The effects of monetary policy on stock market bubbles: Some evidence

We estimate the response of stock prices to exogenous monetary policy shocks usinga vector-autoregressive model with time-varying parameters. Our evidence points toprotracted episodes in which, after a a short-run decline, stock prices increase persistently in response to an exogenous tightening of monetary policy. That responseis clearly at odds with the "conventional" view on the effects of monetary policy onbubbles, as well as with the predictions of bubbleless models. We also argue that it isunlikely that such evidence be accounted for by an endogenous response of the equitypremium to the monetary policy shocks.

Blind channel estimation and data detection using hidden Markov models theory

In this correspondence, we propose applying the hiddenMarkov models (HMM) theory to the problem of blind channel estimationand data detection. The Baum–Welch (BW) algorithm, which is able toestimate all the parameters of the model, is enriched by introducingsome linear constraints emerging from a linear FIR hypothesis on thechannel. Additionally, a version of the algorithm that is suitable for timevaryingchannels is also presented. Performance is analyzed in a GSMenvironment using standard test channels and is found to be close to thatobtained with a nonblind receiver.

Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach

Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union -EMU-, with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries -Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain-, covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal relationship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of contagion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instruments that capture the total national debt -domestic and foreign- in each country.

Predictors and consequences of adherence to the treatment of pediatric patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in Central Europe and East Asia.

PURPOSE: To assess baseline predictors and consequences of medication non-adherence in the treatment of pediatric patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) from Central Europe and East Asia. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data for this post-hoc analysis were taken from a 1-year prospective, observational study that included a total of 1,068 newly-diagnosed pediatric patients with ADHD symptoms from Central Europe and East Asia. Medication adherence during the week prior to each visit was assessed by treating physicians using a 5-point Likert scale, and then dichotomized into either adherent or non-adherent. Clinical severity was measured by the Clinical Global Impressions-ADHD-Severity (CGI-ADHD) scale and the Child Symptom Inventory-4 (CSI-4) Checklist. Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) was measured using the Child Health and Illness Profile-Child Edition (CHIP-CE). Regression analyses were used to assess baseline predictors of overall adherence during follow-up, and the impact of time-varying adherence on subsequent outcomes: response (defined as a decrease of at least 1 point in CGI), changes in CGI-ADHD, CSI-4, and the five dimensions of CHIP-CE. RESULTS: Of the 860 patients analyzed, 64.5% (71.6% in Central Europe and 55.5% in East Asia) were rated as adherent and 35.5% as non-adherent during follow-up. Being from East Asia was found to be a strong predictor of non-adherence. In East Asia, a family history of ADHD and parental emotional distress were associated with non-adherence, while having no other children living at home was associated with non-adherence in Central Europe as well as in the overall sample. Non-adherence was associated with poorer response and less improvement on CGI-ADHD and CSI-4, but not on CHIP-CE. CONCLUSION: Non-adherence to medication is common in the treatment of ADHD, particularly in East Asia. Non-adherence was associated with poorer response and less improvement in clinical severity. A limitation of this study is that medication adherence was assessed by the treating clinician using a single item question.

Interrogating eleven fast-evolving genes for signatures of recent positive selection in worldwide human populations

Different signatures of natural selection persist over varying time scales in our genome, revealing possible episodes of adaptative evolution during human history. Here, we identify genes showing signatures of ancestral positive selection in the human lineage and investigate whether some of those genes have been evolving adaptatively in extant human populations. Specifically, we compared more than 11,000 human genes with their orthologs inchimpanzee, mouse, rat and dog and applied a branch-site likelihood method to test for positive selection on the human lineage. Among the significant cases, a robust set of 11 genes were then further explored for signatures of recent positive selection using SNP data. We genotyped 223 SNPs in 39 worldwide populations from the HGDP Diversity panel and supplemented this information with available genotypes for up to 4,814 SNPs distributed along 2 Mb centered on each gene. After exploring the allele frequency spectrum, population differentiation and the maintainance of long unbroken haplotypes, we found signals of recent adaptative phenomena in only one of the 11 candidate gene regions. However, the signal ofrecent selection in this region may come from a different, neighbouring gene (CD5) ratherthan from the candidate gene itself (VPS37C). For this set of positively-selected genes in thehuman lineage, we find no indication that these genes maintained their rapid evolutionarypace among human populations. Based on these data, it therefore appears that adaptation forhuman-specific and for population-specific traits may have involved different genes.

