Calibration and application of the MN2D dynamics model to the avalanches of Las Leñas (Argentina)

During the winters of 1999 and 2000 large avalanches occurred in the ski resort of Las Leñas (Los Andes, Mendoza, Argentina). On 8 September 1999 an avalanche of new, dry snow ran over a path with a 1000 m vertical drop. On 30 June and on 1 July 2000 five avalanches of similar vertical drop, which start with new snow, entrained very wet snow during their descent, and evolved into dense snow avalanches. To use the MN2D dynamics model correctly, calibration of model parameters is necessary. Also, no previous works with the use of dynamics models exist in South America. The events used to calibrate the model occurred during the winters of 1999 and 2000 and are a good sample of the kind of avalanches which can occur in this area of the Andes range. By considering the slope morphology and topography, the snow and meteorological conditions and the results of the model simulations, it was estimated that these avalanches were not extreme events with a return period greater than one hundred years. This implies that, in natural conditions, bigger, extreme avalanches could happen. In this work, the MN2D dynamics model is calibrated with two different avalanches of the same magnitude: dry and wet. The importance of the topographic data in the simulation is evaluated. It is concluded that MN2D dynamics model can be used to simulate dry extreme avalanches in Argentinean Andes but not to simulate extreme wet avalanches, which are much more sensitive to the topography.

The effect of tax enforcement on tax elasticities: Evidence from charitable contributions in France

Optimal tax formulas expressed in "sufficient statistics" are usually calibrated under the assumptionthat the relevant tax elasticities are unaffected by other available policy instruments.In practice though, tax authorities have many more instruments than the mere tax rates andtax elasticities are functions of all these policy instruments. In this paper we provide evidencethat tax elasticities are extremely sensitive to a particular policy instrument: the level of taxenforcement. We exploit a natural experiment that took place in France in 1983, when the taxadministration tightened the requirements to claim charitable deductions. The reform led to asubstantial drop in the amount of contributions reported to the administration, which can becredibly attributed to overreporting of charitable contributions before the reform, rather thanto a real change in giving behaviours. We show that the reform was also associated with asubstantial decline in the absolute value of the elasticity of reported contributions. This findingallows us to partially identify the elasticity of overreporting contributions, which is shown tobe large and inferior to -2 in the lax enforcement regime. We further show using bunching oftaxpayers at kink-points of the tax schedule that the elasticity of taxable income also experienceda significant decline after the reform. Our results suggest that optimizing the tax rate fora given tax elasticity when other policy instruments are not optimized can lead to misleadingconclusions when tax authorities have another instrument that could set the tax elasticity itselfat its optimal level as in Kopczuk and Slemrod [2002].

Rapid and sudden advection of warm and dry air in the Mediterranean Basin

Rapid advection of extremely warm and dry air is studied during two events in the Mediterranean Basin. On 27 August 2010 a rapid advection of extremely warm and dry air affected the northeast Iberian Peninsula during a few hours. At the Barcelona city center, the temperature reached 39.3 ° C, which is the maximum temperature value recorded during 230 yr of daily data series. On 23 March 2008 a rapid increase of temperature and drop of relative humidity were recorded for a few hours in Heraklion (Crete). During the morning on that day, the recorded temperature reached 34 °C for several hours on the northern coastline of this island.According to the World Meteorological Organization none of these events can be classified as a heat wave, which requires at least two days of abnormally high temperatures; neither are they a heat burst as defined by the American Meteorological Society, where abnormal temperatures take place during a few minutes. For this reason, we suggest naming this type of event flash heat. By using data from automatic weather stations in the Barcelona and Heraklion area and WRF mesoscale numerical simulations, these events are analyzed. Additionally, the primary risks and possible impacts on several fields are presented.

Deep incision in an Aptian carbonate succession indicates major sea-level fall in the Cretaceous

Long-term relative sea-level cycles (0 5 to 6 Myr) have yet to be fully understood for the Cretaceous. During the Aptian, in the northern Maestrat Basin (Eastern Iberian Peninsula), fault-controlled subsidence created depositional space, but eustasy governed changes in depositional trends. Relative sea-level history was reconstructed by sequence stratigraphic analysis. Two forced regressive stages of relative sea-level were recognized within three depositional sequences. The first stage is late Early Aptian age (intra Dufrenoyia furcata Zone) and is characterized by foreshore to upper shoreface sedimentary wedges, which occur detached from a highstand carbonate platform, and were deposited above basin marls. The amplitude of relative sea-level drop was in the order of tens of metres, with a duration of <1 Myr. The second stage of relative sea-level fall occurred within the Late Aptian and is recorded by an incised valley that, when restored to its pre-contractional attitude, was >2 km wide and cut 115 m down into the underlying Aptian succession. With the subsequent transgression, the incision was back-filled with peritidal to shallow subtidal deposits. The changes in depositional trends, lithofacies evolution and geometric relation of the stratigraphic units characterized are similar to those observed in coeval rocks within the Maestrat Basin, as well as in other correlative basins elsewhere. The pace and magnitude of the two relative sea-level drops identified fall within the glacio-eustatic domain. In the Maestrat Basin, terrestrial palynological studies provide evidence that the late Early and Late Aptian climate was cooler than the earliest part of the Early Aptian and the Albian Stage, which were characterized by warmer environmental conditions. The outcrops documented here are significant because they preserve the results of Aptian long-term sea-level trends that are often only recognizable on larger scales (i.e. seismic) such as for the Arabian Plate.

