarahumara) showed a clear differentiation with respect to the other populations, which is in agreement with previous results from mtDNA lineages. However, our results point toward a complex genetic makeup of Native Mexicans whose maternal and paternal lineages reveal different narratives of their population history, with sex-biased continental contributions and different admixture proportions. At a continental scale, we found that Arctic populations and the northernmost groups from North America cluster together, but we did not find a clear differentiation within Mesoamerica and the rest of the continent, which coupled with the fact that the majority of individuals from Central and South American samples are restricted to the Q-M3 branch, supports the notion that most Native Americans from Mesoamerica southwards are descendants from a single wave of migration. This observation is compatible with the idea that present day Mexico might have constituted an area of transition in the diversification of paternal lineages during the colonization of the Americas.
Resumo:
The optimization of the pilot overhead in single-user wireless fading channels is investigated, and the dependence of this overhead on various system parameters of interest (e.g., fading rate, signal-to-noise ratio) is quantified. The achievable pilot-based spectral efficiency is expanded with respect to the fading rate about the no-fading point, which leads to an accurate order expansion for the pilot overhead. This expansion identifies that the pilot overhead, as well as the spectral efficiency penalty with respect to a reference system with genie-aided CSI (channel state information) at the receiver, depend on the square root of the normalized Doppler frequency. It is also shown that the widely-used block fading model is a special case of more accurate continuous fading models in terms of the achievable pilot-based spectral efficiency. Furthermore, it is established that the overhead optimization for multiantenna systems is effectively the same as for single-antenna systems with the normalized Doppler frequency multiplied by the number of transmit antennas.
Resumo:
The optimization of the pilot overhead in wireless fading channels is investigated, and the dependence of this overhead on various system parameters of interest (e.g., fading rate, signal-to-noise ratio) is quantified. The achievable pilot-based spectral efficiency is expanded with respect to the fading rate about the no-fading point, which leads to an accurate order expansion for the pilot overhead. This expansion identifies that the pilot overhead, as well as the spectral efficiency penalty with respect to a reference system with genie-aided CSI (channel state information) at the receiver, depend on the square root of the normalized Doppler frequency. It is also shown that the widely-usedblock fading model is a special case of more accurate continuous fading models in terms of the achievable pilot-based spectral efficiency. Furthermore, it is established that the overhead optimization for multiantenna systems is effectively the same as for single-antenna systems with thenormalized Doppler frequency multiplied by the number of transmit antennas.
Resumo:
According to the Taylor principle a central bank should adjust the nominal interest rate by more than one-for-one in response to changes in current inflation. Most of the existing literature supports the view that by following this simple recommendation a central bank can avoid being a source of unnecessary fluctuations in economic activity. The present paper shows that this conclusion is not robust with respect to the modelling of capital accumulation. We use our insights to discuss the desirability of alternative interest rate rules. Our results suggest a reinterpretation of monetary policy under Volcker and Greenspan: The empirically plausible characterization of monetary policy can explain the stabilization of macroeconomic outcomes observed in the early eighties for the US economy. The Taylor principle in itself cannot.
Resumo:
This paper studies the determinants of school choice, focusing on the role of information. Weconsider how parents' search efforts and their capacity to process information (i.e., tocorrectly assess schools) affect the quality of the schools they choose for their children. Usinga novel dataset, we are able to identify parents' awareness of schools in their neighborhoodand measure their capacity to rank the quality of the school with respect to the officialrankings. We find that parents education and wealth are important factors in determiningtheir level of school awareness and information gathering. Moreover, these search effortshave important consequences in terms of the quality of school choice.
Resumo:
The organizational design of research and development conditions theincentives of the researchers of the research project. In particular,the organizational form determines the allocation of effort of theresearcher between time spent on research and time spent lobbying management. Researchers prefer to spend their time on research. However,the researchers only get utility from performing research if theproject is approved for its full duration. Spending time lobbyingmanagement for the continuation of the researcher s project increasesthe probability that the management observes a favorable signal aboutthe project. Organizing a research joint venture increases theflexibility of the organizational form with respect to the continuationdecision. For low correlation between the signals of the partners aboutthe expected profitability of the project, we find that the organizationof a research joint venture reduces influence activity by the researchersand increases expected profits of the partners. For high correlationbetween the signals, internal research projects lower influence activityby the researchers. We try to relate the correlation of the partnerssignals to the characteristics of basic research versus more appliedresearch projects, and find that the model is consistent with theobservation that research joint ventures seem involved in more basicresearch projects compared to internal R&D departments, whichconcentrate on more applied research.
Resumo:
According to the Taylor principle a central bank should adjust the nominal interest rate by more than one-for-one in response to changes in current inflation. Most of the existing literature supports the view that by following this simple recommendation a central bank can avoid being a source of unnecessary fluctuations in economic activity. The present paper shows that this conclusion is not robust with respect to the modelling of capital accumulation. We use our insights to discuss the desirability of alternative interest raterules. Our results suggest a reinterpretation of monetary policy under Volcker and Greenspan: The empirically plausible characterization of monetary policy can explain the stabilization of macroeconomic outcomes observed in the early eighties for the US economy. The Taylor principle in itself cannot.
