Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

Background: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69- 75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.

Antireflection coatings from analogy between electron scattering and spin precession

We use the analogy between scattering of a wave from a potential, and the precession of a spin-half particle in a magnetic field, to gain insight into the design of an antireflection coating for electrons in a semiconductor superlattice. It is shown that the classic recipes derived for optics are generally not applicable due to the different dispersion law for electrons. Using the stability conditions we show that a Poisson distribution of impedance steps is a better approximation than is a Gaussian distribution. Examples are given of filters with average transmissivity exceeding 95% over an allowed band.

Electron scattering in isotonic chains as a probe of the proton shell structure of unstable nuclei

Electron scattering on unstable nuclei is planned in future facilities of the GSI and RIKEN upgrades. Motivated by this fact, we study theoretical predictions for elastic electron scattering in the N=82, N=50, and N=14 isotonic chains from very proton-deficient to very proton-rich isotones. We compute the scattering observables by performing Dirac partial-wave calculations. The charge density of the nucleus is obtained with a covariant nuclear mean-field model that accounts for the low-energy electromagnetic structure of the nucleon. For the discussion of the dependence of scattering observables at low-momentum transfer on the gross properties of the charge density, we fit Helm model distributions to the self-consistent mean-field densities. We find that the changes shown by the electric charge form factor along each isotonic chain are strongly correlated with the underlying proton shell structure of the isotones. We conclude that elastic electron scattering experiments on isotones can provide valuable information about the filling order and occupation of the single-particle levels of protons.