Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the US: Positive vs. negative or big vs. small?

This paper reconsiders the empirical evidence on the asymmetricoutput effects of monetary policy. Asymmetric effects is a common feature ofmany theoretical models, and there are many different versions of suchasymmetries. We concentrate on the distinctions between positive andnegative money-supply changes, big and small changes in money-supply, andpossible combinations of the two asymmetries. Earlier research has foundempirical evidence in favor of the former of these in US data. Using M1 asthe monetary variable we find evidence in favor of neutrality of big shocksand non-neutrality of small shocks. The results may, however, be affected bystructual instability of M1 demand. Thus, we substitute M1 with the federalfunds rate. In these data we find that only small negative shocks affectreal aggregate activity. The results are interpreted in terms of menu-costmodels.

Why ethnic fractionalization? Polarization, ethnic conflict and growth

This paper ia an attempt to clarify the relationship between fractionalization,polarization and conflict. The literature on the measurement of ethnic diversityhas taken as given that the proper measure for heterogeneity can be calculatedby using the fractionalization index. This index is widely used in industrialeconomics and, for empirical purposes, the ethnolinguistic fragmentation isready available for regression exercises. Nevertheless the adequacy of asynthetic index of hetergeneity depends on the intrinsic characteristicsof the heterogeneous dimension to be measured. In the case of ethnicdiversity there is a very strong conflictive dimension. For this reasonwe argue that the measure of heterogeneity should be one of the class ofpolarization measures. In fact the intuition of the relationship betweenconflict and fractionalization do not hold for more than two groups. Incontrast with the usual problem of polarization indices, which are ofdifficult empirical implementation without making some arbitrary choiceof parameters, we show that the RQ index, proposed by Reynal-Querol (2002),is the only discrete polarization measure that satisfies the basic propertiesof polarization. Additionally we present a derivation of the RQ index froma simple rent seeking model. In the empirical section we show that whileethnic polarization has a positive effect on civil wars and, indirectly ongrowth, this effect is not present when we use ethnic fractionalization.

Long-run selection and the work ethic

That individuals contribute in social dilemma interactions even when contributing is costly is a well-established observation in the experimental literature. Since a contributor is always strictly worse off than a non-contributor the question is raised if an intrinsic motivation to contribute can survive in an evolutionary setting. Using recent results on deterministic approximation of stochastic evolutionary dynamics we give conditions for equilibria with a positive number of contributors to be selected in the long run.

A measure of rationality and welfare

There is evidence showing that individual behavior often deviates fromthe classical principle of maximization. This evidence raises at least two importantquestions: (i) how severe the deviations are and (ii) which method is the best forextracting relevant information from choice behavior for the purposes of welfare analysis.In this paper we address these two questions by identifying from a foundationalanalysis a new measure of the rationality of individuals that enables the analysis ofindividual welfare in potentially inconsistent subjects, all based on standard revealedpreference data. We call such measure minimal index.

Regional differences in socio-economic health inequalities in Spain

This paper reports an analysis of income related health inequalities at the AutonomousCommunity level in Spain using the self assessed health measure in the 2001 edition of theEncuesta Nacional de Salud. We use recently developed methods in order to cardinalise andmodel self assessed health within a regression framework, decompose the sources ofinequality and explain the observed differences across regions. We find that the regions with the highest levels of mean health tend to enjoy the lowest degrees of income related health inequality and vice-versa. The main feature characterizing regions where income related health inequality is low is the absence of a positive gradient between income and health. In turn, the regions where income related health inequality is greater are characterized by a strong and significant positive gradient between health and income. These results suggest that policies aimed at eliminating the gradient between health and income can potentially lead to greate r reductions in socio-economic health inequalities than policies aimed at redistributing income.

A positive theory of geographic mobility and social insurance

This paper presents a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model thatcan explain cross-country empirical regularities in geographical mobility,unemployment and labor market institutions. Rational agents vote overunemployment insurance (UI), taking the dynamic distortionary effects ofinsurance on the performance of the labor market into consideration.Agents with higher cost of moving, i.e., more attached to their currentlocation, prefer more generous UI. The key assumption is that an agent'sattachment to a location increases the longer she has resided there. UIreduces the incentive for labor mobility and increases, therefore, thefraction of attached agents and the political support for UI. The mainresult is that this self-reinforcing mechanism can give rise to multiplesteady-states-one 'European' steady-state featuring high unemployment,low geographical mobility and high unemployment insurance, and one'American' steady-state featuring low unemployment, high mobility andlow unemployment insurance.