Selection of internal control genes for real-time quantitative PCR in ovary and uterus of sows across pregnancy

Reproductive traits play a key role in pig production in order to reduce costs and increase economic returns. Among others, gene expression analyses represent a useful approach to study genetic mechanisms underlying reproductive traits in pigs. The application of reverse-transcription quantitative PCR requires the selection of appropriate reference genes, whose expression levels should not be affected by the experimental conditions, especially when comparing gene expression across different physiological stages.

Polynomial-time complexity for instances of the endomorphism problem in free groups

We say the endomorphism problem is solvable for an element W in a free group F if it can be decided effectively whether, given U in F, there is an endomorphism Φ of F sending W to U. This work analyzes an approach due to C. Edmunds and improved by C. Sims. Here we prove that the approach provides an efficient algorithm for solving the endomorphism problem when W is a two- generator word. We show that when W is a two-generator word this algorithm solves the problem in time polynomial in the length of U. This result gives a polynomial-time algorithm for solving, in free groups, two-variable equations in which all the variables occur on one side of the equality and all the constants on the other side.

Entry and market selection of firms: a laboratory study

We study competition in experimental markets in which two incumbents face entry by three other firms. Our treatments vary with respect to three factors: sequential vs. block or simultaneous entry, the cost functions of entrants and the amount of time during which incumbents are protected from entry. Before entry incumbents are able to collude in all cases. When all firms' costs are the same entry always leads consumer surplus and profits to their equilibrium levels. When entrants are more efficient than incumbents, entry leads consumer surplus to equilibrium. However, total profits remain below equilibrium, due to the fact that the inefficient incumbents produce too much and efficient entrants produce too little. Market behavior is satisfactory from the consumers' standpoint, but does not yield adequate signals to other potential entrants. These results are not affected by whether entry is simultaneous or sequential. The length of the incumbency phase does have some subtle effects.

The Part-time pay penalty in a segmented labor market

This paper is the first to examine the implications of switching to PT work for women's subsequent earnings trajectories, distinguishing by their type of contract: permanent or fixedterm. Using a rich longitudinal Spanish data set from Social Security records of over 76,000 prime-aged women strongly attached to the Spanish labor market, we find that PT work aggravates the segmentation of the labor market insofar there is a PT pay penalty and this penalty is larger and more persistent in the case of women with fixed-term contracts. The paper discusses problems arising in empirical estimation (including a problem not discussed in the literature up to now: the differential measurement error of the LHS variable by PT status), and how to address them. It concludes with policy implications relevant for Continental Europe and its dual structure of employment protection.

Trade, firm selection, and innovation: the competition channel

The availability of rich firm-level data sets has recently led researchers to uncover new evidence on the effects of trade liberalization. First, trade openness forces the least productive firms to exit the market. Secondly, it induces surviving firms to increase their innovation efforts and thirdly, it increases the degree of product market competition. In this paper we propose a model aimed at providing a coherent interpretation of these findings. We introducing firm heterogeneity into an innovation-driven growth model, where incumbent firms operating in oligopolistic industries perform cost-reducing innovations. In this framework, trade liberalization leads to higher product market competition, lower markups and higher quantity produced. These changes in markups and quantities, in turn, promote innovation and productivity growth through a direct competition effect, based on the increase in the size of the market, and a selection effect, produced by the reallocation of resources towards more productive firms. Calibrated to match US aggregate and firm-level statistics, the model predicts that a 10 percent reduction in variable trade costs reduces markups by 1:15 percent, firm surviving probabilities by 1 percent, and induces an increase in productivity growth of about 13 percent. More than 90 percent of the trade-induced growth increase can be attributed to the selection effect.

Existence and uniqueness of viscosity solution for Hamilton-Jacobi equation with discontinuous coefficients dependent on time

The main result is a proof of the existence of a unique viscosity solution for Hamilton-Jacobi equation, where the hamiltonian is discontinuous with respect to variable, usually interpreted as the spatial one. Obtained generalized solution is continuous, but not necessarily differentiable.