Deep incision in an Aptian carbonate succession indicates major sea-level fall in the Cretaceous

Long-term relative sea-level cycles (0 5 to 6 Myr) have yet to be fully understood for the Cretaceous. During the Aptian, in the northern Maestrat Basin (Eastern Iberian Peninsula), fault-controlled subsidence created depositional space, but eustasy governed changes in depositional trends. Relative sea-level history was reconstructed by sequence stratigraphic analysis. Two forced regressive stages of relative sea-level were recognized within three depositional sequences. The first stage is late Early Aptian age (intra Dufrenoyia furcata Zone) and is characterized by foreshore to upper shoreface sedimentary wedges, which occur detached from a highstand carbonate platform, and were deposited above basin marls. The amplitude of relative sea-level drop was in the order of tens of metres, with a duration of <1 Myr. The second stage of relative sea-level fall occurred within the Late Aptian and is recorded by an incised valley that, when restored to its pre-contractional attitude, was >2 km wide and cut 115 m down into the underlying Aptian succession. With the subsequent transgression, the incision was back-filled with peritidal to shallow subtidal deposits. The changes in depositional trends, lithofacies evolution and geometric relation of the stratigraphic units characterized are similar to those observed in coeval rocks within the Maestrat Basin, as well as in other correlative basins elsewhere. The pace and magnitude of the two relative sea-level drops identified fall within the glacio-eustatic domain. In the Maestrat Basin, terrestrial palynological studies provide evidence that the late Early and Late Aptian climate was cooler than the earliest part of the Early Aptian and the Albian Stage, which were characterized by warmer environmental conditions. The outcrops documented here are significant because they preserve the results of Aptian long-term sea-level trends that are often only recognizable on larger scales (i.e. seismic) such as for the Arabian Plate.

Redefining dropping out in online higher education: a case study from the UOC

In recent years, studies into the reasons for dropping out of higher education (including online education) have been undertaken with greater regularity, parallel to the rise in the relative weight of this type of education, compared with brick-and-mortar education. However, the work invested in characterising the students who drop out of education, compared with those who do not, appears not to have had the same relevance as that invested in the analysis of the causes. The definition of dropping out is very sensitive to the context. In this article, we reach a purely empirical definition of student dropping out, based on the probability of not continuing a specific academic programme following several consecutive semesters of "theoretical break". Dropping out should be properly defined before analysing its causes, as well as comparing the drop-out rates between the different online programmes, or between online and on-campus ones. Our results show that there are significant differences among programmes, depending on their theoretical extension, but not their domain of knowledge.

An Analysis of Eye Scanpath Entropy in a Progressively Forming Virtual Environment

A sign of presence in virtual environments is that people respond to situations and events as if they were real, where response may be considered at many different levels, ranging from unconscious physiological responses through to overt behavior,emotions, and thoughts. In this paper we consider two responses that gave different indications of the onset of presence in a gradually forming environment. Two aspects of the response of people to an immersive virtual environment were recorded: their eye scanpath, and their skin conductance response (SCR). The scenario was formed over a period of 2 min, by introducing an increasing number of its polygons in random order in a head-tracked head-mounted display. For one group of experimental participants (n 8) the environment formed into one in which they found themselves standing on top of a 3 m high column. For a second group of participants (n 6) the environment was otherwise the same except that the column was only 1 cm high, so that they would be standing at normal ground level. For a third group of participants (n 14) the polygons never formed into a meaningful environment. The participants who stood on top of the tall column exhibited a significant decrease in entropy of the eye scanpath and an increase in the number of SCR by 99 s into the scenario, at a time when only 65% of the polygons had been displayed. The ground level participants exhibited a similar decrease in scanpath entropy, but not the increase in SCR. The random scenario grouping did not exhibit this decrease in eye scanpath entropy. A drop in scanpath entropy indicates that the environment had cohered into a meaningful perception. An increase in the rate of SCR indicates the perception of an aversive stimulus. These results suggest that on these two dimensions (scanpath entropy and rate of SCR) participants were responding realistically to the scenario shown in the virtual environment. In addition, the response occurred well before the entire scenario had been displayed, suggesting that once a set of minimal cues exists within a scenario,it is enough to form a meaningful perception. Moreover, at the level of the sympathetic nervous system, the participants who were standing on top of the column exhibited arousal as if their experience might be real. This is an important practical aspect of the concept of presence.