The aggregate claims distribution of a life insurance portfolio with a pairwise positive dependence structure

The individual life model has always been considered as the one closest to the real situation of the total claims of a life insurance portfolio. It only makes the ¿nearly inevitable assumption¿ of independence of the lifelenghts of insured persons in the portfolio. Many clinical studies, however, have demonstrated positive dependence of paired lives such as husband and wife. In our opinion, it won¿t be unrealistic expecting a considerable number of married couples in any life insurance portfolio (e.g. life insurance contracts formalized at the time of signing a mortatge) and these dependences materially increase the values for the stop-loss premiums associated to the aggregate claims of the portfolio. Since the stop-loss order is the order followed by any risk averse decison maker, the simplifying hypothesis of independence constitute a real financial danger for the company, in the sense that most of their decisions are based on the aggregated claims distribution. In this paper, we will determine approximations for the distribution of the aggregate claims of a life insurance portfolio with some married couples and we will describe how to make safe decisions when we don¿t know exactly the dependence structure between the risks in each couple. Results in this paper are partly based on results in Dhaene and Goovaerts (1997)

A Note on Shapley's convex measure games

L. S. Shapley, in his paper 'Cores of Convex Games', introduces Convex Measure Games, those that are induced by a convex function on R, acting over a measure on the coalitions. But in a note he states that if this function is a function of several variables, then convexity for the function does not imply convexity of the game or even superadditivity. We prove that if the function is directionally convex, the game is convex, and conversely, any convex game can be induced by a directionally convex function acting over measures on the coalitions, with as many measures as players

The aggregate claims distribution of a life insurance portfolio with a pairwise positive dependence structure

The individual life model has always been considered as the one closest to the real situation of the total claims of a life insurance portfolio. It only makes the ¿nearly inevitable assumption¿ of independence of the lifelenghts of insured persons in the portfolio. Many clinical studies, however, have demonstrated positive dependence of paired lives such as husband and wife. In our opinion, it won¿t be unrealistic expecting a considerable number of married couples in any life insurance portfolio (e.g. life insurance contracts formalized at the time of signing a mortatge) and these dependences materially increase the values for the stop-loss premiums associated to the aggregate claims of the portfolio. Since the stop-loss order is the order followed by any risk averse decison maker, the simplifying hypothesis of independence constitute a real financial danger for the company, in the sense that most of their decisions are based on the aggregated claims distribution. In this paper, we will determine approximations for the distribution of the aggregate claims of a life insurance portfolio with some married couples and we will describe how to make safe decisions when we don¿t know exactly the dependence structure between the risks in each couple. Results in this paper are partly based on results in Dhaene and Goovaerts (1997)

A Note on Shapley's convex measure games

L. S. Shapley, in his paper 'Cores of Convex Games', introduces Convex Measure Games, those that are induced by a convex function on R, acting over a measure on the coalitions. But in a note he states that if this function is a function of several variables, then convexity for the function does not imply convexity of the game or even superadditivity. We prove that if the function is directionally convex, the game is convex, and conversely, any convex game can be induced by a directionally convex function acting over measures on the coalitions, with as many measures as players

RTS,S/AS02A malaria vaccine does not induce parasite CSP T cell epitope selection and reduces multiplicity of infection

Objective: The candidate malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS02A is a recombinant protein containing part of the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) sequence of Plasmodium falciparum, linked to the hepatitis B surface antigen and formulated in the proprietary adjuvant system AS02A. In a recent trial conducted in children younger than age five in southern Mozambique, the vaccinedemonstrated significant and sustained efficacy against both infection and clinical disease. In a follow-up study to the main trial, breakthrough infections identified in the trial were examined to determine whether the distribution of csp sequences was affected by the vaccine and to measure the multiplicity of infecting parasite genotypes. Design: P. falciparum DNA from isolates collected during the trial was used for genotype studies. Setting: The main trial was carried out in the Manhiça district, Maputo province, Mozambique, between April 2003 and May 2004. Participants: Children from the two cohorts of the main trial provided parasite isolates as follows: children from Cohort 1 who were admitted to hospital with clinical malaria; children from Cohort 1 who were parasite-positive in a cross-sectional survey at study month 8.5; children from Cohort 2 identified as parasite-positive during follow-up by active detection of infection. Outcome: Divergence of DNA sequence encoding the CSP T cell-epitope region sequence from that of the vaccine sequence was measured in 521 isolates. The number of distinct P. falciparum genotypes was also determined. Results: We found no evidence that parasite genotypes from children in the RTS,S/AS02A arm were more divergent than those receiving control vaccines. For Cohort 1 (survey at studymonth 8.5) and Cohort 2, infections in the vaccine group contained significantly fewer genotypes than those in the control group, (p 1/4 0.035, p 1/4 0.006), respectively, for the two cohorts. This was not the case for children in Cohort 1 who were admitted to hospital (p 1/4 0.478). Conclusions: RTS,S/AS02A did not select for genotypes encoding divergent T cell epitopes in the C-terminal region of CSP in this trial. In both cohorts, there was a modest reduction in the mean number of parasite genotypes harboured by vaccinated children compared with controls, but only among those with asymptomatic infections.