Multivariate ARIMA Compositional Time Series Analysis

A compositional time series is obtained when a compositional data vector is observed atdifferent points in time. Inherently, then, a compositional time series is a multivariatetime series with important constraints on the variables observed at any instance in time.Although this type of data frequently occurs in situations of real practical interest, atrawl through the statistical literature reveals that research in the field is very much in itsinfancy and that many theoretical and empirical issues still remain to be addressed. Anyappropriate statistical methodology for the analysis of compositional time series musttake into account the constraints which are not allowed for by the usual statisticaltechniques available for analysing multivariate time series. One general approach toanalyzing compositional time series consists in the application of an initial transform tobreak the positive and unit sum constraints, followed by the analysis of the transformedtime series using multivariate ARIMA models. In this paper we discuss the use of theadditive log-ratio, centred log-ratio and isometric log-ratio transforms. We also presentresults from an empirical study designed to explore how the selection of the initialtransform affects subsequent multivariate ARIMA modelling as well as the quality ofthe forecasts

N-dimensional dynamical systems exploiting instabilities in full

We report experimental and numerical results showing how certain N-dimensional dynamical systems are able to exhibit complex time evolutions based on the nonlinear combination of N-1 oscillation modes. The experiments have been done with a family of thermo-optical systems of effective dynamical dimension varying from 1 to 6. The corresponding mathematical model is an N-dimensional vector field based on a scalar-valued nonlinear function of a single variable that is a linear combination of all the dynamic variables. We show how the complex evolutions appear associated with the occurrence of successive Hopf bifurcations in a saddle-node pair of fixed points up to exhaust their instability capabilities in N dimensions. For this reason the observed phenomenon is denoted as the full instability behavior of the dynamical system. The process through which the attractor responsible for the observed time evolution is formed may be rather complex and difficult to characterize. Nevertheless, the well-organized structure of the time signals suggests some generic mechanism of nonlinear mode mixing that we associate with the cluster of invariant sets emerging from the pair of fixed points and with the influence of the neighboring saddle sets on the flow nearby the attractor. The generation of invariant tori is likely during the full instability development and the global process may be considered as a generalized Landau scenario for the emergence of irregular and complex behavior through the nonlinear superposition of oscillatory motions

Optimal Contracts, Adverse Selection, and Social Preferences: An Experiment

It has long been standard in agency theory to search for incentive-compatible mechanisms on the assumption that people care only about their own material wealth. However, this assumption is clearly refuted by numerous experiments, and we feel that it may be useful to consider nonpecuniary utility in mechanism design and contract theory. Accordingly, we devise an experiment to explore optimal contracts in an adverse-selection context. A principal proposes one of three contract menus, each of which offers a choice of two incentive-compatible contracts, to two agents whose types are unknown to the principal. The agents know the set of possible menus, and choose to either accept one of the two contracts offered in the proposed menu or to reject the menu altogether; a rejection by either agent leads to lower (and equal) reservation payoffs for all parties. While all three possible menus favor the principal, they do so to varying degrees. We observe numerous rejections of the more lopsided menus, and approach an equilibrium where one of the more equitable contract menus (which one depends on the reservation payoffs) is proposed and agents accept a contract, selecting actions according to their types. Behavior is largely consistent with all recent models of social preferences, strongly suggesting there is value in considering nonpecuniary utility in agency theory.

Optimal contracts, adverse selection and social preferences: An experiment

It has long been standard in agency theory to search for incentive-compatible mechanisms on the assumption that people care only about their own material wealth. However, this assumption is clearly refuted by numerous experiments, and we feel that it may be useful to consider nonpecuniary utility in mechanism design and contract theory. Accordingly, we devise an experiment to explore optimal contracts in an adverse-selection context. A principal proposes one of three contract menus, each of which offers a choice of two incentive-compatible contracts, to two agents whose types are unknown to the principal. The agents know the set of possible menus, and choose to either accept one of the two contracts offered in the proposed menu or to reject the menu altogether; a rejection by either agent leads to lower (and equal) reservation payoffs for all parties. While all three possible menus favor the principal, they do so to varying degrees. We observe numerous rejections of the more lopsided menus, and approach an equilibrium where one of the more equitable contract menus (which one depends on the reservation payoffs) is proposed and agents accept a contract, selecting actions according to their types. Behavior is largely consistent with all recent models of social preferences, strongly suggesting there is value in considering nonpecuniary utility in agency theory.