Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the US: Positive vs. negative or big vs. small?

This paper reconsiders the empirical evidence on the asymmetricoutput effects of monetary policy. Asymmetric effects is a common feature ofmany theoretical models, and there are many different versions of suchasymmetries. We concentrate on the distinctions between positive andnegative money-supply changes, big and small changes in money-supply, andpossible combinations of the two asymmetries. Earlier research has foundempirical evidence in favor of the former of these in US data. Using M1 asthe monetary variable we find evidence in favor of neutrality of big shocksand non-neutrality of small shocks. The results may, however, be affected bystructual instability of M1 demand. Thus, we substitute M1 with the federalfunds rate. In these data we find that only small negative shocks affectreal aggregate activity. The results are interpreted in terms of menu-costmodels.

Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?

This paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in outputgrowth and inflation dynamics in the US. We identify a policy shock and a policy rule ina time-varying coefficients VAR using robust sign restrictions. The transmission of policyshocks has been relatively stable. The variance of the policy shock has decreased over time,but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflationand output growth volatility and persistence. We find little evidence of a significant increasein the long run response of the interest rate to inflation. A more aggressive inflation policyin the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs.

It's still 2%: evidence on convergence from 116 years of the US States panel data

A new debate over the speed of convergence in per capita income across economies is going on. Cross sectional estimates support the idea of slow convergence of about two percent per year. Panel data estimates support the idea of fast convergence of five, ten or even twenty percent per year. This paper shows that, if you ``do it right'', even the panel data estimation method yields the result of slow convergence of about two percent per year.

Technology diffusion and the spatial distribution of wages in the US

What explains the spatial distribution of wages across US counties? I find that two of the most important factors are spatial technology diffusion and externalities due to the aggregate scale of production. One empirical finding supporting the importance of spatial technology diffusion is that average wages in a county decrease with the average level of schooling in neighboring counties when employment in the county and average wages in neighboring counties are held constant. All empirical results are obtained using anovel instrument for (endogenous) employment at the county-leveland take into account other factors (e.g. productivity-differencesacross states, climate) that may determine wages.

Credible redistributive policies and migration across US States

Does worker mobility undermine governments ability to redistribute income? Thispaper analyzes the experience of US states in the recent decades. We build a tractablemodel where both migration decisions and redistribution policies are endogenous. Wecalibrate the model to match skill premium and worker productivity at the state level,as well as the size and skill composition of migration flows. The calibrated modelis able to reproduce the large changes in skill composition as well as key qualitativerelationships of labor flows and redistribution policies observed in the data. Our resultssuggest that regional di¤erences in labor productivity are an important determinantof interstate migration. We use the calibrated model to compare the cross-section ofredistributive policies with and without worker mobility. The main result of the paperis that interstate migration has induced substantial convergence in tax rates acrossUS states, but no race to the bottom. Skill-biased in-migration has reduced the skillpremium and the need for tax-based redistribution in the states that would have hadthe highest tax rates in the absence of mobility.

The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varyingcoefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables andin the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility,while a combination of technology, demand and monetary shocks explain variations inthe persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect changes over time in the transmission of technology shocks and in the variance of technology and of monetary policyshocks. Hours and labor productivity always increase in response to technology shocks.

What explains the Great Moderation in the US? A structural analysis

This paper investigates what has caused output and inflation volatility to fall in the USusing a small scale structural model using Bayesian techniques and rolling samples. Thereare instabilities in the posterior of the parameters describing the private sector, the policyrule and the standard deviation of the shocks. Results are robust to the specification ofthe policy rule. Changes in the parameters describing the private sector are the largest,but those of the policy rule and the covariance matrix of the shocks explain the changes most.

The transmission of US shocks to Latin America

I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin American economies. Posterior estimates for individual and average effects are constructed. US monetary shocks produce significant fluctuations in Latin America, but real demand and supply shocks do not. Floaters and currency boarders display similar output but different inflation and interest rate responses. The financial channel plays a crucial role in the transmission. US disturbances explain important portions of the variability of LatinAmerican macrovariables, producing continental cyclical fluctuations and, in two episodes, destabilizing nominal exchange rate effects. Policy implications are discussed.

The dot-com bubble, the Bush deficits and the US current account

Over the past decade the US has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming US stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing US government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is thatstock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. We challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the dot-com bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the Bush deficits). The benevolent view holds that a change in investorsentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The cynical view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. We discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the US economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position.

Indentifying human capital externalities: Theory with an application to US cities

The identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood. The existing (Mincerian) approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital. As a result, it yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products. We propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward. Another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital. Applications to US cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average -schooling externalities.

Nanotechnology: What is it and how will it affect us?

A non-technical review of nanotechnology from a Catalan perspective – its potential economic and social impacts and the potential role of public policy.

