Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Ultrastructural study of spermiogenesis and the spermatozoon of the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009, a parasite of the catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) (Siluriformes, Clariidae)

Spermiogenesis in the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009 shows typical characteristics of the type I spermiogenesis. These include the formation of distal cytoplasmic protrusions forming the differentiation zones, lined by cortical microtubules and containing two centrioles. An electron-dense material is present in the apical region of the differentiation zone during the early stages of spermiogenesis. Each centriole is associated to a striated rootlet, being separated by an intercentriolar body. Two free and unequal flagella originate from the centrioles and develop on the lateral sides of the differentiation zone. A median cytoplasmic process is formed between the flagella. Later these flagella rotate, become parallel to the median cytoplasmic process and finally fuse proximodistally with the latter. It is interesting to note that both flagellar growth and rotation are asynchronous. Later, the nucleus enlarges and penetrates into the spermatid body. Finally, the ring of arching membranes is strangled and the young spermatozoon is detached from the residual cytoplasm. The mature spermatozoon presents two axonemes of the 9 +"1" trepaxonematan pattern, crested body, parallel nucleus and cortical microtubules, and glycogen granules. Thus, it corresponds to the type II spermatozoon, described in almost all Proteocephalidea. The anterior extremity of the gamete is characterized by the presence of an apical cone surrounded by the lateral projections of the crested body. An arc formed by some thick and parallel cortical microtubules appears at the level of the centriole. They surround the centriole and later the first axoneme. This arc of electron-dense microtubules disorganizes when the second axoneme appears, and then two parallel rows of thin cortical microtubules are observed. The posterior extremity of the male gamete exhibits some cortical microtubules. This type of posterior extremity has never been described in proteocephalidean cestodes. The ultrastructural features of the spermatozoon/spermiogenesis of the Proteocephalidea species are analyzed and compared.

Ultrastructural study of spermiogenesis and the spermatozoon of the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009, a parasite of the catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) (Siluriformes, Clariidae)

Spermiogenesis in the proteocephalidean cestode Barsonella lafoni de Chambrier et al., 2009 shows typical characteristics of the type I spermiogenesis. These include the formation of distal cytoplasmic protrusions forming the differentiation zones, lined by cortical microtubules and containing two centrioles. An electron-dense material is present in the apical region of the differentiation zone during the early stages of spermiogenesis. Each centriole is associated to a striated rootlet, being separated by an intercentriolar body. Two free and unequal flagella originate from the centrioles and develop on the lateral sides of the differentiation zone. A median cytoplasmic process is formed between the flagella. Later these flagella rotate, become parallel to the median cytoplasmic process and finally fuse proximodistally with the latter. It is interesting to note that both flagellar growth and rotation are asynchronous. Later, the nucleus enlarges and penetrates into the spermatid body. Finally, the ring of arching membranes is strangled and the young spermatozoon is detached from the residual cytoplasm. The mature spermatozoon presents two axonemes of the 9 +"1" trepaxonematan pattern, crested body, parallel nucleus and cortical microtubules, and glycogen granules. Thus, it corresponds to the type II spermatozoon, described in almost all Proteocephalidea. The anterior extremity of the gamete is characterized by the presence of an apical cone surrounded by the lateral projections of the crested body. An arc formed by some thick and parallel cortical microtubules appears at the level of the centriole. They surround the centriole and later the first axoneme. This arc of electron-dense microtubules disorganizes when the second axoneme appears, and then two parallel rows of thin cortical microtubules are observed. The posterior extremity of the male gamete exhibits some cortical microtubules. This type of posterior extremity has never been described in proteocephalidean cestodes. The ultrastructural features of the spermatozoon/spermiogenesis of the Proteocephalidea species are analyzed and compared.

Statistical mechanics of multi-edge networks

Statistical properties of binary complex networks are well understood and recently many attempts have been made to extend this knowledge to weighted ones. There are, however, subtle yet important considerations to be made regarding the nature of the weights used in this generalization. Weights can be either continuous or discrete magnitudes, and in the latter case, they can additionally have undistinguishable or distinguishable nature. This fact has not been addressed in the literature insofar and has deep implications on the network statistics. In this work we face this problem introducing multiedge networks as graphs where multiple (distinguishable) connections between nodes are considered. We develop a statistical mechanics framework where it is possible to get information about the most relevant observables given a large spectrum of linear and nonlinear constraints including those depending both on the number of multiedges per link and their binary projection. The latter case is particularly interesting as we show that binary projections can be understood from multiedge processes. The implications of these results are important as many real-agent-based problems mapped onto graphs require this treatment for a proper characterization of their collective behavior.

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe

This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections.

Quantifying seasonality along a latitudinal gradient: from stream temperature to growth of invasive mosquitofish

Most ecosystems undergo substantial variation over the seasons, ranging from changes in abiotic features, such as temperature, light and precipitation, to changes in species abundance and composition. How seasonality varies along latitudinal gradients is not well known in freshwater ecosystems, despite being very important in predicting the effects of climate change and in helping to advance ecological understanding. Stream temperature is often well correlated with air temperature and influences many ecosystem features such as growth and metabolism of most aquatic organisms. We evaluated the degree of seasonality in ten river mouths along a latitudinal gradient for a set of variables, ranging from air and water temperatures, to physical and chemical properties of water and growth of an invasive fish species (eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki ). Our results show that although most of the variation in air temperature was explained by latitude and season, this was not the case for water features, including temperature, in lowland Mediterranean streams, which depended less on season and much more on local factors. Similarly, although there was evidence of latitude-dependent seasonality in fish growth, the relationship was nonlinear and weak and the significant latitudinal differences in growth rates observed during winter were compensated later in the year and did not result in overall differences in size and growth. Our results suggest that although latitudinal differences in air temperature cascade through properties of freshwater ecosystems, local factors and complex interactions often override the water temperature variation with latitude and might therefore hinder projections of species distribution models and effects of climate change

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean basin : a case study in Catalonia, Spain

Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in north-eastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future stream flows. The largest reduction (22-48% for 2076-2100) of stream flows is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (22-32% for 2076-2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in stream flow, 50% and 34%, respectively (2076-2100). Thus, ecological flows might be noticeably impacted by climate change in the catchments, especially in the headwaters of those wet catchments.