Resumo:
In this paper we explore the effects of the minimum pension program on welfare andretirement in Spain. This is done with a stylized life-cycle model which provides a convenient analytical characterization of optimal behavior. We use data from the Spanish Social Security to estimate the behavioral parameters of the model and then simulate the changes induced by the minimum pension in aggregate retirement patterns. The impact is substantial: there is threefold increase in retirement at 60 (the age of first entitlement) with respect to the economy without minimum pensions, and total early retirement (before or at 60) is almost 50% larger.
Resumo:
We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.
Resumo:
The influence of the basis set size and the correlation energy in the static electrical properties of the CO molecule is assessed. In particular, we have studied both the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the static molecular electrical properties, the vibrational Stark effect (VSE) and the vibrational intensity effect (VIE). From a mathematical point of view, when a static and uniform electric field is applied to a molecule, the energy of this system can be expressed in terms of a double power series with respect to the bond length and to the field strength. From the power series expansion of the potential energy, field-dependent expressions for the equilibrium geometry, for the potential energy and for the force constant are obtained. The nuclear relaxation and vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties are analyzed in terms of the derivatives of the electronic molecular properties. In general, the results presented show that accurate inclusion of the correlation energy and large basis sets are needed to calculate the molecular electrical properties and their derivatives with respect to either nuclear displacements or/and field strength. With respect to experimental data, the calculated power series coefficients are overestimated by the SCF, CISD, and QCISD methods. On the contrary, perturbation methods (MP2 and MP4) tend to underestimate them. In average and using the 6-311 + G(3df) basis set and for the CO molecule, the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties amount to 11.7%, 3.3%, and 69.7% of the purely electronic μ, α, and β values, respectively
Resumo:
Cork is the bark of the cork oak tree (Quercus suber L), a renewable and biodegradable raw bioresource concentrated mainly in the Mediterranean region. Development of its potential uses as a biosorbent will require the investigation of its chemical composition; such information can be of help to understand its interactions with organic pollutants. The present study investigates the summative chemical composition of three bark layers (back, cork, and belly) of five Spanish cork samples and one cork sample from Portugal. Suberin was the main component in all the samples (21.1 to 53.1%), followed by lignin (14.8 to 31%), holocellulose (2.3 to 33.6%), extractives (7.3 to 20.4%), and ash (0.4 to 3.3%). The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to determine whether the variations in chemical composition with respect to the production area and bark layers were significant. The results indicate that, with respect to the bark layer, significant differences were found only for suberin and holocellulose contents: they were higher in the belly and cork than in the back. Based on the results presented, cork is a material with a lot of potential because of its heterogeneity in chemical composition
Resumo:
Els objectius d'aquest informe són realitzar un estudi de la tècnica en la digitalització, l'emmagatzematge i l'accés a les tesis doctorals electròniques, per tal de fer una proposta d’organització al Consorci de Biblioteques Universitàries de Catalunya (CBUC). Actualment, tot i que existeixen diverses iniciatives a Europa, és als EUA on la digitalització de tesis doctorals s’ha desenvolupat més amb la creació de la Networked Digital Library for Theses and Dissertation (NDLTD), i ha estat qui ha definit els estàndards en aquest camp. En el següent informe es planteja i es recomana al CBUC l’adhesió institucional a l’NDLTD per poder gaudir de la seva experiència.
Resumo:
A new statistical parallax method using the Maximum Likelihood principle is presented, allowing the simultaneous determination of a luminosity calibration, kinematic characteristics and spatial distribution of a given sample. This method has been developed for the exploitation of the Hipparcos data and presents several improvements with respect to the previous ones: the effects of the selection of the sample, the observational errors, the galactic rotation and the interstellar absorption are taken into account as an intrinsic part of the formulation (as opposed to external corrections). Furthermore, the method is able to identify and characterize physically distinct groups in inhomogeneous samples, thus avoiding biases due to unidentified components. Moreover, the implementation used by the authors is based on the extensive use of numerical methods, so avoiding the need for simplification of the equations and thus the bias they could introduce. Several examples of application using simulated samples are presented, to be followed by applications to real samples in forthcoming articles.
Resumo:
The action of botulinum neurotoxin on acetylcholine release, and on the structural changes at the presynaptic membrane associated with the transmitter release,was studied by using a subcellular fraction of cholinergic nerve terminals (synaptosomes) isolated from the Torpedo electric organ. Acetylcholine and ATP release were continuously monitored by chemiluminescent methods.To catch the membrane morphological changes, the quick-freezing method was applied. Our results show that botulinum neurotoxin inhibits the release of acetylcholine from these isolated nerve terminals in a dose-dependent manner, whereas ATP release is not affected. The maximal inhibition (70%) is achieved at neurotoxin concentrations as low as 125 pM with an incubation time of 6 min. This effect is not linked to an alteration of the integrity of the synaptosomes since, after poisoning by botulinum neurotoxin type A, they show a nonmodified occluded lactate dehydrogenase activity. Moreover, membrane potential is not altered by the toxin with respect to the control, either in resting condition or after potassium depolarization. In addition to acetylcholine release inhibition, botulinum neurotoxin blocks the rearrangement of the presynaptic intramembrane particles induced by potassium stimulation. The action of botulinum neurotoxin suggests that the intramembrane particle rearrangement is related to the acetylcholine secretion induced by potassium stimulation in synaptosomes isolated from the electric organ of Torpedo marmorata.