Effects of riparian vegetation removal on nutrient retention in a Mediterranean stream

We examined the effects of riparian vegetation removal on algal dynamics and stream nutrient retention efficiency by comparing NH4-N and PO4-P uptake lengths from a logged and an unlogged reach in Riera Major, a forested Mediterranean stream in northeastern Spain. From June to September 1995, we executed 6 short-term additions of N (as NH4Cl) and P (as Na2HPO4) in a 200-m section to measure nutrient uptake lengths. The study site included 2 clearly differentiated reaches in terms of canopy cover by riparian trees: the first 100 m were completely logged (i.e., the logged reach) and the remaining 100 m were left intact (i.e., the shaded reach). Trees were removed from the banks of the logged reach in the winter previous to our sampling. In the shaded reach, riparian vegetation was dominated by alders (Alnus glutinosa). The study was conducted during summer and fall months when differences in light availability between the 2 reaches were greatest because of forest canopy conditions. Algal biomass and % of stream surface covered by algae were higher in the logged than in the shaded reach, indicating that logging had a stimulatory effect on algae in the stream. Overall, nutrient retention efficiency was higher (i.e., shorter uptake lengths) in the logged than in the shaded reach, especially for PO4-P. Despite a greater increase in PO4-P retention efficiency relative to that of NH4-N following logging, retention efficiency for NH4-N was higher than for PO4-P in both study reaches. The PO4-P mass-transfer coefficient was correlated with primary production in both study reaches, indicating that algal activity plays an important role in controlling PO4-P dynamics in this stream. In contrast, the NH4-N mass-transfer coefficient showed a positive relation-ship only with % of algal coverage in the logged reach, and was not correlated with any algal-related parameter in the shaded reach. The lack of correlation with algal production suggests that mechanisms other than algal activity (i.e., microbial heterotrophic processes or abiotic mechanisms) may also influence NH4-N retention in this stream. Overall, this study shows that logging disturbances in small shaded streams may alter in-stream ecological features that lead to changes in stream nutrient retention efficiency. Moreover, it emphasizes that alteration of the tight linkage between the stream channel and the adjacent riparian zone may directly and indirectly impact biogeochemical processes with implications for stream ecosystem functioning.

A measure of group dissimilarity for psychological attributes

El funcionamiento y el rendimiento de los grupos en contextos diferentes están relacionados con el grado en que las características de los miembros son complementarias o suplementarias. El presente artículo describe un procedimiento para cuantificar el grado de disimilitud a nivel de grupo. A diferencia de la mayoría de técnicas existentes, el procedimiento que aquí se describe está normalizado y es invariante a los cambios de localización y escala. Por lo tanto, es posible comparar la disimilitud en escalas con diferente métrica y en grupos de distinto tamaño. La disimilitud está medida en términos relativos, independientemente de la posición que ocupan los individuos en la dimensión que mide la escala. Cuando no existe una justificación teórica para combinar las diversas propiedades medidas, se puede cuantificar la disimilitud para cada escala por separado. También es posible obtener las contribuciones diádicas e individuales respecto a la diversidad global y la asignada a cada escala. Las medidas descriptivas pueden ser complementadas con la significación estadística para, así, comparar los resultados obtenidos con distribuciones discretas de referencia, ya sean simétricas o asimétricas. Se ha elaborado un paquete en R que permite obtener los índices descriptivos y los valores p, además de contener las expresiones desarrolladas para simular una amplia variedad de distribuciones discretas de probabilidad.