A wolf in sheep"s clothing: carnivory in dominant sea urchins in the Mediterranean

Arbacia lixula and Paracentrotus lividus are the dominant sea urchins in the Mediterranean sublittoral, where they are key structuring species due to their grazing activity. It has been commonly accepted that competition between both species is minimized by specializing in different algal foods. A. lixula is considered to feed mainly on encrusting coralline algae, while P. lividus prefers fleshy macroalgae. We used stable isotope analysis to test if these species occupy different trophic positions at 3 locations in the western Mediterranean and one in Macaronesia. Our results show unambiguously that A. lixula always occupies a higher trophic level than P. lividus, with a δ15N comparable in some locations to strict carnivores such as Actinia schmidti or Marthasterias glacialis. A temporal monitoring at one locality showed that this signature of a higher trophic level is consistent throughout the year. These results are incompatible with the current belief of an herbivorous diet for A. lixula and suggest that it must be considered an omnivore tending to carnivory in Mediterranean ecosystems, feeding at least partially on sessile animals such as Cirripedia, Hydrozoa or Bryozoa. A parallel analysis of gut contents showed a predominance of vegetal items in both species, although A. lixula consistently had a higher abundance of animal components than P. lividus. Our results challenge the validity of using gut content observations alone for characterizing the trophic behaviour of omnivorous marine invertebrates that feed on a variety of food sources with different digestibility.

Microscopic-macroscopic approach for binding energies with the Wigner-Kirkwood method

The semiclassical Wigner-Kirkwood ̄h expansion method is used to calculate shell corrections for spherical and deformed nuclei. The expansion is carried out up to fourth order in ̄h. A systematic study of Wigner-Kirkwood averaged energies is presented as a function of the deformation degrees of freedom. The shell corrections, along with the pairing energies obtained by using the Lipkin-Nogami scheme, are used in the microscopic-macroscopic approach to calculate binding energies. The macroscopic part is obtained from a liquid drop formula with six adjustable parameters. Considering a set of 367 spherical nuclei, the liquid drop parameters are adjusted to reproduce the experimental binding energies, which yields a root mean square (rms) deviation of 630 keV. It is shown that the proposed approach is indeed promising for the prediction of nuclear masses.

Bernoulli correction to viscous losses: Radial flow between two parallel discs

For a massless fluid (density = 0), the steady flow along a duct is governed exclusively by viscous losses. In this paper, we show that the velocity profile obtained in this limit can be used to calculate the pressure drop up to the first order in density. This method has been applied to the particular case of a duct, defined by two plane-parallel discs. For this case, the first-order approximation results in a simple analytical solution which has been favorably checked against numerical simulations. Finally, an experiment has been carried out with water flowing between the discs. The experimental results show good agreement with the approximate solution

Effects of medium on nuclear properties in multifragmentation

In multifragmentation of hot nuclear matter, properties of fragments embedded in a soup of nucleonic gas and other fragments should be modified as compared with isolated nuclei. Such modifications are studied within a simple model where only nucleons and one kind of heavy nuclei are considered. The interaction between different species is described with a momentum-dependent two-body potential whose parameters are fitted to reproduce properties of cold isolated nuclei. The internal energy of heavy fragments is parametrized according to a liquid-drop model with density- and temperature-dependent parameters. Calculations are carried out for several subnuclear densities and moderate temperatures, for isospin-symmetric and asymmetric systems. We find that the fragments get stretched due to interactions with the medium and their binding energies decrease with increasing temperature and density of nuclear matter.

Deep incision in an Aptian carbonate succession indicates major sea-level fall in the Cretaceous

Long-term relative sea-level cycles (0 5 to 6 Myr) have yet to be fully understood for the Cretaceous. During the Aptian, in the northern Maestrat Basin (Eastern Iberian Peninsula), fault-controlled subsidence created depositional space, but eustasy governed changes in depositional trends. Relative sea-level history was reconstructed by sequence stratigraphic analysis. Two forced regressive stages of relative sea-level were recognized within three depositional sequences. The first stage is late Early Aptian age (intra Dufrenoyia furcata Zone) and is characterized by foreshore to upper shoreface sedimentary wedges, which occur detached from a highstand carbonate platform, and were deposited above basin marls. The amplitude of relative sea-level drop was in the order of tens of metres, with a duration of <1 Myr. The second stage of relative sea-level fall occurred within the Late Aptian and is recorded by an incised valley that, when restored to its pre-contractional attitude, was >2 km wide and cut 115 m down into the underlying Aptian succession. With the subsequent transgression, the incision was back-filled with peritidal to shallow subtidal deposits. The changes in depositional trends, lithofacies evolution and geometric relation of the stratigraphic units characterized are similar to those observed in coeval rocks within the Maestrat Basin, as well as in other correlative basins elsewhere. The pace and magnitude of the two relative sea-level drops identified fall within the glacio-eustatic domain. In the Maestrat Basin, terrestrial palynological studies provide evidence that the late Early and Late Aptian climate was cooler than the earliest part of the Early Aptian and the Albian Stage, which were characterized by warmer environmental conditions. The outcrops documented here are significant because they preserve the results of Aptian long-term sea-level trends that are often only recognizable on larger scales (i.e. seismic) such as for the Arabian Plate.