Visualitzador de molècules d'ADN per laboratori virtual

RESUM Com a continuació del treball de final de carrera “Desenvolupament d’un laboratori virtual per a les pràctiques de Biologia Molecular” de Jordi Romero, s’ha realitzat una eina complementaria per a la visualització de molècules integrada en el propi laboratori virtual. Es tracta d’una eina per a la visualització gràfica de gens, ORF, marques i seqüències de restricció de molècules reals o fictícies. El fet de poder treballar amb molècules fictícies és la gran avantatge respecte a les solucions com GENBANK que només permet treballar amb molècules pròpies. Treballar amb molècules fictícies fa que sigui una solució ideal per a l’ensenyament, ja que dóna la possibilitat als professors de realitzar exercicis o demostracions amb molècules reals o dissenyades expressament per a l’exercici a demostrar. A més, permet mostrar de forma visual les diferents parts simultàniament o per separat, de manera que ofereix una primera aproximació interpretació dels resultats. Per altra banda, permet marcar gens, crear marques, localitzar seqüències de restricció i generar els ORF de la molècula que nosaltres creem o modificar una ja existent. Per l’implementació, s’ha continuat amb l’idea de separar la part de codi i la part de disseny en les aplicacions Flash. Per fer-ho, s’ha utilitzat la plataforma de codi lliure Ariware ARPv2.02 que proposa un marc de desenvolupament d’aplicacions Flash orientades a objectes amb el codi (classes ActionScript 2.0) separats del movieclip. Per al processament de dades s’ha fet servir Perl per ser altament utilitzat en Bioinformàtica i per velocitat de càlcul. Les dades generades es guarden en una Base de Dades en MYSQL (de lliure distribució), de la que s’extreuen les dades per generar fitxers XML, fent servir tant PHP com la plataforma AMFPHP com a enllaç entre Flash i la resta de parts.

What trees tell us: dendrochronological and statistical analysis of the data

Trees are a great bank of data, named sometimes for this reason as the "silentwitnesses" of the past. Due to annual formation of rings, which is normally influenced directly by of climate parameters (generally changes in temperature and moisture or precipitation) and other environmental factors; these changes, occurred in the past, are"written" in the tree "archives" and can be "decoded" in order to interpret what hadhappened before, mainly applied for the past climate reconstruction.Using dendrochronological methods for obtaining samples of Pinus nigra fromthe Catalonian PrePirineous region, the cores of 15 trees with total time spine of about 100 - 250 years were analyzed for the tree ring width (TRW) patterns and had quite high correlation between them (0.71 ¿ 0.84), corresponding to a common behaviour for the environmental changes in their annual growth.After different trials with raw TRW data for standardization in order to take outthe negative exponential growth curve dependency, the best method of doubledetrending (power transformation and smoothing line of 32 years) were selected for obtaining the indexes for further analysis.Analyzing the cross-correlations between obtained tree ring width indexes andclimate data, significant correlations (p<0.05) were observed in some lags, as forexample, annual precipitation in lag -1 (previous year) had negative correlation with TRW growth in the Pallars region. Significant correlation coefficients are between 0.27- 0.51 (with positive or negative signs) for many cases; as for recent (but very short period) climate data of Seu d¿Urgell meteorological station, some significant correlation coefficients were observed, of the order of 0.9.These results confirm the hypothesis of using dendrochronological data as aclimate signal for further analysis, such as reconstruction of climate in the past orprediction in the future for the same locality.

Origin of a restraining bend in an evolving strike-slip system: The Cenozoic As Pontes basin (NW Spain)

The As Pontes basin (12 km2), NW Iberian Peninsula, is bounded by a double restraining bend of a dextral strike-slip fault, which is related to the western onshore end of the Pyrenean belt. Surface and subsurface data obtained from intensive coal exploration and mining in the basin since the 1960s together with additional structural and stratigraphic sequence analysis allowed us to determine the geometric relationships between tectonic structures and stratigraphic markers. The small size of the basin and the large amount of quality data make the As Pontes basin a unique natural laboratory for improving our understanding of the origin and evolution of restraining bends. The double restraining bend is the end stage of the structural evolution of a compressive underlapping stepover, where the basin was formed. During the first stage (stepover stage), which began ca. 30 Ma ago (latest Rupelian) and lasted 3.4 My, two small isolated basins bounded by thrusts and normal faults were formed. For 1.3 My, the strike-slip faults, which defined the stepover, grew towards each other until joining and forming the double restraining bend, which bounds one large As Pontes basin (transition stage). The history of the basin was controlled by the activity of the double restraining bend for a further 3.4 My (restraining bend stage) and ended in mid-Aquitanian times (ca. 22 Ma).

Plasma leptin turnover rates in lean and obese Zucker rats

Conscious female adult lean and obese Zucker rats were injected through the jugular vein with radioactive iodine-labeled murine leptin; in the ensuing 8 min, four blood samples were sequentially extracted from the carotid artery. The samples were used in a modified RIA for leptin, in which paired tubes received the same amount of either labeled or unlabeled leptin, thus allowing us to estimate both leptin levels and specific radioactivity. The data were used to determine the decay curve parameters from which the half-life of leptin (5.46 ± 0.23 min for lean rats and 6.99 ± 0.75 min for obese rats) as well as the size of its circulating pool (32 pmol/kg for lean rats and 267 pmol/kg for obese rats) and the overall degradation rate (96 fkat/kg for lean rats and 645 fkat/kg for obese rats) were estimated. These values are consistent with the hormonal role of leptin and the need for speedy changes in its levels in response to metabolic challenge.