Aplicación de algunos modelos de series temporales al mercado de la electricidad en España

Hoy día, todo el mundo tiene un ojo puesto en el Mercado Eléctrico en nuestro país. No existe duda alguna sobre la importancia que tiene el comportamiento de la demanda eléctrica. Una de las peculiaridades de la electricidad que producimos, es que hoy por hoy, no existen aún métodos lo suficientemente efectivos para almacenarla, al menos en grandes cantidades. Por consiguiente, la cantidad demandada y la ofertada/producida deben casar de manera casi perfecta. Debido a estas razones, es bastante interesante tratar de predecir el comportamiento futuro de la demanda, estudiando una posible tendencia y/o estacionalidad. Profundizando más en los datos históricos de las demandas; es relativamente sencillo descubrir la gran influencia que la temperatura ambiente, laboralidad o la actividad económica tienen sobre la respuesta de la demanda. Una vez teniendo todo esto claro, podemos decidir cuál es el mejor método para aplicarlo en este tipo de series temporales. Para este fin, los métodos de análisis más comunes han sido presentados y explicados, poniendo de relieve sus principales características, así como sus aplicaciones. Los métodos en los que se ha centrado este proyecto son en los modelos de alisado y medias móviles. Por último, se ha buscado una relación entre la demanda eléctrica peninsular y el precio final que pagamos por la luz.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Ionospheric tomography using GNSS reflections

In this paper, we report a preliminary analysis of the impact of Global Navigation Satellite System Reflections (GNSS-R) data on ionospheric monitoring over the oceans. The focus will be on a single polar Low Earth Orbiter (LEO) mission exploiting GNSS-R as well as Navigation (GNSS-N) and Occultation (GNSS-O) total electron content (TEC) measurements. In order to assess impact of the data, we have simulated GNSS-R/O/N TEC data as would be measured from the LEO and from International Geodesic Service (IGS) ground stations, with an electron density (ED) field generated using a climatic ionospheric model. We have also developed a new tomographic approach inspired by the physics of the hydrogen atom and used it to effectively retrieve the ED field from the simulated TEC data near the orbital plane. The tomographic inversion results demonstrate the significant impact of GNSS-R: three-dimensional ionospheric ED fields are retrieved over the oceans quite accurately, even as, in the spirit of this initial study, the simulation and inversion approaches avoided intensive computation and sophisticated algorithmic elements (such as spatio-temporal smoothing). We conclude that GNSS-R data over the oceans can contribute significantly to a Global/GNSS Ionospheric Observation System (GIOS). Index Terms Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), Global Navigation Satellite System Reflections (GNSS-R), ionosphere, Low Earth Orbiter (LEO), tomography.

Atomic diffusion induced by stress relaxation in InGaAs/GaAs epitaxial layers

The origin of the microscopic inhomogeneities in InxGa1-xAs layers grown on GaAs by molecular beam epitaxy is analyzed through the optical absorption spectra near the band gap. It is seen that, for relaxed thick layers of about 2.8μm, composition inhomogeneities are responsible for the band edge smoothing into the whole compositional range (0.05