Deep incision in an Aptian carbonate succession indicates major sea-level fall in the Cretaceous

Long-term relative sea-level cycles (0 5 to 6 Myr) have yet to be fully understood for the Cretaceous. During the Aptian, in the northern Maestrat Basin (Eastern Iberian Peninsula), fault-controlled subsidence created depositional space, but eustasy governed changes in depositional trends. Relative sea-level history was reconstructed by sequence stratigraphic analysis. Two forced regressive stages of relative sea-level were recognized within three depositional sequences. The first stage is late Early Aptian age (intra Dufrenoyia furcata Zone) and is characterized by foreshore to upper shoreface sedimentary wedges, which occur detached from a highstand carbonate platform, and were deposited above basin marls. The amplitude of relative sea-level drop was in the order of tens of metres, with a duration of <1 Myr. The second stage of relative sea-level fall occurred within the Late Aptian and is recorded by an incised valley that, when restored to its pre-contractional attitude, was >2 km wide and cut 115 m down into the underlying Aptian succession. With the subsequent transgression, the incision was back-filled with peritidal to shallow subtidal deposits. The changes in depositional trends, lithofacies evolution and geometric relation of the stratigraphic units characterized are similar to those observed in coeval rocks within the Maestrat Basin, as well as in other correlative basins elsewhere. The pace and magnitude of the two relative sea-level drops identified fall within the glacio-eustatic domain. In the Maestrat Basin, terrestrial palynological studies provide evidence that the late Early and Late Aptian climate was cooler than the earliest part of the Early Aptian and the Albian Stage, which were characterized by warmer environmental conditions. The outcrops documented here are significant because they preserve the results of Aptian long-term sea-level trends that are often only recognizable on larger scales (i.e. seismic) such as for the Arabian Plate.

Design and evaluation of learning algorithms for dynamic resource management in virtual networks

Network virtualisation is considerably gaining attentionas a solution to ossification of the Internet. However, thesuccess of network virtualisation will depend in part on how efficientlythe virtual networks utilise substrate network resources.In this paper, we propose a machine learning-based approachto virtual network resource management. We propose to modelthe substrate network as a decentralised system and introducea learning algorithm in each substrate node and substrate link,providing self-organization capabilities. We propose a multiagentlearning algorithm that carries out the substrate network resourcemanagement in a coordinated and decentralised way. The taskof these agents is to use evaluative feedback to learn an optimalpolicy so as to dynamically allocate network resources to virtualnodes and links. The agents ensure that while the virtual networkshave the resources they need at any given time, only the requiredresources are reserved for this purpose. Simulations show thatour dynamic approach significantly improves the virtual networkacceptance ratio and the maximum number of accepted virtualnetwork requests at any time while ensuring that virtual networkquality of service requirements such as packet drop rate andvirtual link delay are not affected.

Análisis de viabilidad de la ejecución y puesta en marcha de un hotel con encanto en el Pirineo Aragonés

A través de este proyecto final de carrera se pretende analizar la viabilidad técnica y económica para la puesta en marcha de un hotel de montaña en una comarca concreta del Pirineo Aragonés, como alternativa de negocio. Aunque no podemos olvidar que es un sector que puede parecer saturado, se tratará de buscar el elemento diferenciador para superar esta amenaza competitiva. Desde el año 2000, el número total de turistas que llegan a España, ha ido ascendiendo año a año, hasta alcanzar valores máximos en 2007 y de nuevo en 2013. Las estadísticas demuestran que es un sector al alza y en la comunidad aragonesa aporta al PIB aragonés, cerca de 3.000 millones de euros. Por otro lado, la crisis ha provocado una bajada importante en los precios de los inmuebles y parcelas, por lo que nos aprovecharemos de esta oportunidad de negocio. A través de otros estudios que implementan el trabajo, llegamos a los resultados del análisis que demuestran que la inversión es posible. La modalidad escogida para la construcción y diseño del hotel, el efecto diferenciador en los productos y servicios ofertados y la cercanía del hotel de las estaciones de esquí, hacen posible el sueño de los futuros promotores, que apuestan por un tipo de negocio sostenible e integrado en la naturaleza y que respete la autenticidad sociocultural de la comarca y el entono.